Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday TD Fest
- This is a positive correlation play with solid value at a 4X multiple if it hits. The over/under for this game is 54 points and continues to inch up. Only one game this weekend projects for more offensive touchdowns.
- Cooper Kupp is averaging 1.25 touchdowns per game and it is not fluky based upon his usage. He has had multiple red zone targets in every single game this season.
- Darrell Henderson is averaging 2.0 rushing attempts per game inside the 10-yard line and has scored 100% of the Rams rushing touchdowns this season.
- Tyler Lockett has scored 0.75 touchdowns per game this season and this matchup sets up as one where he should excel. The Seattle pass offense is dominated by two players, Lockett and DK Metcalf. Jalen Ramsey has mostly matched up against Metcalf in this divisional matchup in recent years and limited his production. This sets up Lockett as the clear top target in the passing offense tonight in a potential shootout.
4: Hot young passers
- This is another positive correlation play in a game with shootout potential.
- Jalen Hurts has had thrown for 356.5 yards per game over his last two. We are seeing him emerge as one of the elite young passers in the NFL and the prop-makers have not yet caught up to this fact.
Only 3 QBs in the #NFL have 2,500 total yards of offense in their first 8 career starts (since 1969):— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) October 4, 2021
Cam Newton -- 2,603
Patrick Mahomes -- 2,591
Jalen Hurts -- 2,584#Eagles #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/BavHOfFte6
- Hurts progress as a passer has been especially noticeable in terms of his pocket presence and lack of panic when under pressure. In fact, he has been one of the league’s top passers when blitzed, which bodes well in a matchup against Carolina’s blitz-happy defense.
no team blitzes more than the Panthers (42%)— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 6, 2021
Jalen Hurts vs the blitz: 27/47, 8.7 YPA, 410 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
after facing Patrick Mahomes & Dak Prescott the last 2 weeks how does Philly's DEF stand up to Sam Darnold's Panthers?@LordReebs previews:https://t.co/CDLt4oeZLV
- Sam Darnold has three-straight 300+ yard passing games. He did that despite the fact that two of those games were Carolina blowouts that allowed more conservative game plans. In a potential shootout against the Eagles, Darnold has a great chance to keep his 300-yard passing game streak alive.
3: WR1s in good game environment
- This is a game between two teams who finally seem to be putting some things together offensively after slow starts to the season.
- Zach Wilson put together an impressive second half last week to lead the Jets to their first victory of the season, completing 10-of-15 passes for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns in the final 30 minutes of regulation.
- The connection between Wilson and Davis seems to be improving and Davis, who ranks top 10 in the NFL in air yards, is getting plenty of shots on deep balls. If he catches even a single long bomb from Wilson, he is a near lock for more than 60.5 receiving yards.
The 53 yard touchdown pass to Corey Davis from Zach Wilson traveled 56.8 air yards, which is the the longest completion by a #Jets quarterback since 2017, per NextGen Stats. pic.twitter.com/ew4sWtyVpE— Ali Ashraf (@loyalnyjetfans) October 5, 2021
- Calvin Ridley is seeing the workload we expected but has yet to explode for a big game. Over the last three weeks, he has been targeted 34 times (11.3 per game).
- As long as Ridley keeps seeing 10+ targets every game and over 110 air yards per game, he is due for some positive receiving yard regression towards his career means. He is averaging just 6.1 yards per target early this season. His previous season-low was 8.9 yards per target as a rookie. He averaged 9.3+ yards per target in 2019 and 2020. The yards are coming.
2: Florida matchup play
Leonard Fournette MORE than 48.5 rushing yards
Devante Parker MORE than 56.5 receiving yards
- Leonard Fournette has either a 49% rushing share or 20 carries in every single game this season. He has emerged as a focal point of the Tampa Bay offense.
Leonard Fournette played on 81% of the #Buccaneers snaps — the highest percentage for a Tampa Bay RB since Bruce Arians took over as head coach in 2019.— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 4, 2021
Fournette outgained his expectation for the first time in a game this season (+6 RYOE).#TBvsNE | #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/V59yV5NYUY
- Fournette is coming off of a big 92-yard rushing performance in a huge matchup against New England and has been looking more and more like the guy who was once the fourth-overall pick.
- Miami has struggled defending the run this season, ranking 27th in rushing yards against (547). Tampa Bay has been very aggressive in attacking the weakness of the opposing defense with adaptive game plans that look different each week. The logical plan would be to use a run-heavy approach for the second-straight week.
- Devante Parker is averaging 8.0 targets per game and has seen at least seven targets in every single game. He is already heavily involved in the Miami offense and coaches have made their intention clear to get him even more involved.
Miami Dolphins hoping to get DeVante Parker more involved in offense with earlier targets: https://t.co/LYFwT7osz2— Dolphin Nation (@Dolphin_Nation) October 5, 2021
- The Tampa Bay defense has given up a league-high 1,310 passing yards this season and has faced a league-high 186 pass attempts against.
- The likely game flow with Tampa Bay 10-point home favorites heavily favors the Buccaneers running game (playing with lead) and the Miami passing game (playing catchup).
1: MNF low passing totals