The Many Paths for Jerry Jeudy

Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

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Jerry Jeudy has an average draft position of 90th overall and 36th among receivers, making him part of a pivotal tier that can make your fantasy season. While it’s essential to hit on early draft picks and avoid busts, nothing is more critical than drafting players in complementary roles who vastly outperform expectations. Receivers generally break out in either their second or third seasons; if they’re going to break out, making Jeudy someone, you must have a strong opinion as you approach the 7th or 8th round of your draft.

A Pedigreed Background

Nick Saban has built a modern dynasty at the University of Alabama, and its become one of the NFL’s most coveted feeder systems. The generational run arguably started in 2011 when four members of the Crimson Tide were drafted in the 1st round, including Julio Jones at No. 6 overall. In the last 11 years, Alabama has produced:

• 95 draft picks
• 62 picks in the first three rounds
• 36 first-round picks

Nine of the 95 draft picks have been wide receivers:

• Julio Jones (2011, 1.06)
• Kevin Norwood (2014, 4.23)
• Amari Cooper (2015, 1.04)
• ArDarius Stewart (2017, 3.15)
• Calvin Ridley (2018, 1.26)
• Henry Ruggs (2020, 1.12)
• Jerry Jeudy (2020, 1.15)
• Jaylen Waddle (2021, 1.06)
• Devonta Smith (2021, 1.10)

Jeudy was selected 15th overall last year after a three-year career at Alabama. He finished his career with 159 receptions, 2,742 yards, and 26 touchdowns in 36 games. At 6-foot-1, 192 pounds, Jeudy came into the league known as a precise route runner with good instincts and great hands but didn’t profile as an elite athlete. PlayerProfiler ranks Jeudy in the 65th percentile for speed and 41st percentile for burst; he’s not naturally explosive. But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. By comparison, Amari Cooper ranked 92nd in speed score, but a paltry 24th percentile in burst. Calvin Ridley was 64th in speed and a jaw-dropping 2nd percentile in burst; among the worst in the league. The bottom line? Measurables are only a small part of the equation when evaluating receiver outcomes.

Rookie Season: Neither Damning nor Enticing

Jeudy’s rookie season wasn’t one for the history books. He played all sixteen games, starting 14 of them, and finished the year as the 45th-ranked fantasy receiver.

• 113 targets
• 52 receptions
• 46% catch rate
• 856 yards receiving
• 16.5 yards per reception
• 3 receiving touchdowns
• 10 drops
• 8.1% drop rate
• 155.6 fantasy points (PPR)
• WR45 fantasy ranking (PPR)

The good news is plenty of rookie receivers had less impressive seasons and went on to greatness. The bad news is many more had comparable seasons and ended up falling short of top-end expectations. Here is how Jeudy’s rookie numbers compare to other receivers over the last 20 years:

Ranking (Rookie Receivers, 2001-2020)

• Fantasy Points – 45th
• Receiving Yards – 30th
• Receptions – 52nd

But let’s add context to those rankings:

Fantasy Points (155.6 Fantasy Points, Rank: 45th)

• Stefon Diggs, Calvin Johnson, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, and Brandin Cooks all scored fewer fantasy points as rookies
• Tyreek Hill (156.3) essentially matched Jeudy’s output as a rookie
• Austin Collie, Darius Slayton, Torrey Smith, Justin Blackmon, and Jordan Matthews are among those who scored more than Jeudy

Receiving Yards (856 yards, Rank: 30th)

• Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, D.J. Moore, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods, Dez Bryant, and Brandin Cooks are among those who had fewer yards as rookies
• Justin Blackmon, Jordan Matthews, Eddie Royal, and Michael Clayton had more receiving yards

Receptions (52, Rank: 52nd)

• Tyler Lockett, Calvin Johnson, Allen Robinson, and Dez Bryant are a few receivers with fewer rookie receptions
• DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown all tied Jeudy with 52 rookie grabs
• Davone Bess, Austin Collie, Greg Little, Kendall Wright, and Justin Blackmon are among those with more rookie receptions

So what does it all mean? Unfortunately, not much. Jeudy’s numbers were good enough to think he won’t be a complete bust and were better than some of the best receivers of the last 20 years. But they weren’t good enough to de-risk the rest of his career.

Context is King

Jeudy’s rookie numbers need context because no two situations are the same.

• Courtland Sutton’s injury – Sutton tore his ACL in Week 1. On the one hand, that accelerated Jeudy’s role as a lead target. On the other hand, it meant Jeudy faced more defensive attention than he would’ve with Sutton on the field.
• Drew Lock’s poor play – Lock was a disaster under center. He ranked 29th in QBR, 30th in adjusted net yards per attempt, 32nd in passer rating, 34th (out of 35) in interception rate, 27th in touchdown rate, and 35th (out of 35) in completion rate.
• Downfield targets – Jeudy was used primarily as an outside receiver, ranking 25th among all receivers with a 13.5-yard ADoT. When combined with Lock’s poor play, it helps explain Jeudy’s sub-50% catch rate; but it doesn’t completely absolve him of that concern.

The Many Futures of Jerry Jeudy

So what can we expect this season? Does Jeudy profile as a Year Two breakout? Consider:

• Courtland Sutton is healthy – I view this as a positive because it’ll make the offense more productive, allow for more sustained drives, and create more scoring opportunities while also limiting defensive attention on Jeudy.
• Pat Shurmur returns as offensive coordinator – A decidedly negative outcome as Shurmur has an uninspiring track record, particularly in adapting modern spread and spacing concepts into the passing attack.
• Uncertainty at quarterback – Drew Lock returns. Teddy Bridgewater was added. And DeShaun Watson is the long shot.

Outcome 1: Drew Lock Keeps the Job (Odds: 20%)

If Drew Lock outduels Teddy Bridgewater during the preseason and starts most games for Denver, it bodes ill for Jeudy on many levels. One, the offense won’t run at peak efficiency. Two, Lock has undeniable chemistry with Courtland Sutton. Expect Jeudy to be volatile, with boom and bust weeks, ultimately finishing somewhere in the Top 30-40 receivers.

Outcome 2: Teddy Bridgewater Takes Over (Odds: 30%)

Bridgewater is a better quarterback than Lock, at least based on what we’ve seen of them so far. But he’s not much better and brings his own flaws. He’s only thrown 53 touchdowns in 49 career starts and managed just 15 touchdowns last year in Carolina, despite a trio of incredibly athletic receivers in D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson. Fortunately, Bridgewater is accurate (66.5% career completion rate) and is preternaturally inclined to throw slants, curls, and comeback routes – which play to Jeudy’s strengths. If Bridgewater starts the entire season, expect Jeudy’s catch rate to bump up, his yards-per-catch to plummet, and his reception total to push him into low-end WR2 contention most weeks.

Outcome 3: A Carousel Involving Both (Odds: 45%)

History suggests teams without franchise quarterbacks tend to play multiple signal-callers. Neither Bridgewater nor Lock have played well enough to avoid looking over their shoulders. Given their respective limitations, the most likely outcome is each playing a portion of the season. It is probably a revolving door where the Week One starter gets benched and then gets another crack at the job later in the year. If this happens, expect most Broncos skill players to fall short of their best-case outcomes. Jeudy would finish at or near his current ADP (WR36), with some upside possible depending on vagueries of touchdown production.

Outcome 4: DeShaun Watson Reshapes the Future (Odds: 5%)

DeShaun Watson’s legal situation remains unresolved, but he surprised everyone by showing up to Texans training camp. National reporters say he has no intention of playing for the Texans, but he avoids fines and makes it easier to consider trading him by showing up. It’s unclear if and when Watson resolves his legal issues, but we cannot rule out a trade. If the Broncos acquired Watson, it would vault the Broncos' skill players toward the highest possible outcomes and make a strong case for Jeudy’s breakout.

Projections and Stats

Final Thoughts

Jerry Jeudy had an odd rookie season. He was forced into the lead role immediately and was unproductive on a per-target basis. Drew Lock was arguably the worst starting quarterback in the league, which didn't help, but Jeudy struggled in contested situations and had difficulty handling zone coverage, in particular. His rookie numbers were middling. Some of the best receivers of the last 20 years did worse, but plenty of rookies did better and never amounted to much. He neither de-risked his future nor condemned it. The Broncos were thought to be in the market for a massive quarterback overhaul, but the Aaron Rodgers rumors never materialized and the team avoided the position in the NFL draft. Veteran Teddy Bridgewater should beat out Lock in the preseason, but it's by no means guaranteed. A likely carousel between the two passers likely puts a ceiling on Jeudy's second year. Unless the Broncos pull off a coup and acquire DeShaun Watson, Jeudy probably takes an incremental step forward but fails to break out. Expect Jeudy to have boom and bust weeks, and rank somewhere between WR25 and WR40, depending on how many touchdown catches (which are unpredictable) he hauls in.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at wood@footballguys.com.

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