The Top 10 from Week 2

Photo: Joe Camporeale, USA Today Sports

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, which is available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability, and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 1'S CLIFF'S NOTES

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list, and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

• Week 1: The Season's Infancy
• Brandon Aiyuk's Game Has Taken the Next Step
• As Long As Christian McCaffrey Is Healthy, Brock Purdy Isn't Flopping
• Chef's Kiss the Cleveland Browns Defense and Jim Schwartz
• So Near, So Far: The Saints Are A Left Tackle Away from Great Offense:
• So Far, So Good: Romeo Doubs Fixing What Was Missing
• I Hope you Have Tyjae Spears in Dynasty Leagues
• I Saw the Football Son of Lawrence Taylor on Sunday Night in New York Dressed As A Cowboy
• If You're Breaking Ties: Mac Jones and Hunter Henry Have A Special Rapport
• Fresh Fish

Let's roll...

1. Week 1: The Season's Infancy

Drop that bum, Kadarius Toney!

Add Kyren Williams, he's gonna be a star!

Derrick Henry is washed up . . .

If you picked a player in the early half of the draft, you can't afford for him not to produce immediately...

Welcome to the infancy of the 2023 NFL season. And just like infants, nearly everything gets us equally excited and despondent because we have little perspective about the year ahead.

Fortunately, we have history, and even a cursory glance at last year's first few weeks tells us a radically different story than typical Week 1 reactions that have become an annual tradition of the fantasy football public.

Here are the top 12-15 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE for the 2022 season. To the right of each player is their weekly ranking for each of the first three weeks of the season and their overall ranking heading into Week 4. The rankings in italics are values lower than expected for a top-15 producer. The rankings in bold are below starter value in a majority of fantasy leagues.

A quick glance at the quarterback chart reveals that 30 percent of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in 2022 had at least 2 out of 3 games to begin the year that weren't even among the top 15 outputs at the position. Did you write off Trevor Lawrence after Week 1? Probably not. Many of you probably wrote off Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith because they were unproven, and the lowlights from the media lunchroom circuit may have influenced you to panic.

This was even more likely with how you regarded non-quarterback positions.

Josh Jacobs isn't as good as Zamir White, and the rookie's time is coming soon...

Derrick Henry is washed or showing signs...

Rhamondre Stevenson is too slow for the NFL, and the Patriots offense is a mess...

20 percent of last year's top 15 backs didn't finish among the top 36 runners in Week 1. 40 percent of them didn't finish inside the top 24 in Week 2. Listen, 40 percent of them had at least two weeks where they didn't deliver top 36 production. Feeling me, now?

If you're not feeling me, it's because you know that some of these low-ranking values are still delivering fantasy points that hit a minimum threshold of value for the position. For additional context during those first three weeks, Josh Jacobs averaged 10.7 Fpts/gm, Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 10.3, and Tony Pollard 11.5.

Their final averages for the year? Jacobs - 19.4, Stevenson - 14.8, and Pollard - 15.6.

That's a significant difference. So is the 8.2-point total Derrick Henry posted in Week 1, when he averaged 19.2 points for the entire year.

There's variance in fantasy football performance; it's important to understand it and learn the contexts that matter for how you manage your teams.

Wide receiver variance was even wilder last year.

I bet you didn't doubt Lamb, Adams, or Smith at this time last year despite the common refrain that "early picks must produce early." We allow our biases to reinforce the narratives we generate about players, even if the snaps and targets are enough to look past the poor performance.

Can you imagine people thinking, The uniform is different, but it's the same old Evan Engram after Engram's first three weeks as Jaguar? Or, It's probably time to give up on T.J. Hockenson becoming a thing in fantasy football.

How This Applies to Week 1 of This Year: If a player snaps and targets suitable for a reliable contributor to your active roster, but his production is low, remain patient. This is the case regardless of the issue, including technique lapses, communication issues with his key teammates, or an opposing defense exploiting a schematic advantage the player and/or his teammates couldn't figure out.

Now, if you want to drop Kadarius Toney, Justin Fields, Cam Akers, Najee Harris, or any other underperforming option because you dislike them, that's your business. If you want to manage your team well, remain patient for another week or two. Yes, the regular season has a limited data set but make sure you're actually accessing worthwhile information and applying it wisely.

Part of that data set is the film: How consistent are the lapses, communication issues, or scheme flaws? I'll try to give you solid answers that lead to wise and actionable decisions as the season unfolds, beginning now.

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2. Brandon Aiyuk's Game Has Taken the Next Step

Aiyuk began his career as an excellent runner after the catch who won on slants and vertical routes. Kyle Shannahan demands his receivers play multiple roles in his version of the West Coast Offense, and naturally, it took Aiyuk some time to acclimate. Of course, being in the coach's doghouse during the early portions of Aiyuk's career frightened fantasy GMs.

No more. Aiyuk showed signs of becoming the primary option for Brock Purdy down the stretch of 2022, and if the opener against Pittsburgh on Sunday is any indication, Aiyuk has assumed the helm of the top receiver for the 49ers. Although Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel nearly split 15 targets down the middle against the Steelers, accounting for over 50 percent of Purdy's attempts, Aiyuk's targets had more value when considering the down and distance situation, field position, and outcome.