Is It Time To Worry About Christian McCaffrey's Age?

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

In the realm of fantasy football, there are unforgettable moments that leave a lasting impression on fans and analysts. One such memory is Christian McCaffrey's incredible performance in 2019, where he averaged a staggering 29.45 PPR points. He followed it up with an impressive 30.13 points per game in 2020, solidifying his legacy as one of the all-time fantasy points compilers. These seasons placed him among the top six per-game fantasy seasons by running backs in NFL history, alongside greats like Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, and LaDainian Tomlinson.

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However, the football gods had a different plan for McCaffrey in 2021. He faced a challenging campaign filled with injuries and played on an anemic offense, testing his resilience. It was the only time between 2019 and 2022 that McCaffrey failed to average over 20 points per game. Yet, despite these setbacks, fantasy markets remained unwavering in their faith. McCaffrey had established himself as a premier back, and those who believed in him were rewarded with another spectacular performance in 2022. A blockbuster trade to the San Francisco 49ers reignited the fervor surrounding his dominance and reminded us of his game-breaking abilities.

However, it is important to recognize that McCaffrey has transitioned from a young and dominant record-setting running back to an oft-injured player on the wrong side of the age curve. Despite this, he continues to be drafted unanimously as the RB1 in all formats. This raises some important questions: Can a 27-year-old McCaffrey live up to the lofty expectations and price tag? Does he still possess an elite ceiling? And what risks are associated with his floor?

Christian McCaffrey's Historical Comps

When examining Christian McCaffrey's extraordinary performances in the past, it becomes apparent that his ceiling reaches unprecedented heights. To find comparable seasons, we have to delve deep into NFL history. Here are the top 10 per-game fantasy seasons by running backs of all time, including two by McCaffrey, although one was achieved over a limited number of games.

Apart from McCaffrey's two outstanding seasons and LaDainian Tomlinson's 2003 campaign, it's striking to see that all the other running backs on the list were 27 years old or older. However, it's important to consider that these seasons date back at least 16 years, and the NFL landscape has evolved significantly since then. The rise of committee backfields and the emphasis on younger, more affordable running backs due to changes in data and contract trends have reshaped how teams approach the position.

Re-Energized In A New Setting

In McCaffrey's case, his trade to the 49ers in the middle of last season injected new life into his fantasy value. While he was still a valuable asset in Carolina, the lack of offensive weapons allowed opposing defenses to focus on containing him. However, the move to San Francisco provided a revitalized situation with innovative play-calling and a talented supporting cast, enabling McCaffrey to reclaim his throne as the top fantasy football RB1.

Now, let's examine McCaffrey's performance splits with both teams, excluding Week 7, where he played only 29% of snaps:

Surprisingly, McCaffrey's volume didn't change significantly after joining San Francisco. When considering the value of targets compared to carries, one could argue that he actually had fewer opportunities in his new home. However, the improved ecosystem and supporting cast allowed him to be much more efficient with his touches, resulting in 11 touchdowns in just 10 games.