The Week 10 main slate feels pretty straightforward as long as Ken Walker III plays. Walker missed Friday's practice with a groin injury and is truly questionable, and Andy Reid said he has some work to do before Sunday, with Emmett Johnson set to start if he sits. We wouldn't expect Johnson to be quite as productive as Walker, who has averaged 22.9 FanDuel points per game, but if Walker is out, my projection has Johnson at about 18.5 carries and nearly four targets for 16.5 FanDuel points, which is not far off. The difference is that Walker costs $9,800 and Johnson costs $5,100, so if Walker sits, you just play the $5,100 back who would have a huge rushing and receiving role against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Walker's status has an especially big impact on the slate because there is very little of interest at running back under $6,300.
Beyond Walker, the injury news I am watching most is in Houston and New Orleans. David Montgomery practiced on Thursday and Friday for the first time since his groin injury and is questionable, and Travis Etienne Jr. practiced in full on Friday as he works his way back from injured reserve, and both situations matter a lot for the backs around them (more on this below). Elsewhere, Minnesota is without T.J. Hockenson and Jauan Jennings, so Kirk Cousins makes his first start since the Vikings brought him back at the trade deadline with a narrowed target tree. Carnell Tate, Marvin Harrison Jr., Mike Evans, Josh Jacobs and Jake Ferguson are all out. Sam Darnold is out again, so Drew Lock starts for Seattle against a Las Vegas team starting Fernando Mendoza for the first time, and the Rams placed Puka Nacua on injured reserve, which leaves Tutu Atwell, Konata Mumpfield and CJ Daniels as their top three receivers with Davante Adams and Jordan Whittington also out.
My fantasy point projections are built on a simulation of every game on the slate run ten thousand times. The simulation also solves the best possible FanDuel lineup in each of those ten thousand worlds, and how often a player lands in that best lineup is his optimal percentage, which is the best single number I have for how much tournament upside a player offers at his salary. At each position, I will go through the players expected to be the most popular (the chalk), with the ones I want to go heavy on marked as good chalk, and then a few other targets I like this week.
Slate Overview
The table below gives a big-picture view of the slate. It shows each team's implied total, how that compares to my season projection for the offense, how often that team's players show up in the optimal lineups across the ten thousand simulations, and how popular those players are projected to be.
This week's main slate has 10 games. San Francisco has the highest implied total at 30 points, followed by Buffalo at 29.5 and Jacksonville at 28.5, and those three offenses also fill the most optimal lineups. The field is going to be heaviest on Carolina, Dallas, and the Rams, with all three showing up on more rosters than in the optimal lineups. Buffalo, Minnesota and Arizona are the offenses the simulation likes more than the field does, and the gap is biggest for the Bills. As a bit of a spoiler, my favorite plays at both quarterback and running back this week are Bills.
San Francisco 49ers, 30.0, at Dallas Cowboys, 25.5
This is the game of the week, with a 55.5-point total and San Francisco a 4.5-point road favorite. The 49ers' 30-point implied total is 13 percent above my season number for them, and Dallas has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the fifth-most to running backs, so the matchup is as good as the implied total suggests. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are all good chalk this week, and with Evans out again, the passing game should once again run through Kittle and McCaffrey, with Allen and Deebo Samuel Sr. behind them. On the Dallas side, CeeDee Lamb is projected to be the most popular receiver on the slate, but San Francisco has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers, and the field is going to be heavier on the Cowboys than the simulation is. George Pickens practiced all week and has no injury designation, which also takes some targets away from Lamb. I like Pickens this week, as he lands in 11.8 percent of the optimal lineups at $7,000 and should be on far fewer rosters than Lamb.
Buffalo Bills, 29.5, at New York Jets, 21.0
Buffalo is an 8.5-point road favorite, and the Bills are the team I most want to overweight on this slate. Bills players fill 67 percent of the optimal lineups, the most of any team, while being projected for only about 53 percent of rosters. Allen and James Cook III are both good chalk, and the Jets have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. On the Jets' side, the 21-point implied total is 7 percent above my season number for them, and with Wilson back, Geno Smith is one of my quarterback targets as a cheap bring-back opposite Cook.
Jacksonville Jaguars, 28.5, at Tennessee Titans, 18.0
Jacksonville is a 10.5-point road favorite, and Tennessee has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers and the sixth-most to quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence is good chalk, and Parker Washington, who is projected to be the second-most popular receiver, is his most common partner in the optimal lineups (35 percent of Lawrence's optimal lineups). Bhayshul Tuten lands in 14.9 percent of the optimal lineups and is projected for about 13.5 percent of rosters, so he is right where he should be.
New Orleans Saints, 25.5, vs. Carolina Panthers, 23.0
This is my favorite game environment on the slate to target. New Orleans' 25.5 implied total is healthy, and both defenses in this game have been generous to running backs. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs, and Carolina has allowed the second-most. That is a big part of why Chuba Hubbard will be so popular, and the Panthers are projected to be the most popular offense on the slate. Tetairoa McMillan is good chalk, but Bryce Young and Jalen Coker are both projected to be more popular than the simulation thinks they should be. On the New Orleans side, Tyler Shough is one of my quarterback targets, and I love Jordyn Tyson this week. He is only $4,900; my projection has him at about seven targets in his second NFL game, and he lands in 10.1 percent of the optimal lineups. The one thing to keep an eye on is that the Saints sent him to a hamstring specialist this week, though he does not carry an injury designation. Audric Estimé would be a strong running back play if Travis Etienne Jr. doesn’t return.
Green Bay Packers, 22.5, vs. Minnesota Vikings, 20.0
Cousins makes his first start of his second stint in Minnesota without Hockenson or Jennings, so the Vikings' passing game should be concentrated between Jefferson and Addison. Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to both receivers and running backs, and the simulation likes the Vikings more than the field does, with Minnesota players landing in 42 percent of the optimal lineups against about 30 percent of rosters. Jefferson is good chalk, and Addison is one of my receiver targets. On the Green Bay side, Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and the third-fewest to receivers, which makes it hard to get excited about Jordan Love, Matthew Golden or Christian Watson, and with Jacobs out, the Packers' backfield looks like a committee, though Kaleb Johnson is the one I would pick, with about nine carries in my projection.
Los Angeles Rams, 24.5, at Arizona Cardinals, 15.0
The Rams are 9.5-point road favorites, and Arizona's 15-point implied total is the lowest on the slate. With Nacua on injured reserve and Adams and Whittington out, I expect the Rams to lean on the running game, and my projection has Matthew Stafford at only about 31 pass attempts. Kyren Williams will be popular, but I like Blake Corum more relative to his price and popularity. The Rams' defense is projected to be the most popular at the position. On the Arizona side, Trey McBride is the one Cardinal I want, since a 9.5-point underdog should be throwing plenty, and the wide receiver injuries should funnel a couple extra targets his way.
Quarterbacks
Purdy is projected to be the most popular quarterback on the slate at 12.8 percent, and he lands in 13.0 percent of the optimal lineups, so the simulation is right in line with the field. Dak Prescott is my biggest fade at the position. He is the second-most popular quarterback, but he lands in only 6.0 percent of the optimal lineups, as San Francisco has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Bryce Young is the other chalk quarterback I would be underweight on, since he lands in about 5 percent of the optimal lineups while being projected for more than 9 percent of rosters. Michael Penix Jr. will also be more popular than he should be, as Kansas City has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Purdy, Allen, and Lawrence are the three chalk quarterbacks I want to go heavy on.
Josh Allen, Bills, $9,500
Allen lands in 16.8 percent of the optimal lineups, the most of any quarterback by a wide margin, and he is only the fourth-most popular quarterback on the slate. That being said, take the current percent rostered projections with a grain of salt, since all of that could change in a heartbeat if Walker is out and Emmett Johnson instantly becomes a 70 percent rostered player at $5,100, which would open up a ton of salary. We know all the reasons to play Allen. He has 2,027 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions through eight games, and he has added 285 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Nine rushing touchdowns in eight games is a crazy number, but it is not all that far out of line with what he has done in recent seasons, and that rushing touchdown upside is what gives him a ceiling no other quarterback on the slate can match. He opened the season with 35.7 and 40.8 FanDuel points, and he has topped 26 points in two of his last four games. My projection has him at about 243 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns plus nine carries for 44 yards and nearly a rushing touchdown. The Jets have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, so the matchup is neutral, but Buffalo has a 29.5-point implied total, and Allen is the best quarterback play on the slate.
Brock Purdy, 49ers, $8,700
Purdy has 1,980 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions through eight games, and he scored 25.3 FanDuel points against Las Vegas last week. My projection has him at about 265 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns, the most passing touchdowns of any quarterback on the slate, and Dallas has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. San Francisco has the highest implied total on the slate in the highest-total game. Purdy will be popular, and I’m not sure this is a spot where he puts up a true ceiling performance, but he is popular for good reasons, and I am happy to be right with the field on him.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, $7,700
Lawrence has 1,932 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions through eight games, and he has scored at least 19.4 FanDuel points in four of his last six. His numbers would be even better if he had needed to throw more in the second half of games, as Jacksonville has won by at least 23 points in half of its games this season, and Lawrence was pulled early in three of those four blowouts. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Jacksonville is a 10.5-point favorite, so game script could limit his volume late again. That said, Cam Ward and the Titans' offense have looked much better in recent weeks, scoring at least 24 points in each of their last three games, and they could push Lawrence for the first time since his 306-yard, four-touchdown game against Houston in Week 6.
Quarterbacks: Other Targets
Tyler Shough, Saints, $7,300
Shough is a volume play, as he is averaging 38.5 pass attempts per game with 1,986 yards and 14 touchdowns through eight games. The Saints play fast and like to throw the ball, ranking fourth in both plays and pass attempts per game. He has also become more involved as a runner, with 10 carries against Cleveland last week on his way to 19.7 FanDuel points. My projection has him at about 35 pass attempts, 247 yards and 1.8 touchdowns. He lands in 10.2 percent of the optimal lineups, the third-most of any quarterback, at $1,400 less than Purdy. Chris Olave is his most common partner in the optimal lineups, followed by Jordyn Tyson. I love rolling the dice on Shough-Tyson stacks this week.
C.J. Stroud, Texans, $7,500
Stroud has 2,251 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and only two interceptions through eight games, and he is coming off his best game of the season, 35.4 FanDuel points against the Chargers. With Harrison Jr. out, the targets should be concentrated on Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. Cleveland has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, which is part of why the field may pass on him (he is projected for 2.3 percent of rosters). Collins shows up in 28 percent of his optimal lineups, and Stroud with Collins is one of my favorite low-owned stacks on the slate. I wish Dell were cheaper on FanDuel this week, as he costs $5,800 here compared to $3,900 on DraftKings.
Geno Smith, Jets, $6,600
Smith is the cheapest quarterback on my list. He has 2,078 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions through nine games, and he scored 23.5 and 18.0 FanDuel points in Weeks 7 and 8 before a quiet game in Kansas City. As an 8.5-point underdog, New York should be throwing, and my projection has him at about 33 pass attempts for 230 yards. Getting Wilson back helps, as Wilson shows up in 28 percent of Smith's optimal lineups.
Running Backs
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