Photo: Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Indianapolis Colts are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos as 3.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 43. Given the lack of offensive production for both teams thus far, this game feels unlikely to go over. It doesn’t help that both the Colts and the Broncos are going without their star running backs in Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams. Both teams are bottom half in pass rate over expectation with both quarterbacks struggling on the rare occasions when they do pass. We will be expecting a low-scoring defensive battle, but so will everyone else. To be unique we will have to identify which side of the ball will find success through the air.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Javonte Williams – ACL – Season-ending IR
• Melvin Gordon – Neck – Limited
• Russell Wilson – Shoulder – Limited
• Tyrie Cleveland – Hamstring – Limited
• Jonathan Taylor – Ankle – DNP

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Courtland Sutton
2. Russell Wilson
3. Nyheim Hines
4. Melvin Gordon
5. Michael Pittman

COLTS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Matt Ryan $9,600 – Flex

Matt Ryan has struggled to find rapport with any receiving option outside of Michael Pittman, and even then, the production has been mediocre. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of the last two games, but they came at the hands of Jelani Woods and Mo Alie-Cox. It is difficult to put a finger on exactly who Ryan will produce with which makes him tough to stack in small field tournaments. In large field contests, it is a bit easier to embrace variance and stack Ryan with one of his lesser rostered options. He has hit the 300-yard-bonus twice in four weeks, both in comeback attempts like what he should be in Thursday night. There is better option at Captain, but Ryan should be a staple in the flex paired with one of his pass catchers.