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Thursday Night Football can be difficult to watch at times due to the quality of play, but this week the pain was twofold because of the injuries. Thursday resulted in two injuries with major fantasy football implications...and that was just the start of Week 11. Below is a more detailed explanation of the injuries from this past week.
Key:
(Position) Player | Injury | My Projection for Return to Play
QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals | Wrist Injury | Season-Ending
Joe Burrow is expected to have surgery on this wrist and will miss the rest of the regular season. Anytime there is an injury to the throwing arm, fantasy managers might be concerned about a player's long-term prognosis. Expect Burrow to be healthy and good to go in 2024. I have zero concerns about him moving forward.
TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens | Ankle Injury/Leg Fracture | Likely Season-Ending
Another injury with major fantasy football implications occurred Thursday night - Mark Andrews sustained an ankle injury. Post-game an MRI revealed that Andrews had a fibula fracture. Andrews will very likely need season-ending surgery, but the Ravens are leaving the door open as they have set up their star TE to meet with a specialist.
For fantasy football purposes, Andrews' season is likely over. Most protocols for a fibular fracture require ~6 weeks of non-weight bearing. Assuming Andrews has surgery this week (Week 12), that would mean Andrews would start putting weight on his ankle in Week 18. If you want to hold Andrews on your roster a few more days to see if a miracle surfaces, you can, but come your league's waiver wire period, you should move on.
Isiah Likely becomes an interesting fantasy option for TE-needy teams.
Tuesday Update: Head Coach John Harbaugh left the door open for Andrews to return this year but for fantasy purposes his season is very likely over. He is safe to drop.
RB Ken Walker III, Seattle Seahawks | Oblique Injury | Projecting Week 14 Return.
Ken Walker III only logged a few snaps before he strained his oblique and was unable to return. Post-game Pete Carroll called Walker's injury "legit", suggesting it was a serious strain.
Oblique/core injuries can be difficult to manage in-season and typically do not get better without rest. On average, skill position players miss ~2 weeks with this injury, with >75% of the sample missing at least 1 game. The two most recent examples of this injury are Jaylen Waddle - who dealt with a similar injury that limited him for the majority of the preseason - and Christian McCaffrey - who did not miss any time.
Seattle plays on Thursday, and Walker seems like a long-shot on a short week. Walker has dealt with core/hernia issues before in his career, which leads me to believe that he misses some time with this oblique strain.
Tuesday Update: Seattle is not going to place Ken Walker III on IR but it sounds like he could miss some time. He is currently listed as Doubtful for Week 12 and Week 13 is probably iffy as well. I currently have him projected for Week 14 return.
QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks | Elbow Injury | Projecting Week 12 Return
Geno Smith missed some time Sunday due to an elbow injury. Afterward, head coach Pete Carroll told reporters Smith was dealing with an elbow contusion. Typically, these injuries are not that limiting, and as a result, I believe there's a good chance Smith will play next week.
Tuesday Update: Geno Smith has "no structural damage" to his elbow. I would expect him to play in Week 12.
WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 12 Return
Cooper Kupp exited Sunday with an ankle injury and was unable to return. By video, Kupp appeared to sustain a low (inversion) ankle sprain. Regarding time missed, historically, it is a 50/50 split on whether or not WRs miss time. Luckily, the Rams avoid the Thanksgiving slate of games and play on Sunday, meaning Kupp has a full week to heal up. However, despite the lengthened timeline, it does not necessarily mean I would confidently start Kupp if he is active.
Ankle injuries typically are limited for NFL WRs. On average, there is ~20% decline in production post-injury. Combined with the fact that Kupp has been struggling this season, it significantly lowers his ceiling.
Tuesday Update: Head Sean McVay told reporters Monday has Kupp has a chance to play Sunday. This is what I thought in the original projection. Although Kupp is not a lock to play in Week 12, I lean towards him doing so, however remain steadfast in my opinion that his ceiling is capped.
RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers | Knee Injury | Projecting Week 16 Return
Aaron Jones appears to have sustained a serious knee injury Sunday and will require an MRI Monday to determine the full extent of his injury.
#Packers HC Matt LaFleur on Aaron Jones' knee injury:
— Jason B. Hirschhorn (@by_JBH) November 19, 2023
"I don't think it's long term. Certainly, it really looked bad. I was really concerned just seeing it live. I didn't see a replay or anything. ... But he's in good spirits in there. Hopefully, it's just a short-term deal."
It sounds like Jones avoided an ACL tear, meaning the next most likely diagnosis is a sprained MCL. Depending on the severity, an MCL sprain typically nets a 4-week absence.
Tuesday Update: Aaron Jones is not practicing Monday and seems like a long-shot to play in Week 12. The Packers have not released the specifics on Jones' injury just yet. He could still avoid the IR if he does not have an MCL sprain.
RB D'Onta Foreman, Chicago Bears | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 14 Return
D'Onta Foreman was battling an ankle injury heading into Week 11 and appears to have suffered a setback as he could not finish Sunday's game due to this ankle injury. Low ankle sprains typically result in time missed for NFL RBs (62% miss at least one game)
Khalil Herbert just returned from IR due to a high ankle sprain and was inefficient on the ground with under 2.5 yards per carry. Efficacy issues are not uncommon post-high ankle sprain. On average, RBs' fantasy points drop by 20% in their first game back, and compared to their pre-injury levels, their production declines by 12% for the remainder of the season.
If Foreman misses time and Herbert struggles, Roschon Johnson is a very interesting fantasy football add if he is still on your waive wire. He could be an RB who gives your team some juice for a playoff push.
Tuesday Update: By video it looks like Foreman sustained a high ankle sprain. I would expect him to miss the next 3-4 weeks similar to that of Khalil Herbet. Roschon Johnson should be a waiver target.
RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins | Knee Injury | Timeline TBD
De'Von Achane missed the past four weeks on IR with an MCL sprain. He was finally able to return Sunday, but only for a brief moment. Achane was forced out of the game with an injury to the same knee.
The Dolphins are downplaying the knee injury - and there is not a clear shot of the tackle that forced Achane to leave the game - but the mechanism did fit that of another MCL sprain or possible meniscus. Miami plays on a short week, and Achane will need to be ready on Friday if he wants to play in Week 12. Hopefully, more information surfaces Monday/Tuesday, but as of right now, I lean towards him missing.
Tuesday Update: De'Von Achane did reaggregate his pervious knee injury, but Head Coach Mike McDaniel did not offer much explanation beyond that. Friday is not looking likely for Achane.
