2022 4-Round Single-QB Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

Photo: Bob Donnan, USA Today Sports

It's about that time of year... prospects are getting ready for the NFL Draft, coaches and general managers are hosting players, and dynasty managers are prepping themselves for their upcoming rookie drafts. Of course, landing spot will change things up a bit after the NFL draft, but one of the best ways to gauge prospect value is to do a mock draft. So let's jump right into this one...

Round 1

1.01 - Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

1.02 - Kenneth Walker, RB, Michigan State

1.03 - Drake London, WR, USC

1.04 - Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

1.05 - Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

1.06 - Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

1.07 - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

1.08 - Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M

1.09 - George Pickens, WR, Georgia

1.10 - Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

1.11 - Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan

1.12 - Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

Round 1 Analysis:

Rookie running backs with talent tend to get heavy workloads early in their career. So unless something drastic happens in the NFL draft, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III are the most likely players to be drafted at the top of dynasty rookie drafts. As my RB1, I do believe that Walker has a claim to the top spot in rookie drafts, but I know that the general consensus is leaning heavily towards Hall because of Walker's lack of receiving work, so expect Hall to be the first player off the board in almost any rookie draft.

Kenneth Walker had:

• Most yards after contact (1,168)
• Most forced missed tackles (89)
• Best Elusiveness rating on PFF (147.5)
• 2nd Most rush yards (1,646)

Then he weighed in BIGGER than we thought (211) and ran FASTER than we thought (4.38).

Walker is still my RB1. pic.twitter.com/kaeLllKfJV

— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoBrownGM) March 5, 2022

After those top two running backs, there are four or five different wide receivers that could all be considered the top guy based on their landing spot. If any of the top five rookie receivers end up in Green Bay or Kansas City, they could shoot up rookie draft boards and even be considered with one of the top two picks. I believe that Drake London is most likely to be the first receiver off the board in the NFL draft (likely to the Atlanta Falcons at 1.08) and that capital will be hard to ignore. Wilson, Williams, and Olave all offer a speedy skillset that could work in a variety of offenses, so their landing spots will determine a lot. As of now, Jameson Williams is still my WR1 in the class, but I know that not every dynasty manager will have that opinion. The player with the most to gain or lose from their landing spot is Treylon Burks. Burks will need a patient coaching staff that's willing to teach him the nuances of route running and use him in creative ways. To me, Burks has the most question marks to his game and he's the player that I'd be least comfortable taking with a top seven rookie draft pick. The general public seems to really like Treylon and their banking on his traits at the next level, so expect to see him as a top four or five pick in your rookie draft.

At the eighth pick, Isaiah Spiller came off the board. Spiller was once seen as a potential RB1 candidate, but a less than stellar pre-draft process has caused him to slip outside of the top seven picks. He's still a talented player who should get some decent draft capital in the NFL draft and find himself in a contributing role early in his NFL career. The slower 40-time doesn't scare me away, so if Spiller does fall this far in my rookie drafts, I'd gladly scoop him up. He's a big back with top-tier receiving potential. With the final four picks in the first round, dynasty managers are likely to see the receiver quartet of Pickens, Dotson, Moore, and Watson (that sounds like a cool law firm) go off the board In any given order. The general consensus appears to love the potential of George Pickens, so if he gets NFL draft capital in the late first or early second round, he'll likely be selected in the top ten picks in dynasty rookie drafts.

Round 2

2.01 - Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

2.02 - David Bell, WR, Purdue

2.03 - Zamir White, RB, Georgia

2.04 - Jerome Ford, RB, Cincinnati

2.05 - Dameon Pierce, RB, Florida

2.06 - Brian Robinson, RB, Alabama

2.07 - Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State

2.08 - Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama

2.09 - Tyler Allgeier, RB, BYU

2.10 - Rachaad White, RB, Arizona State

2.11 - James Cook, RB, Georgia

2.12 - Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Round 2 Analysis:

This draft class doesn't have the same talent at the quarterback position as last season, but Malik Willis still boasts some massive rushing potential and a cannon for an arm. Willis is likely going to be the first passer taken in rookie drafts and most non-Superflex rookie drafts will feature him being selected early in the second round. Nobody has seen their draft stock fall more than Purdue wide receiver, David Bell. After running a 4.65 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, Bell followed up with a 4.71 at his pro day. The combine doesn't necessarily make or break a player, but concerns about Bell's lack of athleticism and separation when running routes could have him drop into the third round of the NFL draft. Bell is still a very talented player with a highly productive college resume, so he could still find himself in starting role if he lands in the right spot. In this mock draft, there was a run on running backs that saw Zamir White, Jerome Ford, Dameon Pierce, and Brian Robinson all get selected in the top eighteen picks. White, Ford, Pierce, and Robinson all have the potential to be selected in the third round of the NFL Draft. Each of them has the size to be a contributing part of an NFL backfield in year one.

This should have been “no gain” or a “loss” by Dameon Pierce.

pic.twitter.com/3e9E7pQsAZ

— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoBrownGM) March 31, 2022

One of my favorite picks in this mock draft is the tight end out of Colorado State, Trey McBride, who is also the top tight end in this year's draft class. McBride has the best hands out of all the tight ends, and his 4.56 40-yard dash proves that his run after catch ability should translate to the next level. If I have an early second-round rookie draft pick, I don't think I'll be letting Trey McBride slide past me. The back half of the second round has some nice lottery ticket picks. Jalen Tolbert is one of the last remaining receivers with true alpha traits and production. Tyler Allgeier, Rachaad White, and James Cook are all productive college backs, with receiving ability, who could see their dynasty draft stock soar into the Top 15 if they get day2two NFL draft capital. The last pick of Round 2 was Kenny Pickett, a guy who actually might be an early selection in the NFL draft and the first quarterback off the board. I, personally, won't be drafting any quarterbacks in the first two rounds of my rookie drafts, but I can see Pickett having a solid career as a Kirk Cousins-type of a fantasy asset.

Round 3

3.01 - Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State

3.02 - John Metchie, WR, Alabama

3.03 - Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson

3.04 - Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Kentucky

3.05 - Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame

3.06 - Pierre Strong, RB, South Dakota State

3.07 - Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

3.08 - Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

3.09 - Tyler Badie, RB, Missouri

3.10 - Kennedy Brooks, RB, Oklahoma

3.11 - Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA

3.12 - Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

Round 3 Analysis:

Rookie drafts tend to have runs as the value starts to shift around from position to position. At the start of round three, the value is found at the wide receiver position. Khalil Shakir is one of my favorite prospects in the NFL draft and I think he has the potential to be the next Amon-Ra St.Brown in his rookie season. Metchie, Ross, and Robinson are each so different from one another but could find themselves being drafted late on day two of the NFL Draft. Remember when I said that "Nobody has seen their draft stock fall more than Purdue wide receiver, David Bell"? I was completely wrong. Kyren Williams went from being a potential top-five dynasty rookie pick to an almost certain third-round selection in rookie drafts. Williams may not be a top-ten rookie running back anymore, but he has a passing-down skillset that will allow him to contribute early in his career and be an integral part of an NFL team's passing game.

Just wanted to say that I absolutely nailed my Kyren Williams comp with Devin Singletary.

40: 4.65 (KW) / 4.66 (DS)
Vert: 32 (KW) / 35 (DS)
Broad: 116 (KW) / 117 (DS) pic.twitter.com/RcvZe5eeDG

— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoBrownGM) March 8, 2022

Pierre Strong is one of those names that people love. Strong had over 1,600 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns in his final season at South Dakota State. He fits the mold of a mid-round running back gem who has breakaway speed (4.37) and production to be an analytical darling. At some point in rookie drafts, dynasty managers will have to decide if they want to get the RB13, WR16, or start taking shots at early prospects at premium positions like quarterback and tight end. This quarterback group is pretty underwhelming, but they all have tools that could make them fantasy relevant. Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, and Sam Howell all have rushing ability, strong arms, and accuracy struggles. It will be intriguing to see if any of those three quarterback prospects end up getting first-round draft capital. It appears that NFL general managers are much higher on Desmond Ridder than the fantasy community, so if he ends up going to the Steelers in the first round, his stock could easily fly up into the second round of rookie drafts and he could become the rookie QB2 in some dynasty rankings.

Just like Pierre Strong Jr, Tyler Badie, and Kennedy Brooks were productive college running backs that could see themselves getting picked in the NFL draft early on day three. Both Badie and Brooks have that "Elijah Mitchell" profile that could allow them to easily find their way into productive roles as rookies. Earlier in the off-season, I actually labeled Kennedy Brooks as a prospect who could potentially be "The Next Elijah Mitchell".

The third round finishes up with Greg Dulcich, my TE2, coming off the board. Dulcich has a lot of the same physical tools as the aforementioned Trey McBride, he just didn't quite have the same speed or production. Late in the third round, he could be a very sneaky grab for a dynasty manager that needs a young tight end prospect to develop behind a starter.

Round 4

4.01 - Ty Chandler, RB, North Carolina

4.02 - Romeo Doubs, WR, Nevada

4.03 - Isaiah Likely, TE, Coastal Carolina

4.04 - Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis

4.05 - Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati

4.06 - Kevin Harris, RB, South Carolina

4.07 - Jelani Woods, TE, Virginia

4.08 - Zonovan Knight, RB, North Carolina State

4.09 - Carson Strong, QB, Nevada

4.10 - Keaontay Ingram, RB, USC

4.11 - D'Vonte Price, RB, FIU

4.12 - Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor

Round 4 Analysis:

The fourth round of rookie drafts is where we really see dynasty managers swing for the fences and just pick names they might recognize from a stat sheet or highlight reel. Some names from this group that I really like are Ty Chandler and Kevin Harris. I even think Chandler might end up going earlier in most rookie drafts because of his all-around skill set. Harris on the other hand is an under-the-radar name that most people may not know. In 2020, Harris led South Carolina with over 1,100 rushing yards, 21 receptions, and 16 total touchdowns.

My player comp for, South Carolina RB, Kevin Harris ➡️ James Robinson.

• Doesn’t have elite speed, but he can give you long runs

• Nearly impossible to take down

• Low center of gravity to be shifty and make the first defender miss. pic.twitter.com/Ngh90bz0SL

— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoBrownGM) January 14, 2022

Prior to the 2021 season, Harris had surgery to remove a cyst from a nerve in his back, so as far we know, he never had a real physical injury that teams should be worried about at the next level. Harris could absolutely be the next James Robinson for an NFL squad that takes him late in the NFL draft. For me, I'd just be banking on talent winning out and Harris seeing the field earlier than expected in his NFL career; 220lb runners with his skill don't come along very often so I think he has a good shot at cracking an NFL starting lineup. Calvin Austin III is a gadget guy that fits the Jakeem Grant mold: he's small, he's fast, and he's limited in what he can do for an NFL team.

This late in the draft, the tight end position becomes very intriguing because of names like Isaiah Likely and Jelani Woods. Likely and Woods are athletic guys who could work into a rotation for a tight end needy NFL franchise like the New York Giants or Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Woods is especially enticing because of his athletic profile; he had a RAS (relative athletic score) of 9.97 out of 10. To give more context, Woods measured in a 6-7, 253lbs, ran a 4.61 in the 40-yard dash, and put up 24 reps on the bench press. When it comes to tight ends, it usually helps to bet on the freak athletes like Jelani Woods who can not only produce but potentially even make the leap into elite status at the tight end position. The last guy I want to profile is Carson Strong, the quarterback from Nevada. I actually really like Carson Strong on film. He has the NFL size, rocket launcher arm, and put up excellent numbers in Nevada's air-raid offense. The issue with Strong is that he has a degenerative knee issue that can cause chronic pain and likely shorten his career. NFL teams likely won't take Strong with an early pick, but he could be a 3rd or 4th round selection in the NFL draft that could impress coaches in the right situation. He's a smart kid with plenty of experience and more than enough arm talent to lead an NFL offense, but with so many question marks, I'd rather not select him in the top 40 picks of my dynasty rookie draft.

Follow @AlfredoBrownGM