Prop Talk: Week 2

Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!

As our Devin Knotts noted in the Week 1 article, I'll be taking over the writing of Prop Talk this season! The article will come out on Fridays. 

Our goal is to help you win some money on player props this season. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections--as well as my insights.

Let's dive right into some Week 2 NFL props.

Week 2 NFL Props

We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL props lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!

Rhamondre Stevenson Over/Under 2.5 Receptions (DraftKings)

Stevenson is coming off a terrific game in Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals, with over 100 yards on the ground. He also added three catches in that game but didn't really have to do much as the Patriots managed to control the pace of the game. Notably, their much-maligned offensive line (30th in our Matt Bitonti's OL Rankings) did not play that poorly, ranking tenth in Run Block Win Rate, per ESPN.

Onto Week 2 we go, and the Patriots face off against the Seattle Seahawks, who overcome a tough start to manhandle the Denver Broncos. Stevenson should see the same usage this week, but we also need to note that Seahawks head coach, Mike McDonald, is running the defense now in Seattle, and things may be different. The Seahawks had a ton of pressure on Bo Nix in Week 1 while ranking 13th in Pass Rush Win Rate and along that line, the running backs received eight targets.

I can see Rhamondre being very busy in the dump-off game this week. In 2023, he averaged just over three catches per game.

Pick: Stevenson OVER 2.5 catches (-120)

Tony Pollard Over/Under 14.5 Longest Rush (DraftKings)

Longest rush and reception props are some of my favorite NFL props to make, and you'll see plenty of them in this article going forward! Pollard had an awesome Week 1, ranking ninth in Rush Yards over Expected in the win against the Chicago Bears. 

Tony Pollard Week 1

- 39 snaps
- 83.3% route participation
- 4 targets
- 16 carries
- 3 carries of 10+ yards
- 4.44 yards after contact per attempt
- 5.1 yards per attempt
- 0.87 RYOE per attempt

Workhorse role and very good efficiency.

Big riser heading into Week 2.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 9, 2024

You may say, "WAIT! Why are you betting an over against the New York Jets' defense? Aren't they a very good unit?" While the Jets are an elite defense (especially in fantasy football), they have struggled to defend the run recently. In the Week 1 game against the San Francisco 49ers, they struggled mightily, allowing Jordan Mason to run for 147 yards and a touchdown.

I make this correlation because the 49ers and the Titans run similar rushing schemes. The 49ers love using a zone-rush scheme, and the Titans ran inside zone on 43.2% of their rushes in Week 1, per FTN, ranking second in the NFL. They had a 19.2% Explosive Rush Rate, which runs for over ten yards, against the Bears. The Jets also allowed a high ERR and six runs of 10+ yards.

Pick: Pollard OVER 14.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110)