Gut Checks
This week's Gut Check is about a lot of things:
- Players and situations I like.
- Players and situations I dislike.
- Players and situations where I am ambivalent.
- Players and situations where my emotions are getting in the way.
- Players I have no reason for drafting, but I'm tempted.
- Players I have no reason to avoid, but I'm hiding from them.
- Players and situations where I'm generally confused.
- Fantasy situations where I ask myself if I am crazy or if everyone else is?
Get the keys to the dump truck and let's roll.
Ja'Marr Chase Hasn't Reached His Ceiling
Chase earned a career-high 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns last year -- the 14th-best single-season yardage output for an NFL wide receiver. It's nutty to have a gut feeling that Chase can do better, especially in a loaded offense, but I believe we'll see Chase earn a 2,000-yard, 20-TD season before 2029.
Calvin Johnson, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones, and Jerry Rice came closest. Chase is the best all-around receiver in the game. He's an elite ball winner, ball carrier, route runner, deep threat, and slot option. He also has one of the three best passers in football delivering him the ball.
Chase has the skills to dominate on this level. My gut feeling: If he reaches his ceiling, it will come at a cost to the Bengals. He'll need injuries for a shot at it this year.
Johnson, Kupp, Jones, Rice, Antonio Brown, and Justin Jefferson are the six receivers to earn at least 1,800 yards during a season. None of them had a teammate earn 800 yards or more when they delivered this production. If Chase threatens this illustrious single-season tier of production, don't count the rest of the Bengals receivers to get close to 800 yards.
This year, I have Chase at 120 receptions, 1,632 yards, and 17 scores -- slightly down from 2024, but good enough for the top spot on my board. I expect Joe Burrow to spread the ball around enough that Tee Higgins falls short of 1,000 yards.
If Higgins and one of Jermaine Burton or Andrei Iosivas get hurt, I'd consider buying high on Chase because career production could be in sight.
Don't Be Afraid of Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, or Saquon Barkley
McCaffrey has four seasons with at least 300 touches. Henry has five. Barkley has three. People have bad gut feelings about them. They misinterpret this as bad mileage and a breakdown coming. People should interpret this as proof that these players can handle league-leading workloads.
LaDainian Tomlinson had eight consecutive years of at least 300 touches. Marshall Faulk had four consecutive and seven total. Tiki Barber had five consecutive years between age 27-31. They were all McCaffrey's size.
If a running back has a strong offensive line, a track record of high volume, a capable quarterback, and a quarterback who can gain yardage with his feet, don't overthink it.
Jahmyr Gibbs is Good, But the Change In Usage Isn't A Fantasy Positive
Gibbs will see more time split from the formation as a receiver. The initial gut reaction in this space is that he's going to build on his already excellent 2024 campaign as a top-three fantasy option at his position.
Gibbs already earned 1,929 yards and 20 TDs from scrimmage last year -- the 95th-best total among running backs in history. For Gibbs to earn more from scrimmage, it will have to come more from the ground than through the air.
This seems counterintuitive, but follow the logic of the scheme and the game. In this case, your gut is not your friend.
The Lions like to create quick and easy passes in the short and intermediate ranges of the field. They generate longer-developing deep shots when they exploit defenses overplaying the run and quick passing. This means David Montgomery isn't going anywhere as a ground-gainer. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta will also continue earning short and intermediate volume as the basis for their production.
Isaac TeSlaa could earn deep shots as a situational match-up exploiter, but Jameson Williams will be one of the two big-time threats to stretch defenses vertically and horizontally with his speed and skill after the catch.
The other is Gibbs. Go against your gut reaction because it's more likely that Gibbs helps the offense with his expanded role in the passing game than he earns a massive boost in production for fantasy GMs.
The only way this boost comes is if the Lions suffer two or more injuries to their core starters in the passing game or if David Montgomery is out for more than five games. Otherwise, expect similar, or even slightly less production from Gibbs this year -- not more.
More Than A Gut Feeling: Davante Adams Is the Ram to Draft
Puka Nacua is a good receiver in an excellent scheme befitting his talents as a runner after the catch. Adams is an excellent receiver in an excellent scheme, and like Justin Jefferson, he's nearly quarterback-proof.
We may lose Matthew Stafford, and Jimmy Garoppolo may self-destruct at inopportune times, but Garoppolo throws a good ball with anticipation. He's an upgrade from some of the quarterbacks Adams has played with during the past two years.
My gut: Take a top RB in the first round where you'd have to otherwise take Nacua and get the more reliable and productive Rams' receiver two rounds later. If you don't want a running back yet and are stubborn, consider Nacua, but you'll likely be happier with Malik Nabers or Nico Collins.
Why? Well...
I Have No Reason to Avoid Puka Nacua, But . . .
I kind of am. Conveniently, I like Davante Adams more, and I prefer Nabers and Collins. Otherwise, I'd have to face my concerns about Nacua's injury and determine just how illogical they are.
Am I overreacting to his physical style of play, or are the knee and foot injuries, as well as Nacua's disclosure that he doesn't intend to have a long career, good reasons to avoid him? I'm glad I have reasons to delay having a stance.
Don't Dip Out on Brock Bowers
Just a gut feeling, but Chip Kelly is no Brian Schottenheimer in the same way Lamar Jackson is no Will Levis.
If you do the superficial fantasy analysis where folks look at the average production of Kelly's tight ends in his offenses, you'll see 700-800 yards from the leading option and maybe 900-1,100 yards from the room. Look deeper. For three of those four years, Kelly had subpar quarterback play and maybe one good receiver. It's all connected.
During Kelly's first year in Philly, he still had LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Michael Vick. That year, Zach Ertz and Brent Celek combined for 969 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Just a gut feeling, but Bowers is no Ertz or Celek in the same way my pitbull is no chihuahua. Bower is more like Ertz, Celek, and Riley Cooper combined.
Bowers has a better quarterback this year. He has a year of acclimation to the league, and his Kelly isn't blind.
It doesn't take a gut feeling to see that Bowers' 1,194-yard and 5-touchdown season is an appetizer for peak George Kittle or Travis Kelce totals to come. It means, at worst, similar yardage and more scores.
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