The 2024 season is almost upon us, so it's time for bold takes.
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We asked the Footballguys staff to give their ride-or-die takes for this season. Here's what they said.
A Bold Take from Gary Davenport
George Karlaftis of the Chiefs will finish his third NFL season as a top-10 fantasy defensive lineman.
There isn’t an edge-rusher who had over 45 tackles and 10 sacks last year who has been talked about less than Karlaftis. He may be Kansas City’s best pass-rusher, but when you live in the land of Mahomes and Kelce, there isn’t much spotlight left to be had.
Karlaftis will carve out more of that spotlight in 2024, though. The improvement he showed between his first and second seasons was impressive, and much like Maxx Crosby of the Raiders, folks are coming around to the idea that Karlaftis is more than just a “high motor” player. I’m not comparing the two players. Just pointing out that they shared the “limited athletically” tag entering the league. Given the ears-pinned-back playing-from-ahead opportunities that Karlaftis should see again in 2024, he takes the next step—and wins some IDP leagues in the process.
A Bold Take from Joseph Haggan
Yaya Diaby will finish as an Edge1.
Diaby came on slow in 2023 with just eight tackles in his first six games. From there on, he looked like a seasoned vet. He posted 30 tackles and seven-and-a-half sacks over the final 11 games. For reference. That is a pace of 46 tackles and 11.5 sacks for 17 games...as a rookie. Shaquil Barrett retired this off-season, leaving a starting role wide open across from Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Tryon-Shoyinka has been less than exciting, to say the least. The Buccaneers have a stout interior with Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, which will collapse the pocket, thus forcing quarterbacks to vacate outside. Whether it's winning off the edge or completing clean-up sacks, Diaby should be in for a big year.
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A Bold Take from Kyle Bellefeuil
Alex Highsmith will finish as a Top-10 edge rusher in 2024.
Highsmith’s breakout party came during the 2022 season when he produced 63 tackles (38 solos), 14.5 sacks, and a league-leading five forced fumbles (tied with Haason Reddick). However, Highsmith didn’t achieve the same success in the sack department in 2023, as he registered just seven after his breakout 2022 campaign. The thing is, his on-field play improved last season. Per Pro Football Focus, Highsmith registered 69 pressures and a 13.8% pressure rate in 2023 after posting 55 pressures and a 10.5% pressure rate in 2022. He also set career-best marks in his overall defensive grade (90.3) and pass rush grade (86.2), after grading in the 70s in both departments in 2022, per PFF. Highsmith was just unlucky in the sack column in 2023, and things are destined to return to the mean this coming season. Given his ideal snap volume (900+ snaps in back-to-back season) and positive pass-rush metrics, Highsmith is set to finish as a Top-10 edge rusher as he did two seasons ago.
A Bold Take from John Norton
Malcolm Koonce is real.
He is a player to whom most IDP managers pay little attention. That will change by the end of the season. The 2021 third-round pick was relatively quiet over his first two seasons. He didn't record a bunch of sacks or show up on highlight films, but he quietly did the things that coaches notice, with pressures, QB hits, and good play against the run.
Koonce became a starter during the 2022 season. Through the first eight games in 2023, he was sitting at 9-7-0, then the lights came on. Over the final nine games, Koonce produced 24 tackles, four assists, 8 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. Those numbers made him a top-ten edge from week nine through the end of the year. He will pick up right where last season left off and be at least a quality second starter for you, possibly a top-twelve edge.
A Bold Take from Tripp Brebner
Jared Verse and Marshawn Kneeland will lead rookie edge defenders in fantasy points.
And they'll actually be useful to gamers on Sundays! Fantasy gamers are often quick to draft real-life first-rounders in redraft leagues only to be disappointed. Since 2020, just two have finished among the top 20 scorers at the position, and both were second-overall picks in real life. The Rams' Byron Young was nearly the third last year, thanks partly to high volume and tackle opportunities in coverage. Verse joins Young in L.A. for 2024 and will sneak into the top 20.
The real value is Dallas's Kneeland. The second-rounder has surprisingly pushed retread veterans off the roster and will play first-team alongside DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons in some packages. Kneeland already looks like a pro at setting the edge. These three will soak up snaps this year in a shallower Cowboys front. Kneeland might be found on fantasy waiver wires and has Edge3 upside if the Dallas pass rush keeps up the pace of the past three seasons.
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