Reading the Defense, Week 10

Under previous stewardship, Reading the Defense routinely updated its readers on the playing time of off-ball linebackers across the league. The three-down linebacker is, after all, the foundational piece of an IDP roster. Fantasy gamers likewise build their offenses around workhorse running backs.

Footballguy Jene Bramel wrote Reading the Defense throughout much of this century’s second decade. During that time, 11-personnel became the majority offensive set (2013), and nickel became the majority defensive personnel grouping (2015).

The use of dime personnel (six defensive backs rather than nickel's five) grew throughout the past decade. Deployment of the sixth defensive back usually comes at the expense of one of two regular linebackers. The narrative surrounding the increased use of defensive backs has been that defenses need the speed and coverage ability and, further, that soft run defense is of little to no consequence.

The trend toward dime defenses appeared to portend a shortage of full-time linebackers for fantasy football. Typical IDP leagues require three linebackers per team in weekly line-ups. In a twelve-team league, 36 linebackers would be active. If every NFL team fielded just one full-time linebacker, only 32 would be available to the typical league. Given the relatively linear relationship between snaps and tackles, fantasy teams would hotly contest full-time players in drafts and on waiver wires.

The changes in offensive personnel deployment leveled off in the past five seasons. Dime sub-packages, meanwhile, peaked in usage in 2019 and subsequently decreased, according to annual reporting by FootballOutsiders.com.

The league-wide defensive trend attracting attention has been using two deep safeties. Defenses with just one deep safety prevailed through the past decade, while offenses were increasing their deployment of 11-personnel.

NFL defensive coordinators have responded to 11-personnel first by increasing defensive back usage from four to five per set (nickel sub-packages) and second by deploying both safeties in the third level of the defense. In contrast, the strong safety and the slot defender typically play at the defense’s second level in single-high safety schemes. The real innovation in this evolution toward two-high shells is that defensive coordinators have abandoned the notion that they need seven defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is often credited with building out coverages first and allocating remaining resources to pass rush and run defense. Coordinators across the league are following the Fangio blueprint of slowing down opposing run games with six defenders in the box. A six-man box obviates the utility of nickel, rather than dime, sub-packages.

Talent. Situation. Opportunity.

Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often analogizes fantasy value to the seat on a three-legged stool wherein the legs of the stool are talent, situation, and opportunity. A hot topic of debate last summer was the opportunity available to linebackers on several NFL teams, including the Vikings, Chiefs, Packers, and Saints.

This season’s first edition of Reading the Defense reflected on linebacker deployment in each of these defenses. Jordan Hicks, Nick Bolton, Quay Walker, and Pete Werner are all capitalizing on opportunities that fantasy gamers feared were unavailable. Each linebacker is playing full-time or close to it.

Seattle’s Cody Barton and Washington’s Jamin Davis, meanwhile, were seen as solid draft picks in August largely because their teams had used two full-time linebackers each in 2021. Each has experienced a diminution in role since Week 1 of 2022. Both have struggled.

Barton is allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 114.7 and is often replaced by an extra defensive back for dime sub-packages, while nickel back Coby Bryant plays nearly full-time. Barton’s reduction in role has coincided with the Seattle defense’s increase in efficacy.