Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
Josh Jacobs MORE than 90.5 rushing yards
Cam Akers MORE than 49.5 rushing yards
- I did not see this Josh Jacobs season coming. It started as a slow boil, with less than 70 rushing yards each of the first three games. He had a huge Week 4 performance and has not looked back.
- Since Week 4, Jacobs has averaged 123.4 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for 100-plus in three straight and six of nine.
- The three game heater Jacobs has been on has helped launch the Raiders back into playoff contention. He’s averaged 27.7 carries for 160.7 yards per game over the three-game winning streak.
"@iAM_JoshJacobs is having the greatest season we've ever seen from a @Raiders running back. Facts."
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) December 8, 2022
@Pschrags on the incredible season in Las Vegas. pic.twitter.com/yPeFQU31gF
- The Rams gamble to go all in with a “win now” approach paid off with a Super Bowl but we are into the part of the timeline after the initial “now” and things look bleak. Los Angeles is a 6.5-point home underdog and will be without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. The game script looks ripe for another big Jacobs performance.
- The injury losses on offense are devastating for the Rams but have brought Akers back to relevance at some level. He has averaged 52.7 rushing yards on 13 carries per game over the last three with a pair of 60-plus yard games. He played a season-high 72% of the snaps last week and helped the Rams stay competitive against the Seahawks.
4: Buckeye State Battle
Tee Higgins MORE than 15.5 fantasy points
Nick Chubb MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
- In the eight games this season, Tee Higgins has played more than 70% of the snaps. He averaged 18.0 fantasy points per game and scored 19-plus fantasy points in four of eight.
- Higgins has put up big numbers over the last three (19 catches for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns), but his impact has been even bigger than the numbers indicate. He made what were essentially game-clinching tough third-down catches in each of the last two weeks. The trust and confidence that Joe Burrow and the Bengals staff has in Higgins is at an all-time high.
The game-sealer for the @bengals was a pretty unique coverage by KC#whodey has plenty to make you pay.
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 6, 2022
Touchscreen Tuesday with @realrclark25 on #nfllive
I learnt something 🤠pic.twitter.com/rvAOaQ389a
- Nick Chubb (24% of the snaps) and key starters for both sides barely played in the meaningless Week 18 matchup last season. In the other three most recent matchups between these two rivals, Chubb has rushed for 362 yards and 6 touchdowns.
3: Solid WRs, low bars
DeVonta Smith MORE than 12.5 fantasy points
Darius Slayton MORE than 10.5 fantasy points
- Both of these numbers seem a touch too low for guys who have been featured consistently in recent weeks, and by landing on the same side of both, we get some small positive correlation.
- Slayton has a 33% market share of targets on first down over the last two months. He has seen at least 21% of the team’s targets and air yards in each of his last five games. Over that stretch, he has averaged a 27% target share.
- Slayton has scored 13-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games and notched at least 58 receiving yards in five straight.
Darius Slayton isn't being talked about enough as we head toward the fantasy playoffs
— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) December 6, 2022
Last 4 games:
- 14 FPPG
- 83 Rec YPG
- 7 Tgt per game
- 25% tgt share
He's one of those players I'm grateful to have on my roster as the playoffs approach. Has the volume & big play ability✅
- Smith has topped 12.5 fantasy points in three of four games and put up 19.0 points in his last matchup against the Giants.
- Over his last four games, Smith has had at least 32% of team targets three times and 45% or more of the team’s air yards twice.
- From an eye test perspective, Smith looks as healthy and confident as he has all season.
Eagles all22 thread vs Titans. DeVonta Smith is playing so so well at the moment. Love this design with the mesh + an out when the CB expects a deep dig which you normally see behind mesh. The Eagles passing game was fantastic all day. pic.twitter.com/Pa8cvR3KZW
— Jonny Page (@JonnyPage9) December 6, 2022
2: Solid QBs, low bars
Kenny Pickett MORE than 199.5 passing yards
Tyler Huntley MORE than 189.5 passing yards
- This is a correlation play based upon a belief that (1) Tyler Huntley will be fine against a mediocre pass defense and pull off the minor upset in Pittsburgh and (2) that Kenny Pickett’s prop is too low if you think Baltimore wins (and you are not afraid of small sample sizes).
- In his four losses as a starter, Pickett has thrown for 327, 257, 191, and 265 for an average of 260.0 yards per game.
- Baltimore is 8-4. Pickett’s four losses as a starter were to 11-win Philadelphia, 9-win Buffalo, and 8-win teams Cincinnati and Miami. In those games against top opponents, Pickett attempted 44.0 passes per game. He averages 18 fewer passing attempts per game against lower-tier teams.
- Pickett has a 106.3 passer rating and has completed 72% of his passes against the blitz this season.
Kenny Pickett Preparing For Heavy Ravens’ Blitz https://t.co/tcptE3Dl9J #Steelers pic.twitter.com/adb7ZXhAtZ
— Steelers Depot 7⃣🎄🎅 (@Steelersdepot) December 7, 2022
- Huntley came in cold off the bench last week and in approximately three quarters, threw for 187 yards and completed 84.4% of his passes against a great Denver pass defense (second-fewest passing yards allowed).
- He will have a much easier task ahead of him against a Steelers defense that has given up the fourth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
1: Henry in Division
Christian Kirk MORE than 65.5 receiving yards
Derrick Henry MORE than 89.5 rushing yards
- Henry has been held under 89.5 rushing yards in four straight games but could get back on track against a divisional opponent.
- Henry has rushed for 100-plus yards in 10 of his last 11 divisional games.
- In three divisional games this season, Henry has run for 114, 128, and 219 yards.
- In his last four games against the Jaguars, Henry has averaged 24.8 carries for 147 yards. He ran for 130-plus in three of the four games.
- Over his last six games, Christian Kirk is averaging 6.2 catches for 77.8 yards per game with three touchdowns. He has had at least 76 receiving yards in four of six.
- The Titans have allowed over 65.5 receiving yards to six different receivers over the past four weeks.
- The Titans have allowed the second-most receiving yards (2,308) to opposing wide receivers on the season.