The Dynasty Trading Post: Will Levis Debut

Photo: Mark Hoffman, USA Today Sports

Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.

This week, we will analyze Will Levis and Christian Watson as dynasty assets in the trade market.

*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*

QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Theme of the Week: Level Profile Analysis

Levis was already going to be one of the interesting watch players in Week 8. His four-touchdown explosion with long touchdowns has his market value surging to the mid-teens of the quarterback position in dynasty, which is mired by uncertainty beyond 10-12 options at present. One of the key aspects of Levis' performance was the way the touchdowns were scored. DeAndre Hopkins toasted a defensive back with a double move and created 5-10 yards of separation on one. Hopkins broke multiple tackles for another chunk score. On a third Hopkins touchdown, there was plenty of contact at the top of the route, and Hopkins could have easily been called for pass interference. The lone impressive throw by Levis was a long score to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, a bucket throw to the corner of the end zone.

In terms of expected touchdowns and interception data, Levis was credited with 0.94 touchdowns and 0.66 interceptions. What would the market be like for Levis this week if he had one touchdown and one interception in a loss to Atlanta? Certainly not QB15-18. With uncertainty across dynasty teams with quarterback injuries and poor play, Levis offers extreme flexibility to move towards better profile bets. Even if bullish on Levis, exploring the market as a sell this week is a must item for dynasty GMs.

Here are a few key Levis trades this week with him as a sell exploration:

• Levis, Roschon Johnson for Anthony Richardson
• Levis, Anthony Richardson, 2025 1st for Patrick Mahomes II
• Levis, Puka Nacua, 2024 2nd for Justin Jefferson
• Levis for Bryce Young, 2024 3rd

The theme from the quartet of recent trades is consolidating and upgrading profiles from Will Levis to something better, and many of those are graphically so. Targeting Mahomes off a rare down game is a constant to-do list item. The same applies to Justin Jefferson, and during an injury absence is the best time for any discount or availability of Jefferson.

Levis for Bryce Young is such a landslide deal, considering draft pedigree and base rates. 1.01-drafted quarterbacks typically see a big uptick in Year 2 or Year 3 and commonly hit for a top-six season at some point, even if short-lived. Levis as a Round 2 pick, despite the optimistic initial start, is still a Round 2 selection and an uphill battle to boost his odds enough to rival Young in the macro view.