Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.

5: Thursday TDs

More than 2.5 touchdowns combined between Jonathan Taylor, Michael Carter, and Michael Pittman

• These group touchdown props have treated us very well in recent weeks, emerging as our most consistently profitable plays.
• There are three keys to identifying these props. A star running back, a game with sneaky shootout potential, and a high-volume pass catcher.

The @Colts have played two primetime games this year.

Jonathan Taylor: 33 carries/160 yards; 6 catches/119 yards, 3 total TDs

Michael Pittman Jr: 10 catches/194 yards/2 TDs

Can those primetime players keep making primetime plays Thursday in Indy? https://t.co/Lja540vCsv

— JJ Stankevitz (@JJStankevitz) November 2, 2021

• Let’s start with the star running back. In past weeks, most of these we have hit on have been due to correctly identifying a running back with a great shot at multiple touchdown upside. Last week, Joe Mixon anchored our trio and scored twice. Week 7, Derrick Henry got us there all by himself with three touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor is the anchor of our touchdown trio this week and a great candidate to score multiple touchdowns.

IND:

Jonathan Taylor has an ELITE role

Week 8 vs TEN:

Taylor-55 snaps, 16 carries, 28 routes, 4 targets, 3 RZ opps, 21.2 PPR pts
Hines- 21 snaps, 1 carry, 16 routes, 5 targets, 1 RZ opp, 6.4 PPR pts
Mack- 0 snaps

⬇️⬇️

— Josh Larky ↗️ (@jlarkytweets) November 3, 2021

• Taylor has scored in five straight games with two multiple touchdowns over that stretch.
• Taylor has also seen his overall role slowly increase as the season has gone on. Since Week 2, his percent of offensive snaps has increased every single week. Last week, he played a career-high 59 snaps.
• The matchup is ideal for Taylor. The Jets have allowed a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs (in seven games).
• We may end up having Michael Carter in the star running back group soon if last week is any indication. Carter was included in our touchdown prop that hit last week and he scored on the first Jets possession.
• Carter’s usage has been astronomical of late. He has averaged 13 carries and 11.5 targets (!) over the last two weeks. He has also played 70% or more of the snaps in both games. We are seeing Austin Ekeler level usage here.
• Michael Pittman has emerged as a go-to WR1 for the Colts. He is tied with Stefon Diggs for 13th in targets (65) in the NFL this season and tied for 14th with four receiving touchdowns.
• Pittman has eight targets inside the 10-yard line this season, including a career-high three last week.

4: Bengals still fun

More than 2.5 combined touchdowns between Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, and JaMarr Chase

• We are going back to the well for a third time. Twice in the last month, we have used Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase, and the running back facing the Bengals in this 4X touchdown prop and hit both times.
• Joe Mixon has been a consistent touchdown producer. He has scored in five straight games (twice last week) and has narrowly missed getting into the end zone a couple more times over that stretch.
• Over his last three games against the Browns, Mixon has averaged 21.7 carries and 3.0 targets per game. With the Bengals having a bye in Week 10 and badly needing to get back on track with a division win, expect Cincinnati to substitute less than normal and try to get everything they can from Mixon.
• Nick Chubb has fared well against the Bengals with three 100-plus yard rushing games in five previous meetings. In his last game against Cincinnati, Chubb carried 22 times for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• The Bengals gave up 258 total yards and 2 touchdowns to the Jets duo of Michael Carter and Ty Johnson last week. This is an improved Cincinnati defense but has shown signs of vulnerability against running backs in recent weeks.
• JaMarr Chase has taken the league by storm. He is tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (seven). He has been getting deep targets every week. Against the Jets last game, he also saw four targets inside the 10-yard line.

Most TDs vs. single coverage:

⭐️ D.K. Metcalf - 7
⭐️ Ja’Marr Chase - 7 pic.twitter.com/cqMZ5j8Had

— PFF (@PFF) November 2, 2021

3: Emerging star WRs

Justin Jefferson MORE than 16.5 fantasy points

Marquise Brown MORE than 13.5 fantasy points

• This is a correlation play based upon a belief that this game may turn into a pass-heavy affair between two teams with underrated passing attacks and running games that are not what they once were.
• The 13.5 number for Marquise Brown offers a ton of value. The Footballguys consensus projections for Brown are 5.1 catches for 78 yards and 0.66 touchdowns (16.9 fantasy points). We are getting a lot of value on this side of this prop.
• It feels like much of the fantasy community has not caught up to the fact that Brown has emerged as a fantasy star and is getting massive usage.

Marquise Brown had astronomical 330 air yards in Week 7 before the Ravens' Week 8 bye, has a team-high 19 targets in two games since Bateman returned to action, and faces off against the Vikings' pair of 4.6 40 outside CBs on a defense that no longer has Danielle Hunter (pec, IR)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 3, 2021

• On the other side, Justin Jefferson is coming off of the least productive game of his entire career. However, the combination of the Cowboys zone-heavy approach and star cornerback Trevon Diggs explain those struggles. Expect Jefferson to get back on track this week.

Justin Jefferson's season has been a tale of 2 coverages:

Vs Man Coverage
Targets: 24
PFF Grade: 91.4
Y/RR: 3.61

Vs Zone Coverage
Targets: 33
PFF Grade: 64.6
Y/RR: 1.63

— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) November 2, 2021

• The last time we saw the Ravens, they were giving up 416 yards and 3 touchdowns to Joe Burrow (almost entirely in the first three quarters). JaMarr Chase destroyed Baltimore’s man-heavy coverage scheme on his way to 201 receiving yards. Jefferson, Chase’s former LSU teammate, should also feast on the Ravens man coverage.

Ravens fans, we need to accept that Wink is the In-N-Out of defensive coordinators.

He has one thing on the menu. You like burgers and fries? Good cause that's all that's on the menu.

You like man with no safety help over the top? Wink's got you.

You want zone coverage? Nope😕

— Skepticgoat (@skepticgoat) September 15, 2021

2: Slot volume

Hunter Renfrow MORE than 12.5 fantasy points

Kadarius Toney MORE than 11.5 fantasy points

• Both of these fantasy projections are too low because they are not fully factoring how much volume these two wide receivers should get given their increasing roles in their offenses.
• Hunter Renfrow has scored 10.7-plus fantasy points six times in seven games. He has emerged as Derek Carr’s favorite target over the last month. He is not just getting open underneath on third downs but also developing into more of a playmaker after the catch, which is opening up more opportunities for him.

All of Hunter Renfrow's 11 MTFs(missed tackles forced) pic.twitter.com/CN0hHLqchq

— Marcus Johnson (@TheMarcJohnNFL) October 27, 2021

_
• With the NFL career of Henry Ruggs over, Renfrow should step into an even more prominent role in the Raiders offense. Expect Renfrow to see 10-to-15 more snaps each game now that Ruggs is no longer with the Raiders.
• When Kadarius Toney has been healthy and manning the slot (when he does when Sterling Shepard is out), he has been a volume hog. In Week 5 and Week 6, he saw 9 and 13 targets, respectively. In Week 7, he caught three passes on the opening drive before getting injured.
• Shepard is out this week, which means Toney is likely to play nearly every snap in the slot and should feast.

According to @JordanRaanan, Sterling Shepard (quad) is expected to miss some time

The last time Kadarius Toney manned the slot in Shepard’s absence, this is what happened 🛫 pic.twitter.com/K97LxCU5Kq

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 3, 2021

• We are getting solid value on both of these numbers according to our consensus projections. Renfrow (14.3) is projected for 1.8 more points and Toney (12.5) is projected for 1.0 more points.

1: QB Unders

Kyler Murray LESS than 23.5 fantasy points

Jimmy Garoppolo LESS than 16.5 fantasy points

• We went 2-for-2 on same-game QB unders last week and 0-for-2 on same-game QB overs. Lesson learned. This is a strong correlation play based upon a belief this game goes under the 45-point total.
• While Kyler Murray is a scary player to fade, he is going to have a hard time putting up more than 23.5 fantasy points purely as a passer. He is averaging just under 20 points per game this season as a passer and his production as a runner had fallen off a cliff even before the ankle injury he suffered last week. Since Week 4, Murray has averaged just 15.4 rushing yards per game and no rushing touchdowns.
• While Murray is expected to be able to play through his ankle injury this week, he is likely to be very limited in his movement. This is a week where Murray is going to be forced to be a pocket passer.

#AZCardinals QB Kyler Murray asked if he 'needs' ability to run to play #AZvsSF? "I don't need to run. If I have to, I have to. But...there's a difference between running and protecting yourself. You can't just be a sitting duck in the pocket."

— Paul Calvisi (@PaulCalvisi) November 3, 2021

• Aside from the pair of fluky rushing touchdowns last week, Jimmy Garoppolo has not been much of a fantasy producer this season. He is averaging just 238 passing yards and 1.0 passing touchdowns per game.
• The Cardinals rank second in DVOA against the pass but have struggled recently against the run. Green Bay provided a blueprint on how to beat the Cardinals last week. The Packers ran for 151 yards and dominated time of possession by over 15 minutes and squeaked out a win without their top pass catchers. Expect a similar game plan from San Francisco this weekend.

Week 8 Review

Last Week: +5

Season Total: (Even) A strong week gets us back to dead even for the season. The group touchdown prop game through for a 4X again. These have been our most consistently successful plays of the season and something worth focusing on moving forward. Passing under were the play this week. We had a couple of them but would have done even better with more.

• 5, Scary to go against: (+2) It is scary to bet against star players but we were correct to do so here. Aaron Rodgers (15.7) and Kyler Murray (11.1) both came in well below their fantasy point props of 22.5 and 25.5, respectively.
• 4, Bengals are fun again: (+3) We shot for a 4X with a target of more than 2.5 touchdowns combined for Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase, and Michael Carter. We got there before halftime with the first three touchdowns of the game scored by Carter, Mixon, and Chase. Mixon added a second touchdown later in the game just for good measure and an early dropped touchdown from Chase did not end up hurting us.
• 3, Falcons Flying: (-1) This one wouldn’t have made the list if we had known last Thursday morning that Calvin Ridley would be out. Alas, there are both positives and negatives of getting calls in early so it all evens out in the long run
• 2, Division Rivals: (+2) We had a feeling that the defenses of these two division rivals meeting for the second time already might keep the offenses in check. Josh Allen came in more than 45 yards below his passing prop and Tua Tagovailoa came in 30 under his.
• 1, Statement Game (-1) We thought we would get a statement game from Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs passing offense. While they got the win, this was not the emphatic performance we thought possible. Mahomes came in 30 yards below his passing prop and Daniel Jones also failed to hit on the other side.