2023 Perfect Draft, Default ESPN Leagues

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Footballguys coined the Perfect Draft article series way back in 2002 when co-founder David Dodds started the series. We featured detailed stat projections and the principles of my Value-Based Drafting system Footballguys was built upon.

Over the years, it's become one of our cornerstone strategy features, delivering a clear plan for crushing your draft. Our stated goal at Footballguys is to help our customers win more at fantasy football, and the Perfect Draft series is a big part of how we do that.

Way back in 2002, David identified two key principles for a Perfect Draft:

1. All Players Have Value

Most of life can be referenced in The Godfather movie. In this case, it's keeping it business, not personal. This means: don't love or hate players. Don't get emotionally attached. Your goal for a Perfect Draft is to draft players who'll significantly outperform their draft position.

I don't believe in "Do Not Draft" lists. I do believe in "I won't draft him at his current Average Draft Position, so I probably won't be getting him" lists like our buddy Matt Waldman put together here.

2. Understand Your Competition In The Draft Room

Whether it's players for your draft, a new car, or Top Shot NFT, if you want to find a good deal on something, you first have to understand the market price of the thing. The going rate that most people agree something is worth. To find good deals in your fantasy draft, you must first understand your competitors' value of a player. In an Auction Draft, this is easy to see. In a regular draft, the cost of a player is their draft position.

You'll have the Perfect Draft when you select players more valuable than the cost of the spot where you draft them. You need to know how you value a player and how the other GMs in your league value a player. We provide this crucial information for you with our Average Draft Position Data.

I'll add four more.

3. Understand Your Scoring System And Your League

This one is the biggest thing I see fantasy GMs miss. It’s the foundation of my Value-Based Drafting system. Your scoring system matters. A LOT. Your starting lineup requirements matter. A LOT. The number of teams in your league matters. A LOT. You're reading a specific article written for a 10-team league with a specific scoring system and starting lineup requirement. We’ll say more below, but in this league, you can very likely wait on a quarterback as they're less valuable. But that’s not all leagues. If you’re in a 14-team superflex league, quarterbacks are insanely valuable. Because the situation is different.

It’s why I put little stock in blanket strategies advocating for shunning a position. Zero-RB or Zero-WR blanket strategies are better for gathering clicks than they are winning leagues. You must know more about your league’s scoring system, starting lineups, and number of teams to understand the value. Fortunately, we’ll do all that for you with our Custom Cheatsheets or our Draft Dominator if you want maximum flexibility. We’ll do the work for you.

4. Flexibility

Author David Allen writes about a concept called "Mind Like Water." He uses the example of how the water in a pond reacts appropriately to whatever rock you throw into it. If you throw a big rock into the pond, the water accepts the big rock and essentially says, "Nice. Big rock". If you throw a pebble into the water, the water accepts the pebble and says, "Nice. Pebble". The point is whatever you present to the water, it accepts and responds appropriately. In this case, the water is flexible.

This is how you should approach your draft. If you go in fixated on drafting two running backs in the first two rounds or avoiding running backs in the first two rounds or never taking a player over 30 years old or any host of inflexible rules you place on yourself, you won't have the Perfect Draft. Be flexible.

It's the adage of letting the game come to you. You need clear valuations of players. And you need a plan of how things may unfold based on what your league mates will do, and then you let the draft come to you. Respond appropriately as it unfolds.

5. Preparation

Seneca said, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

Stephen Leacock once observed: "I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."

Both these quotes apply to your fantasy draft. Your draft is no different than anything else important you do. The more prepared you are, the better you're likely to perform.

Think about it. Study the players. Tweak the values. And most importantly, think about how it will unfold. This is where mock drafting can be invaluable. Our Draft Dominator offers sophisticated mock drafting capability. If you do multiple mocks with it, you'll get different results each time.

In a draft setting with a short timer for each pick, there's little time to think. You need to have already thought. And execute based on the values you've already determined.

The very fact you're reading this article right now tells me you're on the right track with this one. Stay with it.

6. Get Your Guys And Have Fun

Regardless of the entry fee, almost all of us play fantasy football because it's fun. We think we know more about picking players than the other folks. Building and managing a team is fun. It's the foundation of our hobby. So have fun.

If you're a Dolphins fan and you hate Josh Allen, as every Dolphins fan should, and seeing him do well hurts your soul, you don't have to draft him. Even if he's there at a bargain. You can draft him. You can make the case you probably should draft him. But don't remove the fun from the value equation. You don't have to draft him.

The other way I see this play is fantasy GMs afraid to get their guy because someone will claim they "reached." Forget about what people say. (Another area where fantasy football is like life) You're drafting players for you. So go get your guys.

Few things are as sad as the GM in your draft who makes their pick and sounds like it's killing them. Draft players you're glad to have. It's way more fun.

You'll see plenty we love below as our Clayton Gray breaks down the pockets of value that will help you win.

Pull up a chair. Settle in. You got this.

Let's Have the Perfect Draft

This Perfect Draft is based on a 10-team league that starts the following players:

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 2 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (RB, WR, or TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

The league scoring is as follows:

• Passing TD = 4 points
• Passing Yard = 0.04 points
• Turnover = -2 point
• Rushing/Receiving TD = 6 points
• Rushing/Receiving Yard = 0.1 points
• Reception = 1 point

And in a 16-round draft, this will be your average roster construction:

• 1-2 quarterbacks
• 5-6 running backs
• 5-6 wide receivers
• 1-2 tight ends
• 1 kicker
• 1 defense

An Overview of Default ESPN Drafts

When you finish drafting, you'll notice there are many players who weren't drafted but could be very good this season.

There's a single reason for this. And it's not "All ESPN drafters are terrible."

It's the design of the leagues, specifically these two aspects:

• There are only 16 rounds
• Two rounds must be spent at kicker and defense

That only leaves 14 rounds to be spent taking skill position players. With only 10 teams, that's at most 140 skill position players. There are way more than 140 players worthy of being drafted.

If you don't believe that, let's dig in deeper.

The average team will look like this:

• 1.9 quarterbacks
• 4.6 running backs
• 5.8 wide receivers
• 1.5 tight ends
• 1.1 kickers
• 1.1 defenses

That means the average league will draft these numbers of players:

• 19 quarterbacks
• 46 running backs
• 58 wide receivers
• 15 tight ends
• 11 kickers
• 11 defenses

Now, go take a look at your rankings and find QB20, RB47, WR59, and TE16. Those guys are worth having this season.

A Balanced Approach

Throughout your draft, you'll see value. That's just the nature of an ESPN draft. ESPN serves as an introductory platform for new fantasy players. New players leave value on the floor. It's your duty to mop it up.

The best way to mop up value is to build a balanced roster. That way, you aren't forced to bypass players who are dropping too far in order to fill holes.

Your Preferred Schedule

Break up the draft into four sections of four rounds each. And do your best to keep to these positional ranges:

• Section 1 (after 4 rounds)
  • 0-1 quarterbacks
  • 1-2 running backs
  • 1-2 wide receivers
  • 0-1 tight ends
  • 0 kickers
  • 0 defenses
    
    
• Section 2 (after 8 rounds)
  • 0-1 quarterbacks
  • 3-4 running backs
  • 3-4 wide receivers
  • 0-1 tight ends
  • 0 kickers
  • 0 defenses
    
    
• Section 3 (after 12 rounds)
  • 1-2 quarterbacks
  • 4-5 running backs
  • 4-5 wide receivers
  • 1-2 tight ends
  • 0-1 kickers
  • 0-1 defenses
    
    
• Section 4 (after 16 rounds)
  • 1-2 quarterbacks
  • 5-6 running backs
  • 5-6 wide receivers
  • 1-2 tight ends
  • 1 kicker
  • 1 defense

The Top 40

Below are the Top 40 players based on the above scoring system using the Rankings Page or the Draft Dominator. These 40 players will be your focus for your first four picks and form the core of your team.

You'll also see these players' ESPN ADP. It is vital to realize how these numbers affect where ESPN users draft players.

Editor's Note: Just after publication, this news hit.

Rams HC Sean McVay said WR Cooper Kupp, who was not dressed out for the portion of today’s practice open to media, “got a little muscle strain.”

“Fair to say” it’s a setback for Kupp, who is currently day to day.

— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) August 31, 2023

Unless positive reports come back soon, just pass on Kupp. He's an older receiver and has had multiple soft-tissue injuries in the preseason. While he very well could have an injury-free season, the odds are not in his favor. As enticing as Kupp may be, just let someone else take this chance. There are many other very good players available.

Again, it is vital to realize how ESPN ADP affects where ESPN users draft players.

Consider Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is 11th overall in Footballguys projections. That means if you want him and have the 1.08 pick, you need to take him in the first round. Right?

No, he shouldn't be a first-round pick. He's generally drafted in the third round (with an ADP of 21). That makes St. Brown a great second-round pick.

As you take your core players (your first four picks), follow the positional ranges outlined for Section 1:

• Section 1 (after 4 rounds)
  • 0-1 quarterbacks
  • 1-2 running backs
  • 1-2 wide receivers
  • 0-1 tight ends

Building Your Backfield

Build your backfield steadily throughout the draft. If there is value at running back, grab it. If there isn't, feel free to find it at another position. You will be able to come back to running backs later because you are building a solid, balanced team.

Remember your guidelines for this position:

• After 4 rounds, 1-2 RBs
• After 8 rounds, 3-4 RBs
• After 12 rounds, 4-5 RBs
• After 16 rounds, 5-6 RBs

Here are the Top 70 running backs according to Footballguys, along with their corresponding ESPN ADP.

Rounding Out Your Wide Receivers

Just build your wide receivers consistently throughout the draft. If there is value at the position, grab it. If there isn't, feel free to find it elsewhere. You will be able to come back to wide receivers later because you are building a solid, balanced team.

Remember your guidelines for this position:

• After 4 rounds, 1-2 WRs
• After 8 rounds, 3-4 WRs
• After 12 rounds, 4-5 WRs
• After 16 rounds, 5-6 WRs

Here are the Top 71 wide receivers according to Footballguys, along with their corresponding ESPN rankings.

Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

These two positions are approached in one of two ways:

• Draft one early and possibly be finished at the position
• Take your starter later in the draft and likely have a backup

Pretty simple.

The biggest mistake you can make is to panic and take a tight end or a quarterback early and then draft another player at the position. There will be plenty of roster-worthy quarterbacks and tight ends on your waiver wire. If your elite starter goes down, you'll have options.

Remember your guidelines for these positions:

• After 4 rounds, 0-1 QBs and 0-1 TEs
• After 8 rounds, 0-1 QBs and 0-1 TEs
• After 12 rounds, 1-2 QBs and 1-2 TEs
• After 16 rounds, 1-2 QBs and 1-2 TEs

Here are the Top 26 at each position according to Footballguys, along with their corresponding ESPN rankings.

Kickers

In the olden days, aka "Before Value-Based Drafting," even experienced drafters would take kickers in the top half of their drafts. Sadly, for good players, those drafts are gone. In most leagues these days, kickers go late. Usually, in the last few rounds. Whatever happens in your league, you have a couple of strategies. They are both simple.

• When six kickers have been taken, pick the highest one available on your list.
• In Round 15, pick the highest one available on your list.

Some drafters will still take a pair of kickers. If you have a few of these people in your league and try to wait until the end of the draft to take a kicker, you could be stuck with a shaky option to start the season. Each of these strategies keeps that from happening without costing you much in the way of value. As you remember from the earlier sections, there are plenty of sleeper running backs and wide receivers with ADPs beyond Round 16.

And here's the list:

• Justin Tucker, Bal/13
• Tyler Bass, Buf/13
• Daniel Carlson, LV/13
• Matt Gay, Ind/11
• Younghoe Koo, Atl/11
• Harrison Butker, KC/10
• Evan McPherson, Cin/7
• Greg Joseph, Min/13
• Jake Elliott, Phi/10
• Chad Ryland, NE/11
• Jason Sanders, Mia/10
• Brandon McManus, Jac/9
• Jake Elliott, Phi/10
• Cameron Dicker, LAC/5

Bonus Kicker Strategy

Selecting a kicker with a late bye week can be helpful. That late bye week will allow you to worry about bye issues at other positions without using an extra roster spot at kicker.

Team Defenses

While not as maligned as the kicker position, team defense is an afterthought for many drafters. The Perfect Draft doesn't have time for afterthoughts. You have two choices at the position. The first one is similar to one of our kicker strategies: When four defenses have been taken, pick the highest one available on your list.

And here's the list:

• Philadelphia Eagles, Phi/10
• Dallas Cowboys, Dal/7
• New England Patriots, NE/11
• San Francisco 49ers, SF/9
• Buffalo Bills, Buf/13
• Baltimore Ravens, Bal/13
• New York Jets, NYJ/7
• Pittsburgh Steelers, Pit/6

Or you can follow the second strategy: Be bold and target defenses at home against weaker Week 1 opponents and start streaming defenses. That means you have five options:

• New Orleans Saints, NO/11 - vs. Tennessee
• Washington Commanders, Was/14 - vs. Arizona
• Atlanta Falcons, Atl/11 - vs. Carolina
• Denver Broncos, Den/9 - vs. Las Vegas
• Minnesota Vikings, Min/13 - vs. Tampa Bay

If you don't already have a defense, take one of these in Round 14.

There you go.

Let the principles above guide you. Study them. Study the players. Mock draft over and over until you feel comfortable with multiple scenarios for how the draft may unfold. Once you're into it, let the draft come to you. Be flexible; don't be afraid to get your guys. And have fun.

Let's crush this.