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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Playoff Lenny
CeeDee Lamb MORE than 77.5 receiving yards
Leonard Fournette MORE than 40.5 rushing yards
- Over the past four weeks, CeeDee Lamb has averaged 8.3 catches for 99.5 yards and scored three touchdowns.
- Lamb has had 100-plus receiving yards five times in the past 10 weeks.
- In recent weeks, Dak Prescott’s connection with Lamb has been one of the few things working consistently in the Dallas passing offense.
- The Buccaneers defense was not as stingy against the run this season as in years past but showed some signs down the stretch of the dominant run defense that carried them to the Super Bowl two years ago. Over the second half of the season, Tampa Bay held five different offenses under 75 rushing yards. Expect the Buccaneers to try to force the Cowboys to beat them through the air.
- In the Week 1 meeting between these two teams, the Buccaneers leaned heavily on Leonard Fournette in their win. He rushed for 127 yards on 21 carries.
- Fournette has played in eight playoff games and rushed for at least 50 yards in every single game.
- The Cowboys give up the 10th-most rushing yards to opposing running backs at 101.2 per game.
4: Playoff Debuts
Justin Herbert LESS than 285.5 passing yards
Trevor Lawrence LESS than 249.5 passing yards
- This is a correlation play based upon a belief that there is a good chance this game between two talented young quarterbacks making their playoff debuts is more of a run-heavy, low-scoring game than the public expects.
- Since Week 9, Herbert has thrown for more than 285.5 yards in just four of eleven games.
- Over his last three games, Trevor Lawrence has averaged just 197.7 passing yards per game. There were signs of nerves for Lawrence last week in a big game against the Titans, which was ultimately won by the Jaguars defense.
- Prior to a meaningless Week 18 game, the Chargers defense had given up just 11.0 points per game in their four game winning streak to lock up a playoff spot.
- The Chargers defense allows the seventh-fewest passing yards in the NFL while giving up the fifth-most rushing yards. This sets up as a more favorable matchup for Travis Etienne than for Lawrence.
3: Clutch Veterans
Tyler Lockett MORE than 63.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey MORE than 75.5 rushing yards
- The 49ers have been the best team in the NFL since trading for Christian McCaffrey and should lean heavily on his rushing ability with a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start.
- McCaffrey has rushed for 100-plus yards in three of his last four full games (he played less than half the snaps in the Week 18 blowout).
- One of those 100-yard games came in a Week 15 win over the Seahawks. In that matchup, McCaffrey had a season-high 26 carries for 108 yards.
- The Seahawks have faced the second-most rushing attempts from opposing running backs (419) this season, behind only the Texans. The formula for beating Seattle is to pound away on the ground.
- McCaffrey is the 49ers best offensive player and should see huge usage after San Francisco limited his touches at time down the stretch.
- Tyler Lockett has had at least 68 receiving yards in each of his last three games against the 49ers.
- In two games this season against San Francisco, Lockett averaged 8.0 catches for 87.5 yards.
- Lockett has had another elite season and is the type of experienced veteran a relatively young offense is likely to lean on in the playoffs.
#Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is the only receiver in the NFL to earn an 85+ ESPN Analytics score at both getting open and making the catch over the past two seasons.— Seahawk Nerd (@SeahawkNerd) January 10, 2023
The only other WRs to have an 85+ open score and even a 65+ catch score are Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs.
2: Shootout in Minnesota
Kirk Cousins MORE than 269.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones MORE than 235.5 passing yards
- This is a correlation play based upon the idea that the Vikings pass defense is extremely vulnerable and the Giants will have success moving the ball and scoring points, which will in turn cause Kirk Cousins and the Vikings pass offense to have to be aggressive to keep up.
"It's about time the perception of who DJ is catches up to the reality."— Art Stapleton (@art_stapleton) January 12, 2023
The losing. The mocking. The turnovers. The coaching carousel. The questions.
On Daniel Jones + the opportunity he earned to prove he belongs Sunday in Minnesota:https://t.co/BnZnuSi6V7 via @northjersey pic.twitter.com/KHmhWxta5K
- We saw Daniel Jones against this same Minnesota defense just three weeks ago. He threw for 334 yards in one of the best passing performances of his career.
- The Vikings have given up the second-most passing yards this season (279.8 per game).
- Kirk Cousins threw for 299 yards in the Christmas Even matchup against the Giants.
- Cousins has thrown for at least 299 yards five times since Week 10.
1: All Unders in Jacksonville
- Sometimes it is fun to slip in one small play on a correlated five-leg prop in the playoffs. Hitting on just one of these can make your week.
- This is a long shot but at 20-to- 1 odds, this is a value correlation play based upon the hunch that this matchup between the Jaguars and Chargers is a low-scoring affair. Not only does it feature two young quarterbacks making their postseason debuts, but both defenses have come on strong down the stretch.
- The Chargers defense is finally getting healthy and it is expected that Joey Bosa will finally play a full complement of snaps after being eased back in to action over the past two weeks.
Joey Bosa has looked like his usual self in limited snaps so far in two games. Explosive off the line, perfect setup of the offensive tackle, patented double swipe, and ends up with a hit on the QB. pic.twitter.com/ZgHO2cGBYt— Steven Haglund (@StevenIHaglund) January 10, 2023
- The Jaguars have a talented young defense that is starting to emerge as a group to be feared. The unit has caused 11 turnovers in their last six games and features a ton of speed and length at all levels of the defense.
.@Jaguars @JaguarsUK @JoshAllen41_ is playing the best football of his career as is most players on this defense. From the #NFL worst last year to hosting a playoff game. Power to the Jags #duval #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/0A35VOpkpe— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 9, 2023