Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Touchdown Upside
- By targeting fantasy points instead of receiving yards, we are targeting two players with high touchdown expectations and low enough props that a single touchdown makes them extremely likely to hit their over.
- The matchup against the Lions is elite for Gabe Davis. The Lions are allowing just under 3.0 seconds in opponent average time to throw, which has led to opposing quarterbacks having the highest aDOT (9.1 yards). Not only are teams throwing deep at a high rate against the Lions, they are having success doing it with the second-highest passer rating on deep balls.
- Davis is the go-to deep ball target for the Bills. Over the last two weeks, Davis has had 41.1% and 49.5% of the team air yards.
Don't look now, but Gabe Davis has a target share of 24% or higher in 3 of the past 4 games.— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
Davis before the Week 7 bye:
- 13% target share
- 28% air yardage share
- 23% target share
- 36% air yardage share
- Jamaal Williams has scored multiple touchdowns in half of his games this season. Two touchdowns gets you the over even if Williams does nothing else.
- Williams is also getting a ton of volume in the run game. He has at least 15 carries in seven of his last eight games.
4: Dual Threat Unders
- Barkley and Pollard have been the engines of their respective offenses over the past month. Both have had higher than normal workloads. Barkley had 35 carries in Week 10 and had 198 rushing attempts at the midway point of the season. He looked like a guy who was suffering from overuse last week when he rushed for less than 1.5 yards per carry against an awful Lions defense last week.
- It would make sense to see both Barkley and Pollard get a few more looks in the passing game and a few less rushing attempts than normal in this matchup.
- Pollard has seen six targets in each of the last two games and racked up 109 yards and two touchdowns as a receiver last week. With Ezekiel Elliott expected to take on a larger share of the rushing attempts, Pollard should settle back into a role in which he plays 40-to-50% of the snaps and is an explosive change of pace back.
3: Cowboys Onslaught
- This is a correlation play with 6X upside if the Cowboys dominate this game as they did last week against the Vikings.
- The Cowboys have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL and have dominated the rivalry against the Giants of late.
Dak Prescott's last 9 starts vs Giants— NFL on CBS ðŸˆ (@NFLonCBS) November 23, 2022
Week 15, 2021 WIN
Week 5, 2021 WIN
Week 5, 2020 WIN
Week 9, 2019 WIN
Week 1, 2019 WIN
Week 17, 2018 WIN
Week 2, 2018 WIN
Week 14, 2017 WIN
Week 1, 2017 WIN pic.twitter.com/CuYrTVWmWS
- With the Giants decimated by injuries at wide receiver, Darius Slayton is the last real weapon still available. While that has led to more production of him of late, it could also lead to shadow coverage from Trevon Diggs. Diggs held Justin Jefferson to just 33 receiving yards last season.
- Tony Pollard still plays over half the snaps (54%) and ran for 80 yards last week upon the return of Ezekiel Elliott. He has a solid rushing projection again this week and should be able to keep it close with Saquon Barkley. Barkley has averaged just 60.7 rushing yards per game in his career against the Cowboys and has run for 50 yards or less in four of seven career starts.
2: Bad Foot
- Justin Jefferson is dealing with a “mild” turf toe injury. While he claims it is “nothing major,” turf toe saps explosiveness and is the sort of nuisance injury which diminishes the effectiveness of anyone trying to play through it.
- The matchup is difficult for Jefferson. The Patriots are allowing just 135.0 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers, fifth-least in the NFL. In the last two weeks, New England has held Garrett Wilson (12 yards) and Michael Pittman Jr (22 yards) well below their season averages.
- Harris looked explosive last week, rushing for 65 yards on eight carries against an elite Jets defense.
- Harris has rushed for at least 37 yards in six of eight games this season.
1: Low bar
- This is a strong correlation play based upon a belief that this game is higher scoring than expected. It helps that the bar is extremely low with a pair of relatively low fantasy props.
- This is an elite matchup for Mac Jones. The Vikings give up the second-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks (284.4 per game).
- Minnesota has given up 30-plus points in back-to-back games, with Dak Prescott (20.6) and Josh Allen (21.6) both topping 20 fantasy points.
- Jones looked better out of the bye last week, completing a season-high 85.2% of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt.
Mac Jones since returning from injury: (games started and finished)— Jones Enjoyer. | #Sabres #ForeverNE (@BuffaloSabres06) November 23, 2022
587 passing yards
And the Patriots have outscored their opponents 58-23 since. pic.twitter.com/uRnXXYZ1lk
- Cousins has at least 16.5 fantasy points in 27 of 42 games (64.3%) since 2020.