Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31st @ 8 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Buffalo | Miami | -14 | 48.5 | 31.25 | ««« | ««« | «« |
LA Rams | Houston | -16 | 46.5 | 31.25 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Kansas City | NY Giants | -10 | 52 | 31 | ««« | ««« | |
Arizona | Green Bay | -6.5 | 50.5 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Minnesota | Dallas | -3 | 51.5 | 27.25 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | New England | -4.5 | 49.5 | 27 | « | « | |
Cincinnati | NY Jets | -11 | 43 | 27 | « | «« | «« |
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | -4.5 | 49 | 26.75 | « | « | |
Indianapolis | Tennessee | -2.5 | 51 | 26.75 | « | « | |
Philadelphia | Detroit | -3.5 | 48 | 25.75 | |||
Atlanta | Carolina | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | |||
Dallas | Minnesota | 3 | 51.5 | 24.25 | |||
Tennessee | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 51 | 24.25 | |||
Denver | Washington | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | |||
Seattle | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | |||
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | « | ||
New England | LA Chargers | 4.5 | 49.5 | 22.5 | |||
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | 4.5 | 49 | 22.25 | |||
Detroit | Philadelphia | 3.5 | 48 | 22.25 | |||
Green Bay | Arizona | 6.5 | 50.5 | 22 | |||
Carolina | Atlanta | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||
San Francisco | Chicago | -4 | 39.5 | 21.75 | «« | ||
NY Giants | Kansas City | 10 | 52 | 21 | |||
Washington | Denver | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Seattle | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | |||
Chicago | San Francisco | 4 | 39.5 | 17.75 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 14 | 48.5 | 17.25 | |||
NY Jets | Cincinnati | 11 | 43 | 16 | |||
Houston | LA Rams | 16 | 46.5 | 15.25 |
Bye Weeks: Baltimore, Las Vegas
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Matthew Stafford (Rams), Josh Allen (Bills)
- Running Back: Darrel Williams (Chiefs), Darrell Henderson (Rams), Devin Singletary/Zack Moss (Bills)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Van Jefferson/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders/Cole Beasley/Tommy Sweeney (Bills)
- Defense: Rams
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- Running Back: James Conner/Chase Edmonds (Cardinals), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
- Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/A.J. Green/Rondale Moore (Cardinals)
- Defense: Bengals, Bills, 49ers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Carson Wentz (Colts)
- Running Back: Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Tyler Johnson/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), JaMarr Chase/Tyler Boyd/Tee Higgins (Bengals), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Jared Cook (Chargers), Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen/Tyler Conklin (Vikings), T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman/Parris Campbell/Mo Alie-Cox (Colts)
- Defense: Browns