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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
Eno Benjamin MORE than 35.5 rushing yards
Chris Olave MORE than 65.5 receiving yards
- Eno Benjamin was not efficient with his carries in his first week as a starter and managed just 37 rushing but the usage was fantastic. He played 87% of the snaps and had 15 carries. With a similar workload likely assuming James Conner is again out, he is very likely to again rush for more than 35.5 yards.
Tough week last week as a starter but I’m back in on Eno Benjamin as a top 20 play this week if James Conner can’t go. Via the #FFHappyHour podcast @peacock @NBCSEdgeFB @croucherJD pic.twitter.com/hR7XLIRzsA— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) October 19, 2022
- New Orleans has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards (603) to opposing running backs.
- The Saints are projected for well over 200 passing yards in this matchup and it is hard to see how the team gets there without Olave having another big game.
- Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are still out, making Olave the clear focus of the passing game.
- Olave topped 65.5 receiving yards in Week 2 (80 yards), Week 3 (147 yards), and Week 4 (67 yards), and was well on his way again in Week 5 (54 yards) before suffering a concussion midway through the game.
- Despite missing a game and a half with a concussion, Olave still easily leads the NFL in air yards with 744. The next closest is Davante Adams (592).
4: Struggling Stars
Aaron Jones MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
Terry McLaurin MORE than 10.5 fantasy points
- This is a slight correlation play based upon the belief we see a bit more offense than projected in this matchup.
- 10.5 fantasy points is simply too low of a number for Terry McLaurin to not roll the dice on him hitting the over.
- Despite a slow start to the season, McLaurin has still topped 10.5 fantasy points in three of five games.
- McLaurin had 77 catches for 1,053 yards last season catching passes almost exclusively from Taylor Heinecke.
- Aaron Jones is coming off of one of his worst performances in recent memory, rushing for just 19 yards on 9 carries last week against the Jets. Expect a bounce back this week and take advantage of the low over/under. The advanced stats all point to the need for the Packers to build their offense around Jones moving forward.
#Packers RBs ...@PFF Rushing Grade— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 19, 2022
Aaron Jones: 85.8
A.J. Dillon: 72.3
PFF Elusive Rating:
Dillon: 25.2@fboutsiders DVOA:
Dillon: -6.5%@NextGenStats Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt:
- Jones has scored more than 14.5 fantasy points in 23 of his last 37 games (62%).
3: Growing Roles
Travis Etienne MORE than 45.5 rushing yards
WanDale Robinson MORE than 36.5 receiving yards
- Early in the season, we saw the Jaguars lead on the more experienced James Robinson in the run game but things have started to shift in the direction of Etienne who has back-to-back weeks of double digit carries.
% of carries stuffed for no gain or a loss (PFF):— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 18, 2022
Travis Etienne: 5.6% - tied for 9th lowest rate
James Robinson: 17.3% - last among 39 qualified RBs
- Everything we have seen from Etienne points to a player who has earned even more opportunities going forward. He looks incredibly explosive and has averaged 7.1 or more yards per carry in three of five games.
Travis Etienne’s rush yards over expected average of 1.93 is fifth in the NFL among RBs. He’s sixth in yards per carry at 5.6.— Jordan de Lugo (@jordandelugo) October 19, 2022
- The Giants have given up the third-most rushing yards (707) to opposing running backs.
- Despite a 5-1 record, the Giants wide receivers have mostly been awful. There is a clear opportunity for WanDale Robinson to emerge as a go-to option in the passing game.
In love with these intermediate targets out of the slot/stack for Wan'Dale Robinson (final two plays)— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 20, 2022
Clear space for the only (current) WR with juice on the Giantshttps://t.co/wgFLTtZO5N pic.twitter.com/pSuZiJCpkM
- In his first game back from injury, the Giants clearly wanted to scheme him some touches. He had four targets on just 15 snaps. Expect that snap count to tick up a good bit in his second week back but for the efficiency (2.5 receiving yards per snap) to stay high.
2: Secondary Targets in Vegas
Hunter Renfrow MORE than 45.5 receiving yards
Nico Collins MORE than 41.5 receiving yards
- Nico Collins has had 58 or more receiving yards in three of his last four games.
- Collins has seen his snap share steadily increase in each game, with a season-high 81% in his last game.
- With Brandin Cooks in his ninth season, he has shown some signs of starting to slow down a bit while Collins has been emerging as the go-to passing game target.
- It is tough to get a read on Renfrow given that he has missed two games and parts of two others. However, with the Las Vegas offense struggling to put it all together, the gut feeling here is that Renfrow will have a breakout performance.
- Renfrow has topped 45.5 receiving yards in 13 of his last 20 games (65%).
1: Rolling with DK
DK Metcalf MORE than 68.5 receiving yards
Keenan Allen LESS than 60.5 receiving yards
- Keenan Allen is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. He is also 30 years old and coming off of a serious hamstring injury. If he plays this week, expect him to be eased back in.
- DK Metcalf has a consistent role in the Seahawks offense. Over the last four weeks, he has had a 29.5% market share of targets and averaged 9.3 targets per game.
- Metcalf has a great matchup this week against struggling J.C. Jackson, who was benched during a brutal performance against the Broncos last week. Jackson has not adjusted well to the Chargers zone-heavy scheme and may not be fully recovered from ankle surgery.