DFS First Look: Week 1

DFS First Look is back for another season. Every Wednesday I take a first pass at the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates, starting with a look at the lines and then working through the players I like at each position. Two things are different this year. I am doing weekly projections for Footballguys this season, and every number in this article comes from those projections rather than the site consensus, because I can speak for my own assumptions in a way I can't for everyone else's, and those assumptions are where the potential edge lies. Plus, my weekly projections are powered by a simulation of every game on the slate, run ten thousand times. You will see the average production for each player in those sims elsewhere on the site. However, this method also tells me how often each player lands in the best possible lineup under the salary cap and provides a wealth of other information that is very useful for building winning DFS lineups. Thus, you will see how often each player shows up in the optimal lineup across the sims in each table below. For Guaranteed Prize Pool tournaments ("GPPs"), comparing these optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (assembled by Devin Knotts) is the key to zeroing in on which players are overvalued or undervalued for the week.

The article is written to work as a skimmable guide for readers who want my early lean on the top plays and as a deeper look for readers who put real thought into building lineups throughout the week and want a jump start on the competition.

Slate Overview

Later in the season, the slate overview will have in-depth information about the positional matchups for each offense. In the first few weeks, we would just be guessing. However, one useful piece of information we do have is the ability to compare each team's implied team total this week to their implied team total over the course of the full season. This is a great way to infer how good the offensive matchup is this week.

The Chargers are a good offense in a great matchup. Not only do they have the top implied total on the slate at 28.5, but that number is also 20 percent above their average implied team total for all games this season. Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston are each priced attractively and are worth strong consideration in both cash games and GPPs this week.

Detroit is the only other offense above 28. Cincinnati against Tampa Bay has the highest total on the board at 50.5. Buffalo at Houston is the game the simulation likes least, with the Bills' implied team total coming in 12 percent under their season average. Cleveland's 16.0 is the lowest number on the slate, which makes Jacksonville's defense a top target.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert is the quarterback of the slate at $6,100, with the highest projection on my board and a Chargers offense the market has priced well below what I project for it. I am also willing to go heavier than the field on Trevor Lawrence at $5,800. People may be underestimating how much Cleveland will miss Myles Garrett. Jacksonville's running game looks shakier than the Jaguars hoped, which should push them toward the pass, and Lawrence ran in four touchdowns over his final six games last season.

Running Backs