Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

The beginning of the season creates an opportunity for massive value changes in players. During the nine-month offseason, the market’s value on players becomes cemented. Then by mid-October, after five weeks of games, there can be a real panic in the marketplace if a player is not playing well.

Dealing With Missed Expectations

There are a couple of rules of thumb to follow when a player is not living up to expectations.

First, what has this player done in the past?

Players with strong historical profiles are the type of durable profiles that bounce back from stretches of poor fantasy scoring. These players typically make good buy lows, and you must be very careful to discard them.

Common durable profiles include quarterbacks and wide receivers with multiple top-12 seasonal finishes on their resumes and tight ends with top-three seasonal finishes.

On the other hand, buying low on unproven first- or second-year players can be a real trap. Their odds of producing are lower than the market appreciates, and baked into their cost is a youth premium that makes buying low difficult.

Second, why is the expectation not being met?

Good places to buy low include players who are hurt or have low efficiencies. Likewise, quarterbacks that have changed teams or systems are good bets to rebound.

Be careful in making too many excuses for the failure to meet expectations. If you have to take more than a couple of sentences to explain why they are not meeting expectations, be careful betting on a rebound.