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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: AFC South Championship
Trevor Lawrence MORE than 19.5 fantasy points
Derrick Henry MORE than 19.5 fantasy points
- Saturday night’s Titans-Jaguars game will have a playoff atmosphere and stakes, with the winner earning the AFC South title. Expect the biggest offensive stars on each team to shine as the focal points of the offense in spots where each has the advantage.
- Derrick Henry continues to smash against AFC South competition. He has 100-plus rushing yards in 12 of his last 13 games against divisional opponents.
- Henry has been dominant against the Jaguars. He has scored 13 rushing touchdowns in his last seven games against Jacksonville (1.8 per game). He had 24.5 fantasy points last month despite the Titans losing by two scores.
- Henry is going to get all the touches he can handle after getting the benefit of a week off due to Week 17 being meaningless for the Titans.
- Henry has had multiple receptions in seven straight games and has a healthy receiving projection in this game in addition to projecting for almost 100 yards as a runner.
- Trevor Lawrence has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks in the second half of the season, leading the Jaguars to a 6-2 record, completing 70.6% of his passes and throwing 14 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions.
- Lawrence was absolutely dominant in his Week 14 matchup, throwing for 368 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also had a rushing touchdown on his way to 33.4 fantasy points.
- The Titans give up 20.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, fourth-most in the league.
4: Common Sense Finale
Tom Brady LESS than 230.5 passing yards
Desmond Ridder LESS than 175.5 passing yards
- This is a correlation play based upon a belief that we see run-heavy game plans from two teams with nothing to play for.
- We have to start with the fact that this game means nothing for Tampa Bay. The Either six or seven days after this game is played, the Buccaneers will host either Philadelphia or Dallas in the first round of the playoffs.
- Tom Brady still wants to play and he often played in meaningless games late in the year while with the Patriots. While we should expect Brady to start, it defies common sense to throw a 45-year old quarterback out there for a full game with a pass-heavy approach when the ferocious pass rush of the Cowboys or Eagles is on deck.
- The Buccaneers are already talking about getting all three of their quarterbacks into this game.
- Desmond Ridder has been solid in three starts, averaging 161.3 passing yards per game. He has yet to throw a touchdown. His passing-game weapons are amongst the worst in the league and the Falcons throw the ball the second-fewest times in the league (385 attempts in 16 games).
3: Stepping Stone to 2023
David Njoku MORE than 39.5 receiving yards
George Pickens MORE than 35.5 receiving yards
- Expect the motivation levels to be very high in this matchup despite Cleveland not having anything to play for. The Steelers need to win and get some help to make the playoffs. Expect Pittsburgh to also be incredibly motivated to keep the long streak of non-losing seasons alive. For the Browns, this game is all about gathering momentum for next season.
- In terms of momentum, the Browns need Deshaun Watson to build off of what he showed in the second half of Week 17. The “rust” excuse only remains valid for so long. He needs to end on a high note or it is going to be a very long offseason of questions about his contract and the trade that brought him to Cleveland.
- David Njoku is a key player who Watson needs to show a better rapport with. The duo got off to a strong start with Njoku pointing 7-59-1 in their first game together. However, in the three since, Njoku has just 63 yards on 14 targets (4.5 yards per target). Expect the Browns to make a special effort to get this connection fixed in Week 18 with Njoku one of the few Browns pass catchers actually signed long term.
- George Pickens has averaged 51.1 receiving yards per game since Week 4.
George Pickens this season:— Bradley Locker (@Bradley_Locker) January 4, 2023
1st in contested catch rate (min. 70 targets)
4th in catch rate over expected (CROE)
T-4th in EPA/target
19th in receiving EPA
The #Steelers rookie has simply been dominant when thrown the ball. pic.twitter.com/yB4h5xgtJT
- Pickens has topped 35.5 receiving yards in 9 of 14 games.
2: RBs with Momentum
Ken Walker MORE than 70.5 rushing yards
Cam Akers MORE than 65.5 rushing yards
This is the only play of the week where we are not leveraging some positive correlations but this play is worth the gamble anyway given how well both young running backs have been playing and their matchups.
Walker had 240 rushing yards on 49 carries over the last two weeks with 107 yards against the Chiefs in Week 16 and 133 rushing yard against the Jets last week. The Rams have given up more rushing yards this season than either of those defenses Walker has recently dominated.
Beautiful string of lateral moves from Kenneth Walker as he hunts the edge.— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) January 5, 2023
The best pure runner of the last two draft classes. Combines north-south power with the vision & lateral skill to get to the lane. pic.twitter.com/t2Ym4Tmcwb
Walker got injured early in the Seahawks previous matchup against the Rams but averaged 12.0 yards per carry before going down.
Over his last two games, Cam Akers has 241 rushing yards on 42 attempts. He ran for 118 against the Broncos in Week 16 and 123 last week against the Chargers.
The Seahawks have given up 1,848 rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, sixth-most in the NFL.
1: Betting on talent in big spot
DAndre Swift MORE than 13.5 fantasy points
Christian Watson MORE than 12.5 fantasy points
- Green Bay can complete an improbably late-season playoff push with a win in this game. Detroit needs a Seattle loss earlier in the day for the game to have meaning but should be motivated to beat their rival regardless.
- We are going with a positive correlation play between a pair of talented and extremely efficient players who have made the most of their opportunities this season. If this game is high scoring, expect both to easily top these totals.
- DAndre Swift is averaging 1.29 fantasy points per touch this season. Amongst the Top 30 fantasy running backs, that is second behind only Jerick McKinnon and slightly ahead of Austin Ekeler (1.24).
- Based upon his per-touch efficiency, we do not need 20 touches for Swift to score 13.5 fantasy points. He is likely to be right there even with just 10-to-12 touches, which is a reasonable projection. In a similar spot Week 18 last season, Swift had 14.6 fantasy points against the Packers on just 11 touches.
- Green Bay gives up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
- Swift looked like a major difference-maker last week and should demand more touches in what could be the biggest game of his career to date.
- Christian Watson has scored 3.6 fantasy points per touch (carries plus receptions) this season, which ranks second amongst the Top 50 wide receivers behind only Gabe Davis and slightly ahead of Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown.
- Watson has been a big-play machine with nine touchdowns on just 41 touches and an average of 14.1 yards per catch.
- With another week to get healthy, expect Watson to be more heavily involved in Week 18. Prior to injuring his hip just before halftime of Week 16, Watson had eight targets in less than a half of play and was the clear go-to option for Aaron Rodgers.
- The Lions have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.