Is This Real? Week 14

Determining what is real, sustainable production instead of unreliable production is critical for your fantasy team. Players with sustainable production should anchor your team and the type of players you seek to acquire in the trade market. Players with unsustainable production are the types of players that you should not depend on in your lineup and sell trades.

Mike Evans Continued Brilliance

Entering the 2023 season, there was a real question about whether Mike Evans could maintain fantasy production with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady at quarterback. Evans has thrived with Mayfield at quarterback, including tying his second-best season in yards per target (9.8). Evans has also improved over 2022, seeing an uptick in targets from 8.5 to 8.6 per game while increasing from 74.9 to 84.3 yards per game, his third-best season in yards per game.

Mike Evans is in his 10th season and is 10-for-10 in 1000 yards seasons, the most for a wide receiver to start a season in NFL history.

Is this sustainable?

Yes.

Evans’s career has been extremely durable, and the perceived downgrade of quarterback has not been a problem for his production. From a fantasy football perspective, Evans has been right on point as a 1000-yard receiver, averaging 8.6 targets per game, 5 receptions per game, 76.8 receiving yards per game, and 0.61 touchdowns per game, all in line with his career production.

What is interesting is that Evans has done this while Mayfield was performing at or below his career averages. For example, in yards per attempt, Mayfield (6.8) is below his career average (7.2). Mayfield’s touchdown rate (4.4%) is also slightly below his career average of 4.5%.

Evans’s production is also right in line with his historical averages. His 2.06 yards per route run is down from the past two seasons but right in line with his career average. Likewise, Evans’s target rate, 22.7%, is right in line with his career average of 22.6%.

Verdict: Evans is performing in line with his consistently predictable fantasy career. He is a consistent year-over-year top 24 wide receiver, performing exactly in line with his career averages, but is overlooked because people are looking for the shiny new flavor of the week.