Week 11 First Look

Photo: Jim Dedmon, USA Today Sports

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In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 11 Main Slate, we start by taking a big-picture view of the slate as a first step in our preparation process. The goal here is to give you some information-packed visualizations to quickly set the table for the much more in-depth breakdowns and player recommendations that will come later in the week. In addition, we want to start to identify the teams and players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus as soon as possible and start digging deeper into some of the players who stand out as potential top options.

Our Week 11 First Look will start out by breaking down the lines and team totals. We are looking both at the best spots overall and which teams are projected to score more than they typically do. We are also going to identify the players that are popping out as top values in the early-week Footballguys consensus projections. Lastly, we will dig into some usage stats and how each player on the slate ranks in key metrics.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The above visualization shows each team’s implied team total and how much they are favored (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. The Dolphins are in the top right corner, which makes them the top overall team on the slate. We are going to have a tough decision to make if De'Von Achane is activated from Injured Reserve this week. If you have been riding the Texans offense the last few weeks, you have likely done extremely well. We need to view Houston as one of the best offenses in the league. Through that lens, the top wide receivers like Tank Dell and Noah Brown are still underpriced.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but in what are expected to be low-scoring games.
• The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. Look for more on the Cardinals and Rams in the section below, but at first glance, this looks like a fantastic week to target players like Marquise Brown, Trey McBride, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution.