A bust is a player who can lead you to a losing season. And the earlier you have to pick a bust, the more damage he can do to your team.
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To be clear, we define busts as players who we think will perform worse than most expect and be overvalued at their average draft position.
Our staff recently gathered to offer up their busts for this season. Here they are.
Quarterback Bust from Julia Papworth
C.J. Stroud, Houston
I hate to call this man a bust, but C.J. Stroud could be just that by our definition. I believe Stroud will have a fantastic year, but it will be tough for him to pay off on his ADP. The Footballguys consensus ranking of Stroud is QB7, and he is currently drafted in the fourth round on Sleeper. The main reason that I see the potential of Stroud busting is the fact that he is a pocket passer. To be a successful fantasy quarterback, if you are a pocket passer, you must capitalize on touchdowns, and Stroud would have to throw a lot of them. Last year, he had 23 touchdowns and over 4000 passing yards and finished at QB11. So, if you are drafting Stroud as the QB7 this year, you are betting on an increase of touchdowns and yardage. How much of an increase, you ask? Well, Jared Goff finished as the QB7 last season, and he had 30 touchdowns and almost 4600 yards passing. It’s not impossible, but I would rather put my money on someone with better odds.
Quarterback Busts from Jason Wood
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
Similar to Julia's perspective on C.J. Stroud, I can't say that I think Anthony Richardson is egregiously over-ranked, as I have him QB10 currently. Even that feels aggressive, yet his ADP is pushing for top-5 at the position several rounds earlier. I can't fathom betting on a quarterback we saw play two full games as a rookie over so many proven commodities. The quarterback position looks 20+ deep in startable options this year, making the necessity to reach for a lottery ticket in the early rounds impossible to justify.
Josh Allen, Buffalo
I'm hesitant to list Allen for fear it might come across as a hot take, especially since I still rank him as QB3. It's not that I think he'll genuinely bust. However, given that he's almost universally considered the No. 1 quarterback and is being drafted earlier than anyone else at the position, I believe the smart play is to pass on him this year. I detailed my thoughts in a recent article, but the crux of my argument is that his changing receiving corps and the new offensive coordinator/scheme are more likely to result in a QB7 finish rather than QB1. In that case, there's no way I'm drafting him at the top of the rankings.