Others in this series:
Isiah Pacheco | Brock Purdy | Justyn Ross
What if I told you there was a 26-year-old wide receiver who has finished top 35 just once, a WR22 finish two years ago, and people are in on him? You already know this is an article about Marquise Brown, so the suspense is over. That said, the point holds.
There is a sound argument for Brown. Brown was an elite producer from Week 12 in 2020 until Week 6 in 2022. Over that 28-game span, Brown's 17-game production averaged 152 targets, 97 receptions, 1,112 yards, and nine touchdowns. Those 15.44 PPR points per game would qualify him for WR12 in 2022.
The other 30 games of his career were decidedly average—a 17-game pace of 98 targets, 58 receptions, 702 yards, and five touchdowns. 9.2 points per game is Mack Hollins's level production. No disrespect to Hollins; every NFL team can use a shoeless receiver who eats with his hands. But no fantasy team needs 9.2 PPR points.
The argument for reverting to that production after returning from injury in 2022 was a concurrent injury to Kyler Murray that caused the Cardinals to rely on quarterback Colt McCoy.
The Cardinals' current projected starting quarterback according to Footballguys' August Updates? Colt McCoy.
The Cardinals' offense is a mystery entering 2023, as is the general direction of the franchise. A full-blown rebuild would be possible with a new general manager in Monti Ossenfort and a new head coach in Jonathan Gannon. Kyler Murray's future with the franchise is another question. Brown's willingness to continue with the franchise should they move on from his friend and onfield connection rounds out the concerns.
Uncertainty awaits.
Why Sell?
Capitalizing on windows is vital in dynasty. Brown's career is a case study in windows. Brown's profile on Keeptradecut.com is a roller coaster. He originally peaked in early 2020, reaching a value of WR24.
Disappointment followed.
His 58 reception, 769-yard season saw his value crater. The Ravens added Rashod Bateman in the first round of the 2021 draft, and an offseason of narratives saw Brown crater down to WR60. He responded with the best season of his career. The result was jumping up to WR17 at the end of 2021.
Brown's value is unlikely ever to reach that high again.
His value has leveled out at WR37. He is close to his redraft ADP of WR34. And there lies the red flag. Brown is firmly in his production prime. Our Adam Harstad broke down how wide receivers age; with Brown hitting his age 26 season, the expectation is four quality seasons left. In a dynasty, when a player loses youth on his side and does not carry the expectation of an elite production season, it is a slippery slope toward lost value. One that Brown has already ridden.
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