Sunday Showdown Week 16

Photo: Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The New England Patriots are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos as 7-point underdogs with a 35-point total. Russell Wilson finds himself in a great spot as a heavy favorite, but his price makes the slate interesting. Pairing Wilson with his top receiver Courtland Sutton eats up nearly half of the available salary. Even with injuries on the Patriot's side of the ball, there isn't a ton of viable value to make up the difference. This is one of the rare slates where a lineup excluding a Quarterback could be viable. Even with Zappe at just $8,800 he's not a priority either. He is more likely to turn the ball over multiple times than he is to score multiple times. The most likely optimal lineup will include a Wilson stack, but don't be afraid to explore some options without a Quarterback and give a boost to the defenses.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Rhamondre Stevenson - Ankle - Out

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Ankle - Out

Hunter Henry - Knee - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• Russell Wilson
• Courtland Sutton
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Javonte Williams
• Demario Douglas

PATRIOTS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Bailey Zappe $8,800 - Flex

Zappe attempted his most passes of the season last week with 31. He completed 23 for 180 yards in a game that set up well for an opposing Quarterback. Now he's set up to face an even better secondary in a worse game environment. DraftKings made it interesting by pricing Zappe so low, but he's still not a priority on a slate that should favor the Broncos.