ADP-Less Talents, Ultra-Deep Sleepers: The Gut Check No. 651

ADP-Less Talents Matter

ADP-Less players? In August? 

Listen. You're going to get an entire set of draft tiers from me (twice) in August. Why waste time overanalyzing players at the beginning and middle stages of drafts? 

You have commentary from me with every pick in this range -- and later -- available in my rankings. 

The draft may be where you get the most players, but the waiver wire is where you can get 1-2 players who make the biggest difference for your starting lineups. 

Jerick McKinnon was an ADP-Less RB in 2022 at Fantasy Football Calculator. He finished the year as fantasy RB20. Adding McKinnon as a free agent fortified fantasy rosters in multiple ways: 

• The addition likely gave teams an immediate starter to bolster their lineup.
• At worst, the addition fortified a team's flex options and provided excellent depth.
• The addition gave teams potential trade bait to shore up weaknesses elsewhere. 
• The addition eliminated a startable player's availability to the rest of the league. 

McKinnon isn't even the sexiest example. This was the case for Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams in 2023 and Jonnu Smith and Jauan Jennings in 2024. Are you feeling me, now? 

Average Draft Position (ADP) varies across the hobby. Not only with where players are valued but also how many players ADP reports track. Some track 180 players while others track up to 350. 

So, I'm going with deep ADP-Less cuts in this week's Gut Check because these 22 options don't even have an ADP inside the top 350 options. Still, they are players who could make a bigger impact in redraft leagues than you may realize, and they are absolutely deep cuts of value for expanded rosters in dynasty formats. 

Some of these ADP-Less players are unknown rookies and second-year options. Others are forgotten/written-off reserves. All of them are worth having on your August waiver-wire list that you transfer to the regular season. 

If the news on any of these ADP-Less players has signal-worthy information, you'll be in position for a preemptive addition before the game show hosts on the big-brand sites even learn how to pronounce these players' names. 

To answer one of my editors of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication, this is why the RSP includes 150-plus rookies every year:

• Player development isn't always linear (Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield). 
• Player-team fits aren't always ideal (Raheem Mostert).
• Draft capital is often a reflection of confirmation biases, providing opportunity more than talent (Brock Purdy). 

If we're going to get real, most analysts in this industry can't go this deep into some of these ADP-Less players' skill sets. I'd estimate that 85-95 percent of the fantasy writers in this hobby haven't performed a comprehensive study of at least 11 of the players mentioned below. 

This isn't meant to bash the industry. These are low-percentage plays. Most media outlets want clicks more than they want to exhaust all the possible ways you can gain an advantage in fantasy football. 

I'm fortunate to write for a site that wants you to know every angle. If I were elsewhere, they'd make me stick to the top 200 players on ADP, and they'd probably be more concerned about my haircut than what's going on under my scalp. 

The lowest-percentage plays that hit are often the ones that make the biggest difference in league outcomes. When you have someone on staff who has extensive knowledge of many of these lesser-knowns, it's wise to leverage it for your benefit. 

The ADP-Less 22: Re-Draft and Dynasty Options of Note

These are all players currently on an NFL roster. Many of them are getting recognition in training camp. Many are late-round picks, UDFAs, or signees from other professional leagues.

I've studied their college tape and have kept tabs on them since. They are sorted by position and listed in alphabetical order. 

ADP-Less Quarterbacks

Joe Milton III, Dallas Cowboys

The second-year quarterback's calling card is his size and massive arm strength. The Patriots originally acquired Milton as a "stab" at upside because of his physical skills.

The strategy in most of these cases is that if a low-cost acquisition with Milton's athletic ability shows any promise, they can either profit quickly from a trade or attempt to develop him into a viable contributor. NFL scouts know this strategy well, and it's why toolsy players earn UDFA opportunities. 

Milton is ADP-Less because most backup QBs aren't targeted in fantasy drafts. 

Still, the Patriots got some promising early returns from Milton last year. They opted for the quick sell to a Cowboys team that has been notorious for chasing big-name college options and/or top athletes who lack high-end football skills. 

The Cowboys hope that the Patriots are wrong about Milton, and they landed the next Daunte Culpepper. Because development isn't a linear progression, there's a chance the ADP-Less Milton has done enough work to see the light come on as a processor of information.

If that's the case, the Milton could emerge from an ADP-Less status and become a big-play fantasy QB if Dak Prescott gets hurt. Considering the weaponry in the Dallas passing game, Milton is worth having on your preemptive waiver lists if Tyron Smith and company are still healthy along the offensive line.

I'm not adding Milton in dynasty formats, but I bet he's a hot end-of-roster property -- especially among Cowboys and Patriots homers. 

Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers

Willis is another ADP-Less backup. He should have been valued in the NFL Draft closer to Milton and not as a second-day selection.

As my 9th QB in the 2022 class, I had a reserve grade for Willis as a rookie: a player with specific talents that could help him emerge as a contributor in an offense that limits the scope and demands of how he must execute.

Willis was an inexperienced processor of information. His decision-making immaturity was pervasive in his game, ranging from the touch he used to throw the ball to reading the leverage of the coverage on his receivers, and even in the choices he made as a scrambler behind the line of scrimmage. 

There are tremendous physical gifts within the ADP-Less Willis' game to unlock. I noted that Willis needed patience and structure from a team because he had more potential than reality as a prospect. 

Last year, we saw Willis' first taste of the starting lineup as an injury substitute for Jordan Love in Green Bay. He didn't deliver like an ADP-Less option.

The Packers did a lot more with RPOs and designed plays that limited Willis' processing demands than they did with Love. Still, Willis played within the framework of the game plan and finished the year 40-of-54 for 550 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 20 rushes for 138 yards and a score.

In the three games where he played 40 snaps, Willis averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game -- 15th among QBs. In the two games where he had at least 60 snaps, Willis averaged 20.5 points per game.

The ADP-Less Willis offers fantasy GMs a discount version of what they hope from Justin Fields but with a better offensive line, receiving corps, and a coach who knows how to use him. If Jordan Love gets hurt, add Willis even if you don't have a need for another QB, because you'll be able to exchange him for a resource that benefits your lineup. 

If you're in a large-roster, two-QB dynasty league and Willis is a free agent, you may want to fix that.