Week 1 confirmed some of our preseason beliefs about some offenses and shocked us when it came to others. Adjusting quickly to the new information will be the key to dominating Week 2. Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 2 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds. In future weeks, we will go deeper into player utilization trends.
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 2.
Note: Chicago at Houston is only included on the FanDuel Main Slate.
- Upper left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still expected to score more than the average team on the slate. This is an easy way to identify the games most likely to turn into shootouts. Two teams are in this quadrant for Week 2, meaning these games should be trendy. The Buccaneers travel to Detroit as 7-point underdogs. However, the game has a massive 51.5 over/under. Vegas expects fireworks. The Rams are once again underdogs in a potential shootout in Arizona. Cooper Kupp may be the most popular play on the slate.
- Upper right: These are the teams favored and expected to score an above-average amount of points. In both cash games and GPPs, we want to focus heavily on the teams in this quadrant. This should be an especially fruitful part of the slate to look for running backs, given that we should expect positive game scripts. The Ravens are substantial 10-point favorites against the Raiders. Derrick Henry played only 49% of the snaps in Week 1, but that was a completely different game environment. We may see him unleashed in Week 2. The Lions look to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. Jameson Williams is still affordable because the Sunday night breakout performance did not impact his Week 2 pricing.
- Bottom right: These are teams that are favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we are interested in running backs (positive game scripts are expected) from these teams, but given the low totals, we should be a bit suspicious of the passing games. The Seahawks rushing offense was strong in Week 1. Keep an eye on Kenneth Walker's health. If he is out, Zach Charbonnet will be popular.
- Bottom left: This is where we want to be careful and only roster players we feel incredibly strongly about. The teams here are underdogs and are not expected to score many points. This week, Jerome Ford and Rhamdondre Stevenson project as strong values, but we should be wary of negative game scripts.
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