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Halfway through the NFL season and with the trade deadline behind us, we’re quickly approaching the home stretch, just about a month out from the fantasy playoffs. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers as we head into Week 10.
Week 10 Risers
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud’s 281.4 passing yards per game are third, behind only Joe Burrow and Jordan Love. His 5.7% touchdown rate and 0.16 EPA per pass attempt both rank sixth, and he's been white-hot to start the year. Stroud's lack of rushing is a bit frustrating. Despite his passing numbers, he's still just the QB10 per game. He'll need to maintain his volume and efficiency to keep this pace. But he can be relied on as a back-end QB1, with his ceiling evident in Week 9's performance.
RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Since Week 5, Irving has scored 18.7 fantasy points more than any other running back. He has blossomed into a full-blown workhorse, handling 120 touches over those five games. Of 59 running backs with 25-plus touches over that span, Irving's 3.9 yards after contact per attempt ranks sixth. He logged 15 runs of ten-plus yards, third behind only Braelon Allen and Jahmyr Gibbs. The workload and efficiency have converged to create an elite fantasy asset. Irving broke out in a major way at the end of his rookie season, and Year 2 was mostly lost to injury. But he's healthy and dominant in Year 3, and looks like a plug-and-play RB1 until he shows otherwise.
WR Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers
Although Golden's teammate, Christian Watson, is averaging 1.6 more points per game this year, there's reason to believe that Golden has the better second half of the season. He's leading the league with a ludicrous 1,285 air yards, showing the ability to garner not just targets, but high-value targets deep downfield. His 0.29 targets per route ranks ninth among all receivers, and his average target depth of 14.5 yards ranks 23rd, both in a sample of 111 wide receivers who have run 100-plus routes. Golden was a first-round pick last year and fell well short of expectations. But the Packers traded away Dontayvion Wicks this offseason and let Romeo Doubs walk in free agency. An early injury to Jayden Reed paved the way for Golden to become a full-time player. He's seized the opportunity and returned elite fantasy production. Continue relying on him as a WR1 in fantasy lineups.
Week 10 Fallers
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry, for all his strengths, has always relied a bit on game scripts because of his lack of pass-catching. He's averaged just 1.6 targets per game throughout his career and hasn't caught more than 20 receptions in a single season since joining the Ravens. Beyond game-script dependency, overall rushing efficiency without Lamar Jackson should take a slight ding. Jackson's rushing proficiency forced defenses to play on their toes and respect Henry and Jackson in the backfield, and Jacoby Brissett will not offer that. Henry can still be relied on as a weekly starter, but his floor and ceiling are a bit shakier in this new-look Ravens team, where they could lean on Justice Hill more in passing situations.
WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Few wide receivers have Nacua's ceiling, making it hard to drop him in most leagues. The Rams are 5-4. Aside from the Cardinals next week, the Packers, Chiefs, and 49ers in the weeks after are tough matchups, and the outcomes will likely dictate how aggressive the Rams are in Nacua's return. If they fall to 5-8 over the next four games, Nacua's season may be over. If they can squeak out a few wins while he's out, he could come back before the playoffs. In his absence, it's hard to imagine anyone stepping into his shoes. Nacua is such a unique player. Expect the Rams offense to focus on their running backs and tight ends until Nacua and Davante Adams return. Savvy managers with good records should target Nacua in trades, but he won’t come cheap.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Houston Texans
There was hope that Harrison would break out after reuniting with his college quarterback, C.J. Stroud. In the three games they've played together, Harrison has just six catches for 60 yards. In a game where Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns last week, Harrison recorded just 20 scoreless yards. If fantasy managers want to believe in the talent and hope for the best, don't let me steer you otherwise. But if you're not sure what to do, feel free to cut bait and find someone on the waiver wire with a clearer path to relevance.
Check out the most recent episode of The Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, where I'm joined by Bob Harris to discuss these risers, fallers, and more.
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