Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 8: Los Angeles Rams

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Welcome back for year 29 of the Eyes of the Guru column. Last summer, I started a new tradition with the EOTG, posting team-by-team rather than a division at a time. The goal here is to give our customers a more steady diet of information in smaller doses.

These teams have been covered so far:

Arizona | Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | LA Rams | San Francisco | Seattle

There is another step in the evolution of the column this year as well. I have talked about the need for positional realignment among edge defenders and interior defensive linemen for several years now, and the True Position format has finally arrived. Not every league host site has come to see the light, but many have. The rest are eventually sure to follow.

Going forward, I will be treating and labeling all edge defenders as defensive ends. This will include 4-3 defensive ends, 3-4 outside linebackers, and anyone else in the new hybrid schemes of today's NFL that makes a living by chasing quarterbacks off the edge. Likewise, the defensive tackle position will include all interior defensive linemen in 4-3 schemes and all down linemen in 3-4 alignments. As a result of this approach, we have eliminated the constant arguments and flip-flopping of positions among these players.

For reference, when mentioning where players finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system. This is the basic stuff:

• Tackles = 1.5
• Assists = .75
• Sacks = 4
• Forced fumbles = 3
• Fumble recoveries = 3
• Interceptions = 4
• Passes defended = 1.5
• Touchdowns = 6

When tackle numbers are mentioned, solo stops and assists are generally not lumped together. Unless there is a reference one way or the other, tackles refer to solo stops. When talking about the total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries, and fumbles forced since all of these are scored very similarly in most leagues. Keep in mind that based on scoring systems, rankings will vary (sometimes greatly) from league to league.

From time to time, the rookie corner rule will be referenced. For those who are new to IDP or the EOTG, the rookie corner rule is the basic fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie on the corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses. Thus, these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Often these players are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon), and their numbers will begin to drop steadily after their rookie seasons.

The Rams sold out to win the Super Bowl after the 2021 season, expending a lot of roster-building capital (money and picks) to acquire proven veteran players and a few superstars. The gamble worked, but now it’s time to pay the piper. Los Angeles didn’t have a pick in the first two rounds in 2022 and was without a first again this year. They kept most of the band together last season but the magic was gone. This offseason found the team in salary cap purgatory, forcing a purge. Among those gone are Bobby Wagner, who led the team in tackles, Jalen Ramsey, who led them in turnovers, and Leonard Floyd, who led in sacks. With no cap room, one pick in the first two rounds over the last two drafts, and a lot of holes to fill, the organization is likely looking at double-digit losses in 2023. While that makes a long season for fans, it means a lot of opportunity for some young, unheralded players and plenty of potential value for IDP managers. After all, someone is going to make tackles.

Defensive Linemen

The Rams still have Aaron Donald, and they have… Well, at least they still have Aaron Donald. He turned 32 in May and has entered the fourth quarter of a stellar career, but Donald is far from done. At a glance, last year’s totals of 26-23-5 are not what we normally get from the future Hall of Famer. At least not until we average in the six games he missed at the end of the season. With that considered, his totals project closer to 42-34-8. Even at that Donald’s sack numbers were down but the combined tackles would be the second-highest of his career. The only concern I have with him is the lack of a supporting cast. Even the great Aaron Donald can be slowed down significantly if there is no one else to threaten the offense. He is still a high-end DT1, but don’t count on double-digit sacks or a top-three finish this time around.

Beyond Donald, even the Rams have no idea what they have along the defensive line. Bobby Brown III projects as the starting nose tackle, but the 2021 fourth-round pick has 183 snaps worth of experience over his first two seasons. Virtually all of his nine combined tackles as a pro came after he returned from an ankle injury last year. Brown only got on the field for 19 snaps as a rookie but the organization hopes he can get past the injuries and step up in year three. The closest thing Brown has to competition for the nose tackle job is undrafted rookie Taron Vincent, who is, coincidentally, the only other defender on the current roster to check in at 300 pounds.

The Rams have been short on early picks, but they held a wad of later slots this year, including eleven on the third day. They used a third on tackle Kobie Turner and the last of those third-day picks on Mr. Irrelevent, Desjuan Johnson. Turner has a short resume and is lacking in measurable traits, but the tape says he is much better than the measurables suggest, particularly as a run defender. The rookie will enter training camp with a good shot at landing the starting job for week one. His toughness and determination make Turner a player worth keeping an eye on for those in tackle-required leagues.

Johnson is more of a developmental guy that could eventually challenge for significant playing time. In the short term, however, veterans Marquise Copeland and Larrell Murchison will also be in the mix for playing time. Both are serviceable veteran players with little chance of significant IDP value.

When looking at the Rams roster, it’s hard to see where the pass rush help for Donald will come from. Los Angeles put up a respectable 38 sacks last season, 21 of them recorded by players no longer with the team. The organization is counting on Michael Hoecht to pick up where he left off last year and fill much of that void.

The team’s edge group was so shorthanded down the stretch in 2022 that Hoecht was shifted from tackle to the outside for the final seven games. At times, he looked really good on the field. At other times, not so much. Despite checking in at 310 pounds, Hoecht did a solid job as a stand-up edge defender. He was excellent versus the run and got good pressure on the passer regularly. When it came time to drop in coverage, as the edge guys in this scheme are sometimes asked to do, Hoecht struggled.

On the all-important (to us) stat sheet, Hoecht got it done, racking up 34 combined tackles and four and a half sacks over the final seven games. He trimmed down in the off-season and has worked hard to become more of a versatile asset on passing downs. Hoecht is set to open as a starter and is a player that could be surprisingly productive. He is also a player that relatively few managers are paying any attention to, which makes him an ideal late-round target for your bench.

It is rather rare for a third-round rookie to be anointed as a starting edge defender before the team even opens training camp, but that is how shallow the pool is in Los Angeles right now. Byron Young was the team’s second pick at 77 overall, yet he is being treated as a first-rounder out of necessity.

Young showed well over his two years as a starter for Tennessee, totaling 83 combined tackles and 12.5 sacks in 23 games. At six feet two inches and 250 pounds, he is a bit small for a three-down guy. Young will need more sand in his pants as a point-of-attack run defender and will need to polish his pass-rush game at the pro level, but he has the physical tools and the work ethic to be successful right out of the gate.

Other than a handful of young free agent camp bodies getting a chance to catch on the tail of the roster, the rest of the Rams’ depth chart on the outside consists of fifth-round pick Nick Hampton from Appalachian State and Ochaun Mathis, who was drafted in the sixth out of Nebraska. Both players come with upside and plenty of experience from their college careers. Hampton had 26.5 career sacks over his four years in the Sun Belt Conference, but that was against a much different level of competition.

• DT Aaron Donald – High floor DT1
• DT Bobby Brown III – No impact expected
• DT Marquise Copeland – Solid veteran presence with marginal IDP value at best
• DT Larrell Murchison - No impact
• DT Kobie Turner – Watch list rookie with big potential in the long term.
• DT Desjuan Johnson – Mr. Irrelivent in more ways than one
• Edge Michael Hoecht - Sleeper with DE2 upside
• Edge Byron Young – There will be plenty of opportunity if he can capitalize
• Edge Nick Hampton – Developmental rookie, could have a role in the nickel
• Edge Ochaun Mathis – Developmental rookie