DFS First Look: Week 10

DFS First Look is back for Week 10. As always, every projection in this article is my own, and they come from simulating every game on the slate 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible lineup under the salary cap across those sims. For GPPs, comparing those optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (Devin Knotts puts those together later in the week) is one of the best ways to find the guys who are overvalued or undervalued.

This was a busy week to be writing on a Wednesday morning, with the trade deadline on Tuesday and a handful of big names hurt in Week 9. Any news that comes out after this goes live will change my projections (I update them daily on Footballguys), and that can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP.

The deadline move that matters most for DFS this week happened in Indianapolis. The Colts traded away their top two healthy receivers, sending Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Josh Downs to Kansas City. Allen and Downs combined for 115 of the Colts’ 287 targets this season, making Tyler Warren the clear top target in the offense and pushing Laquon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin into more prominent roles. Treadwell is in nine of the ten top DraftKings cash lineups at $3,000, and Warren is tied with George Kittle for the second-best points-per-dollar projection at tight end. Warren is one of my favorite tournament plays this week. Elsewhere, the Vikings traded for Kirk Cousins, who could start Sunday in Green Bay, which makes rookie Fernando Mendoza the starter in Las Vegas.

On the injury side, Puka Nacua is likely headed to injured reserve; Sam Darnold is out with a quad injury and a cracked rib; Malik Willis (Kyle McCord starts) and Gardner Minshew II (Carson Beck makes his first NFL start) are both on injured reserve; and Josh Jacobs needs finger surgery.

As usual, here are the key questionable players and whether I have them in or out. These guys are below 50 percent to play in my projections, so they’re out of the sims for now:

• George Pickens, Cowboys (hamstring)
• Mike Evans, 49ers (Achilles)
• Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (hamstring)
• David Montgomery, Texans (groin)
• Rashid Shaheed, Seahawks (knee)
• Tyler Goodson, Cowboys (knee)
• Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (knee)

And these guys are at 50 percent or better, so they’re in for now, but any of them could flip with this week’s practice reports:

• Deebo Samuel Sr., 49ers (hamstring)
• Garrett Wilson, Jets (concussion)
• Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs (elbow)
• Drew Lock, Seahawks (oblique)
• Carnell Tate, Titans (shoulder)
• Tyjae Spears, Titans (knee)
• Jaylen Wright, Dolphins (quad)
• MarShawn Lloyd, Packers (knee)

Two of these are important for cash games. The first is George Pickens. I have him at 45 percent, and this one feels like it could go either way, so it looks like another decision that comes late in the week. Without Pickens in Week 9, CeeDee Lamb drew 16 targets and went for 195 yards and a touchdown. Lamb is the top receiver on both sites in the sims, and he would take a hit if Pickens plays.

The second is the San Francisco receiver group. Mike Evans is unlikely to play, and I have Deebo Samuel Sr. in for now after he missed a third straight game. Keenan Allen arrives from Indianapolis, but it is hard to know how much he plays in his first week. If Samuel sits again, George Kittle gets another bump, and he is already the top tight end on FanDuel.

Slate Overview

The slate overview is built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks), plus my Matchup Rating for each position, which is my best guess at how much this week's opponent will help or hurt that position. A rating of +10% means players at that position should score about 10 percent more than usual. It blends this season's games with last season's and the betting lines, and it trusts this season's results a little more each week. The DST column rates the offense each defense is facing.

The main slate is 10 games, with Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay on bye. Seven games kick off at 1:00, with the Rams at Arizona and Seattle at Las Vegas at 4:05 and San Francisco at Dallas at 4:25.

San Francisco at Dallas is the game of the week, with a 55.5 total that is five points higher than any other game on the slate. The 49ers (29.5) are 3.5-point road favorites, and my Matchup Rating has the San Francisco quarterback and running backs with the best matchups on the slate and the receivers second-best. That puts Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle near the top of my list again. Dallas has run the ball more over the last three weeks, but CeeDee Lamb has been a target hog with Pickens out, and Javonte Williams has a bigger projected role with Goodson hurt. Both sides of this game show up all over the optimal lineups.

Buffalo (29.5) is an 8.5-point road favorite over the Jets. James Cook III carried 31 times on Monday night, the most carries for any player in a game this season, and he has a rushing touchdown in seven straight games. Josh Allen has the highest quarterback projection on both sites.

Jacksonville (28.5) is a 10.5-point road favorite in Tennessee, the biggest spread on the slate. My Matchup Rating has the Jacksonville receivers with the best matchup on the slate, which makes Parker Washington one of my favorite plays this week, and the Jaguars defense has a top-three DST matchup.

New Orleans (25.5) gets the biggest bump of the week, 15 percent above its season average, as a 2.5-point home favorite over Carolina. Having Kelvin Banks back at left tackle (he returned last week after missing five games) is a big deal for this offense. Tyler Shough has the best points-per-dollar projection at quarterback on both sites, and Jordyn Tyson is in all ten of the top FanDuel cash lineups, which assumes his usage ramps up in his second week back. On the other side, Chuba Hubbard and Tetairoa McMillan are both strong plays in a game with a 48.5 total.

The Rams (24.5) are 9.5-point road favorites in Arizona, and the Arizona offense has the lowest implied total on the slate at 15.0 with Carson Beck making his first start. With Nacua out, the Rams’ cheap receivers become very interesting, and Tutu Atwell is in all ten of the top DraftKings cash lineups at $3,700. The Rams tight ends also have the best tight end matchup on the slate. Figuring out where all of Nacua’s vacated targets land is going to be one of the biggest keys to the slate. If only Terrance Ferguson hadn't pulled his hammy last week...

Seattle (23.5) is a 6.5-point road favorite in Las Vegas with Drew Lock at quarterback, and Mendoza takes over as the starter for the Raiders. My Matchup Rating has every Las Vegas position with the worst matchup on the slate, so I am not chasing anyone on the Raiders outside of Brock Bowers in tournaments.

As mentioned in the intro, Indianapolis traded Keenan Allen and Josh Downs, which spreads a lot of targets among Tyler Warren, Laquon Treadwell, Deion Burks, and Ashton Dulin.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen at $7,500 is the top quarterback on DraftKings at 14.2 percent of optimal lineups, and he has the highest projection at the position at 24.9 points. Buffalo is tied for the top implied total on the slate, and Allen has nine rushing touchdowns in eight games, which gives him a high floor to go with the ceiling.

Brock Purdy at $7,000 (10.6 percent) has the second-highest projection at 23.0 points and the best quarterback matchup on the slate. 

Tyler Shough at $5,600 (9.7 percent) has the best points-per-dollar projection at the position and is in eight of the ten top DraftKings cash lineups. New Orleans has a surprisingly high 25.5-point implied team total this week, and Shough has run for 162 yards and two touchdowns to go with his 14 touchdown passes. I’m intrigued by what this passing offense could become with Jordyn Tyson back in the lineup.

Running Backs