Dynasty, in Theory: How to Trade

Photo: Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports

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There's a lot of really strong dynasty analysis out there, especially when compared to five or ten years ago. But most of it is so dang practical-- Player X is undervalued, Player Y's workload is troubling, the market at this position is irrational, and take this specific action to win your league. Dynasty, in Theory is meant as a corrective, offering insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game that might not lead to an immediate benefit but which should help us become better players over time.

Am I Too Focused on Value?

I make no secret about the fact that I think value is everything in dynasty leagues. "Value" is a bit of a nebulous concept, but a close approximation would be: if 20 years from now, you decided to create a retroactive dynasty league starting in the 2023 season, and you had full access to Pro Football Reference and knew full well how the subsequent 20 seasons would play out, what would you decide each player was worth?

This is an entirely theoretical exercise with no practical applicability (a favorite here at Dynasty, in Theory), but fortunately for us, we have all sorts of real-world estimates of this-- trade value charts, dynasty startup ADP, and a bevy of rankings. Unfortunately for us, all of these estimates are wrong.

In fact, they're all wildly wrong; if you've ever looked back at old dynasty rankings, you've seen just how wrong they tend to be. In September 2020, for instance, the dynasty community had Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Michael Thomas as two of the six most valuable dynasty players, while Justin Jefferson ranked 70th behind Le'Veon Bell and Jaelen Reagor. This is not, suffice it to say, where they would have been selected in a perfect-hindsight redo even three years later, let alone twenty.

But all of these estimates of player value are correlated with the "actual, perfect hindsight" values we care about. The correlation is weak enough that estimated values will swing wildly from month to month; a team that looks like a paper juggernaut in September might be building for next year by October.

But even the least-accurate rankings are still positively correlated with "true value", which means that if you can maintain a high total roster value over a long timeline, success will undoubtedly follow. (Better rankings have fewer and smaller errors and correct them faster, which means it takes a relatively shorter timeline for success and the roster value to line up.)

That understanding animates my entire dynasty philosophy: build the most valuable roster I can and then let the chips fall where they may.

Theory is Fine, But What About Practice?

Probably the most common complaint I hear from dynasty managers is that there are many things they'd like to do, but they can't because they play in an "inactive league" and trades are extraordinarily difficult to complete.

The good news is that "just maximize value" is a great strategy for inactive leagues because each move you make can stand on its own. If you acquire players you think are undervalued (whether through the draft, off of waivers, or through infrequent trades), you'll be right sometimes and wrong others. But if your player values are solid, you'll be right more than you're wrong, and your roster value will go up over time.

By contrast, if you're a "buy low and sell high" kind of manager, you might acquire a player you aren't a fan of at the price because you think you can get more for him later. If that later deal doesn't emerge, then you're left holding a negative expected acquisition. Inactive leagues reward strategies that look over a longer timeline and "buy good players and trust that things will work out" is the ultimate long-timeline play.

This isn't to say that "maximize roster value" doesn't benefit from trades, too. The more transactions you make, the more chances you have to add value, and "two early picks and a bunch of dart throws (later rookie picks and waiver claims) a year" doesn't always cut it. And a lot of my advice (like "you don't necessarily need backups so much as you need valuable assets that can be converted to backups when required") presumes that trading will be feasible when necessary. (In leagues where market-value trades are rare or difficult, rostered depth becomes more important.)

So, how do I adapt my strategy to deal with an inactive league? I don't; I've never actually played in an inactive league. Oh, I've played in leagues that other managers complained were inactive, but even then, I've never had any trouble making deals when I needed to. Rebuilding, our topic over the last two weeks, is probably more reliant on an active trade market than any other task in dynasty, but my most thorough rebuild happened in a supposedly inactive league.

Between August 2020 and December 2021, I turned over 25 out of 27 roster spots. The league as a whole made 20 trades during that span, and I was involved in 11 of them (55%). 67% of all picks and players moved via trade happened in deals I was involved in. Stripping away the fliers and fill-ins (trading a 3rd for a backup running back, say), the league made 11 "significant" trades (where each side was valued at least on par with a future 1st round rookie pick at the time), and I was involved in 8 of them (73%).

It wasn't one or two active managers who helped me complete the turnaround; out of eleven possible trade partners, I completed a deal with eight (including "significant" trades with seven). In a 12-team league, there are 66 potential pairings for a trade (excluding three-team deals and other more complicated instruments). I "activated" 8 of my 11 potential pairings (73%), while the rest of the league "activated" just 5 out of 55 potential trade partnerships (9%). (I also had productive discussions with a ninth manager that were cut short when one of the involved players was injured.)

An outside observer might conclude that this was an inactive league... for everyone but me. But that's typical of my experience; I've always been able to deal with any manager in any of my leagues at any time. Because this has been such a useful skill, I want to discuss how I manage it. So here's a primer on how I trade-- not in the sense of "who I target" or "what I give up", but in a purely mechanical sense. How do I get other managers to click "accept" on a proposed deal on our league platform?

I also want to preface this with an acknowledgment that this is what works for me, but much of this might not work for you (for reasons I'll get into in a bit). Hopefully, even if some of it isn't applicable, you'll still find something you can take away to help you get to "accept".

Trick #1: I Don't Play In a Ton of Leagues

Trading is like most things in that you get out what you put in. Being an exceptional trader often requires more time and effort. I currently play in two dynasty leagues, so it's relatively easy for me to block out the time to do the work when it's needed. If you play in 20 leagues, applying these principles to all of them would quickly turn into a full-time job. (Though you could always pick and choose which leagues to focus on at any given time.)

Trick #2: I Play With People I Know

One of my leagues is contested among fellow Footballguys writers and any vacancies that arise are filled from within. The other is filled with strangers from the internet. At least, they were strangers when we first started playing fantasy football together... back in 2002. I've still never met most of them in person, but twenty years together has a way of building relationships. Any vacancies in that league are awarded to friends and family via lottery.

This is probably the least practical tip; if you are in leagues with people you don't know, there's not a whole lot you can do about it (other than keeping the league together for 20 years, I suppose). But knowing the people I'm dealing with is vital for the next trick, which is both the hardest and the most important.

Trick #3: I Talk to Them

Using my words.

The "cold offer" / "reject and counter" game has become something of a standard for negotiations in dynasty leagues, such that I see people constantly complaining about leaguemates rejecting without countering as if it's some sort of faux pas. (It's not. You are never "owed" a counter, and dynasty managers are entitled to reject out-of-hand for any reason or even no reason at all.)