3 Lessons Learned After Week 2

Like most of you, I’m still adjusting to the new season. It’s like watching a thriller-mystery movie and we’re focused on the action while simultaneously searching for clues. But we’re only through two weeks. We’ve got a picture, but it’s still too blurry. Regardless, let me sift through the data and review my lessons learned from the week.

Quarterback: Marcus Mariota, Falcons

Week 2 Results: (Projected) 19.6, (Actual) 13.4

I’ll be honest. I thought Atlanta’s offense would look much worse. Not just because of Mariota, but a lacking skill group outside of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. No shade toward Drake London, but we didn’t know how he’d look after his preseason injury. Regardless, it was fair to question Mariota’s fantasy utility. But, after Week 2, fantasy managers should look for him if they need a quarterback streaming option.

Advice Moving Forward

Use Mariota as a matchup-based starter. His passing efficiency combined with the rushing can serve as a viable floor. Plus, Atlanta’s defense should force potential shootouts against productive offenses.

Mariota flashed his running ability when he was still in Las Vegas. So, I was comfortable with the rushing component of his fantasy production. It was the passing portion I couldn’t square. He hasn’t started two games since 2019, and I wanted to believe his elbow injury was his downfall. So far, it looks like he’s doing fine.

Let’s contextualize Mariota’s situation. London leads the pass-catchers with a 37.4% air yard share. Pitts is close by at 24.2% but only has 38 receiving yards. Mariota has had to rely on KhaDarel Hodge and Olamide Zaccheaus to move the offense. And yet, he’s 11th in EPA per play despite the subpar supporting cast. Plus, we’ve still got his rushing upside to consider.

It’s not like designed runs count for more fantasy points. We’ll take whatever we can get. However, I’d look to quarterbacks with a higher designed run rate for stability. Their mobility is a part of the offense and not just a reaction to pressure. So we can see a level of rational coaching in getting Mariota out in space. Mariota also has six attempts from inside the 20-yard line. It’s all we need for a starter.

But he’s not an every-week option. Pitts is still underutilized, and nobody’s rostering Atlanta’s third or fourth option. But, like this week against Seattle’s porous defense, fantasy managers can plus Mariota in if they need some help at quarterback until further notice.

Running Back: Austin Ekeler, Chargers

Week 2 Results: (Projected) 18.2, (Actual) 18.4

If you didn’t watch TNF or even catch any Week 1 highlights, you’d be fine with Austin Ekeler’s output so far. Not ecstatic as he’s yet to find the paint. But you’d be fine. He’s still a top-12 RB on a productive offense, and we can’t ask for much more. However, I can feel the waves of panic coming off those who’ve seen the games. Regardless, I’m not worried yet.

Advice Moving Forward

Trade for or hold Ekeler. His usage matches or exceeds how the Chargers deployed him last year. Los Angeles has more options, but Ekeler is still their primary running back.

I’ll be honest. I’m confused by the concern for Ekeler since he told us this was coming. It’s something he and the coaching staff wanted to keep him fresh. But there’s an uproar when we see it. My Twitter timeline turned into a slot machine with consternation around Sony Michel or Joshua Kelley being on the field. However, Ekeler is still the leader in the clubhouse.

I pulled Ekeler’s situational usage through 2022 and compared it to last year. Outside of early downs, he’s actually getting more work. Ekeler’s tied for second in targets, and his 29 rushing attempts are more than the combined total for his backups. He’s fine. It’s the offense we should monitor.

Los Angeles was sixth in neutral pace in 2021. As a result, they ran the fifth-most plays. They’re 14th in pace through the first two weeks. And sadly, they lack aggression.

Justin Herbert’s 6.6 aDOT ranks 22nd amongst all passers. He was 24th last season. Shorter passes combined with fewer plays result in reduced high-value touches for Ekeler. Last week, Los Angeles fell below the league average in red-zone attempts at 9. With Herbert's rib injury, it may take another week, but Ekeler can still be a top scorer as the season unfolds.

Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson, Jets

Week 2 Results: (Projected) 7.6, (Actual) 30.0

Do the Jets have a fantasy-friendly offense?

They’re ninth in total through two weeks. Joe Flacco has thrown for 300-plus yards in consecutive games for the first time since 2016. And Garrett Wilson has been the source of about a quarter of those yards to start his rookie campaign.

Fantasy production tends to be at the intersection of talent and situation. We’re (generally) good judges of talent, especially when a team uses a 10th-overall selection on a player. But their situation is subjective. I was skeptical of Wilson’s outlook in New York, but his Week 2 performance warranted a closer look.

Advice Moving Forward

Pick up or hold Wilson. His usage metrics match the profile of a WR1 even after facing two tough matchups. It may take an adjustment period after Zach Wilson returns, but Wilson is their primary receiving option.

We know rookie wide receivers typically take time to develop. There’s nuance to their game and rapport with their quarterback they need to have before taking a step forward. And with Garrett Wilson, we expected a longer transition after Zach Wilson went down early in the preseason. But talent (vastly) outweighed situation in this case.

Wilson’s usage improved across the board. He saw jumps in literally every opportunity metric. Even his red-zone target share, which is generally volatile, increased. But his air yard share was what caught my eye.

It’s one of our best indicators of future performance. Air yards capture quarterback intent while qualifying a receiver’s ability to get those yards. Sure, a deep bomb might juice the total a few times. But air yards, like targets, are earned. And Wilson’s share stacks up with some of the best in the game.

I realize it’s a two-game sample. But, at the same time, it’s notable a rookie would even compare. His classmates all fall short of this list. Every sign points to a continuing positive trend as the season progresses.

But I know. It’s the Jets. You see the team abbreviation, your eyes glide past the name, and you continue to scroll. However, we can’t ignore Wilson’s usage. He’s developing into a premiere wide receiver and is worthy of a spot on your roster if you can acquire him.