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OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Buffalo Bills are heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins as 2-point favorites with a 48.5-point total. The Dolphins will be the popular team to build around using optimizers. This is because of their multiple viable punt options. Unfortunately, this build type rarely ever works. To combat this, it is worth considering a max-one rule on Punt plays. A Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and De'Von Achane lineup could hit, but it's unlikely. Allen is the most likely Captain, and he has many more options to stack with. He can also be played in multiple ways ranging from not stacking at all, to triple stacking. The Bills happen to be the favorites, but the spread doesn't matter much for this contest. The total is high, and this game could easily hit the over. This contest favors more balanced lineups while hoping to get ceiling performances from some ancillary plays.
INJURY ROUND-UP
- Raheem Mostert - Knee/Ankle - Questionable
- Jaylen Waddle - Ankle - Questionable
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
BILLS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen $11,000 - Captain or Flex
Allen will be the most popular Captain, for good reason. He's likely the only MVP candidate with a chance to stand in Lamar Jackson's way at this point. He is a lock for multiple touchdowns and will be active through the air and on the ground. The Dolphins' electric skill position options will be able to push the pace and keep Allen's arm active.
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