Dynasty Trade Value Chart: February

In last month's article, the focus was on anticipating some of the biggest dynasty valuation questions we are likely to face in the 2026 offseason. We are now getting some answers to those questions. The final week of January gave us an early clue about where the market may land on many key players: very early 2026 redraft ADP from thousands of real-money Underdog drafts. These early ADPs act as a canary in the coal mine for where dynasty valuations are eventually headed and give us a chance to move with, or even ahead of, the market in how we value players. February's dynasty trade value chart is largely focused on interpreting and contextualizing this early 2026 redraft ADP so we can skate to where the puck is most likely to end up heading into the offseason.

This early ADP provides real insight into which young players the fantasy community is most excited to draft in 2026, how the market is reacting to late-season fantasy breakouts, and which incoming rookies have the best chance to make an immediate impact.

The inclusion of rookies in these early 2026 drafts and the emerging consensus among thousands of high-volume drafters are especially helpful for understanding which names should already be on our radar. In the positional breakdowns below, we will analyze this early redraft ADP for the key rookies as a starting point for eventually incorporating them into the dynasty trade value chart. While these individual rookies are going to move up and down the board throughout the pre-draft process and will get a major value reset after the NFL Draft actually happens, we can get a very strong read on overall positional strengths and weaknesses of the class and a great early read on which rookies are most likely to matter from this data. After digesting this first wave of market signals, my next step will be diving into the Footballguys Rookie Guide, which releases shortly after the Super Bowl. Based on the work happening behind the scenes, this year's edition should be outstanding. 

Quarterback

As noted in the intro, the goal is to use these exceptionally early 2026 redraft ADP data points to better understand their implications for dynasty valuations. We will start by looking at a few quarterback ADPs that immediately stood out and are worth a deeper dive. Then we will turn to the full group of key incoming rookies and where the market is pricing them.

Caleb Williams (Redraft QB4)

The first ADP that leapt off the page was Caleb Williams, who is going off the board as QB4 behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Drake Maye. I expected his late-season and playoff heroics to push him up draft boards, but this is still slightly higher than I anticipated. There are two ways to view Williams, and I don't think either is right or wrong. They are two different approaches to the same valuation problem.

The first is a straightforward math-based evaluation. He is the QB4 in redraft and just turned 24. Dynasty can sometimes be made more complicated than it needs to be, when age plus the wisdom of the crowd around short-term upside often points you in the right direction. Using that framework, he probably deserves to be the dynasty QB3.

On the other hand, I have long advocated for what I call "sturdy" roster building. The idea is to anchor your dynasty foundation with players who not only have many useful fantasy seasons ahead of them, but also a meaningful track record of strong play. In recent Superflex startup seasons, I highlighted Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert as primary targets for this reason. That approach has helped avoid some of the valuation traps tied to players like C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson Sr., Jayden Daniels, and others who were pushed too high in dynasty based purely on youth plus redraft ADP. 

Joe Burrow (Redraft QB5)

I wasn't sure exactly what to expect from Burrow's early ADP after another injury-shortened stretch, but QB5 makes sense. Over his last 17 full games, he has thrown for 4,892 yards and 45 touchdowns. In a league that has seen a noticeable drop in passing yardage and touchdowns, Burrow has been one of the few exceptions.

He is worth highlighting because he is a perfect example of a player whose age should not be viewed as a negative, given the position he plays. Burrow will be a starting NFL quarterback for a very long time. He is nine years younger than Matthew Stafford, and on any timeline that is actually relevant for your dynasty team, he should be valued near the top of the list of quarterbacks most likely to still be productive fantasy starters in 2030.

Even from a long-term roster-building perspective, he is about as solid an investment as you can make. If his KeepTradeCut valuation translates directly to Superflex startup ADP, he will be my primary Round 2 target this offseason.

Trevor Lawrence (Redraft QB10)

Looking back at the 2025 season, one moment that stands out is Lawrence's gutsy Week 5 Monday Night Football win over the Chiefs. That game was a massive early setback for Kansas City and a launching point for Lawrence and the Jaguars. From Week 5 on, Lawrence was the QB1 in all of fantasy football.

His passing numbers over his final 13 games were strong, with 24 touchdowns tied for the third-most in the league behind only Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. What really stands out, though, is that he finally translated his size and athleticism into becoming a major factor as a runner. His nine rushing touchdowns over that stretch were second-most among quarterbacks, behind only Josh Allen, and more than double Jalen Hurts' total.

When you factor in that Lawrence just turned 26 and is tied to one of the game's most exciting offensive playcallers moving forward, he looks underrated in dynasty. His early redraft ADP confirms I'm not alone in that excitement. He's going nearly 30 spots ahead of Bo Nix in redraft and is only a few months older, which makes it difficult to justify Nix being ranked ahead of Lawrence in the current dynasty consensus.

Rookie Watch: Quarterback

In early 2026 redraft ADP, one rookie is already being drafted as a solid QB2, one is a late-round QB3 flyer, and one is barely being drafted at all due to the very real possibility he will not be in the draft. That's the entire rookie quarterback market right now. The takeaway is that fantasy managers see two relevant quarterbacks in this incoming class, with a massive gap after those two.

Fernando Mendoza (ADP: 140, QB21)
Mendoza is going off the board right between Sam Darnold and Bryce Young and a full round earlier than last year's No. 1 pick, Cam Ward. That is a strong early redraft ADP for an incoming rookie, especially one who is not a noted dual-threat option like Jayden Daniels. At this point, it feels close to a foregone conclusion that Mendoza will be the No. 1 overall pick to the Raiders and the top quarterback in dynasty rookie drafts. While it is possible he goes first overall in some rookie drafts, it is more likely he ends up in the 1.02 to 1.05 range alongside Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, and Jordan Tyson. Some early rookie mock drafts have the top wide receivers ahead of him, but my expectation is that Mendoza emerges as the consensus Superflex 1.02 by April and May.

Ty Simpson (ADP: 226, QB32)
The rookie skill position class is weak enough that it would not be surprising if Simpson ends up as a first-round pick in Superflex drafts once everything settles. If he becomes a mid-to-late first-round pick in the NFL Draft, it is hard to envision a scenario where he is not a consensus first-rounder in dynasty rookie drafts, given the overall weakness of the class. That said, there is no guarantee he earns that level of draft capital, and there is still plenty of time to track how his stock develops over the coming months.

Trinidad Chambliss (ADP: 278, QB40)
Chambliss has exhausted college eligibility and was denied another year by the NCAA. He is appealing the decision and also suing for an injunction in a Mississippi state court. His lawsuit argues that forcing him into the NFL Draft would cost him millions compared to the value of his current NIL deal. We have reached an interesting tipping point where even a player like Chambliss, projected as a second- or third-round pick and a top-three quarterback in this class, may earn significantly more by staying in college and is willing to fight for that opportunity in court.

Running Back

Omarion Hampton (RB8, 17 ADP)

One of the biggest takeaways from the early redraft ADP is just how excited drafters are about Hampton. He has leapfrogged proven, though aging, superstars like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs, creating a sizable gap between himself and the second tier of sophomore backs.

On paper, Hampton checks every box you want in a dynasty cornerstone. He has the ideal physical profile, is extremely young, owns first-round draft capital, and is stepping into a dream situation with Mike McDaniel now running what should be a potent, run-heavy offense that also features the running back in the passing game. It would not be shocking to see Hampton push for RB1 overall status.

That said, he is still a tricky valuation for me. Watching the Chargers last season, it never felt like he was clearly the best back on the roster. At times, both Najee Harris and Kimani Vidal appeared more effective. I'll add the caveat that I'm not grinding All-22 film, so take that impression with a healthy grain of salt. I'm very curious to see how the true film experts evaluate his rookie year, what the Chargers do in free agency to add depth, and how Jim Harbaugh and McDaniel talk about dividing touches in the backfield. I still love Hampton as a dynasty asset, but I have more questions about his role than I do about Ashton Jeanty, who is going just a few picks earlier.

2025 Rookie Hype Still Going Strong

Cam Skattebo, TreVeyon Henderson, and RJ Harvey are all going in the fourth round of early 2026 drafts, with Quinshon Judkins coming off the board at the top of Round 5. I'm mildly surprised that the serious injuries to Skattebo and Judkins have not scared off more early drafters. It is even more surprising that Henderson and Harvey's poor playoff showings have not dampened enthusiasm for their projected 2025 roles.

At running back, it almost always comes back to workload. Henderson has fully ceded the RB1 role to Rhamondre Stevenson, who has not fumbled since Week 5. Seeing Henderson valued as the RB7 on KeepTradeCut makes sense in the context of his talent and the appeal of a young offense. But that valuation relies heavily on optimistic projections and carries significant downside if he remains stuck in a change-of-pace role.

Rookie Watch: Running Back