When the passengers boarded the RMS Titanic back in 1912, they didn't know that they were headed for disaster. That the ship would strike an iceberg and wind up at the bottom of the North Atlantic. That there weren't enough lifeboats. That they would one day be characters in an excruciatingly long James Cameron movie.
They thought they were going to cross the ocean in high style (well, the rich passengers, anyway). That all was right with the world.
It's the same with IDP managers on draft day. No one walks out of a draft thinking they just selected a team full of busts that will fail to meet expectations. That the team they just so carefully assembled is a ticking time bomb of suck and misery.
OK, I do. But normal people don't.
Now, sometimes, catastrophe is unavoidable. Players get injured--that's just how football works. In IDP leagues, some positions are inherently volatile--an edge-rusher can post the same pressure numbers as the season before and see their sacks cut in half if for no other reason than they are a fraction of a second late getting to the quarterback. Big-play-reliant defensive backs ping-pong from the fantasy penthouse to the outhouse because, well, they are defensive backs.
But just like when Rose Dawson realizes that there aren't enough lifeboats to go around, sometimes the red flags are there--signs that trouble could be brewing.
Come on. After I mentioned Titanic, you had to know that video was coming. Consider it my summer soundtrack of stupid.
We don't have reliable ADP information to guide us when looking for overvalued defensive players. But there are indicators that danger could lurk ahead. Sometimes it's a player's age. Or a change in situation. An over-reliance on big plays. Or an outlier season that isn't especially likely to repeat.
Whatever the reason, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about these individual defensive players in 2025. That doesn't mean that they are doomed to fail in 2025. Or that they should be avoided at all costs--there are very few truly undraftable players.
But if fantasy managers choose to ignore the warning signs with these IDPs, they risk their season landing about as well as the Hindenburg.
Talk about warning signs. Hydrogen? Seriously?
Season-Ruining IDP Busts
EDGE Nik Bonitto, Denver
Two years ago, Bonitto showed signs of being an ascending talent, posting eight sacks in 524 snaps with the Broncos. Last year, Bonitto's role grew with the team, and so did his production--the 25-year-old erupted for 48 total tackles and logged 13.5 sacks, finishing as the runner-up to Minnesota's Andrew Van Ginkel (file that name away) in fantasy points among defensive linemen.
In what's about to become a theme, the 2024 season rather reeks of a spike year from Bonitto. His sack-to-pressure ratio was high enough to question its sustainability. He scored touchdowns on both a fumble return and an interception return, which, um, ain't gonna happen again. And Bonitto isn't a big tackles guy. At cost, Bonitto's batterymate Jonathon Cooper is a better IDP value in 2025.
EDGE Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati
Over the past five seasons, there haven't been many pass-rushers more productive than Henderson. The ninth-year veteran has posted at least 13.5 sacks four times over that span, including leading the NFL with his second consecutive 17.5-sack season in 2024. At some point, his contract impasse with the Bengals is going to be resolved--if Cincy has any legitimate playoff aspirations, the team has to have Hendrickson on the field.
However, there has been nothing to indicate that's going to happen soon, and we have seen time and again what a lost offseason can do to a player. Hendrickson is all but certainly working out on his own, but "in shape" and "in game shape" aren't the same thing. We're also talking a player past his 30th birthday who has always been big-play reliant--his career-high in tackles was 46 a year ago.
EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota
Van Ginkel is a great story--Zack Baun in reverse. After languishing as an off-ball linebacker for years, Van Ginkel was thrust into a role as an edge-rusher with the Miami Dolphins in 2023--and thrived. Six sacks in Miami got Van Ginkel a free-agent pact with the Vikings, where he went off--career highs in total tackles (79) and sacks (11.5) on the way to finishing as the king of fantasy DL in 2024.
His hair is also glorious.
Maybe that was the lightbulb moment for a late bloomer who will back up the gaudy numbers he posted in 2024, and his tackle numbers (69 stops in 2023) appear to offer a fantasy floor that should appeal to IDP managers. But we're also talking about a 30-year-old player for whom everything went right last year. It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where Van Ginkel's statistical production drops substantially in 2025--even if his level of play really doesn't.
DT Leonard Williams, Seattle
Here's a news flash for you--defensive tackles not named Aaron Donald are high-variance in IDP leagues. The No. 1 defensive tackle two years ago was Baltimore's Nnamdi Madubuike, who exploded for 13 sacks. Last year, that number dropped to 6.5--and that was still the second-highest total of his career. Madubuike fell to DT19 in The Godfather's Default IDP Scoring--and there was wailing and lamentations.
Sadly, Williams could be headed toward a similar fate in 2025 after finishing in the top spot at the position last season. It has nothing to do with Williams as a player--the 31-year-old has had an excellent decade-long career. However, Williams has surpassed 10 sacks just twice over the past 10 years, and he has only achieved seven sacks one other time. Williams is a lock to regress this year. The only question is by how much.
LB Nick Bolton, Kansas City
As recently as 2022, Bolton looked to be headed for IDP superstardom--that year, the fifth-year pro piled up a whopping 180 total tackles and finished third among all linebackers in fantasy points. There's a reason why the Chiefs are paying the 25-year-old $15 million a season.
But there's a difference between NFL impact and IDP impact--an important one.
Maybe Bolton's 106 total tackles last year and LB21 fantasy finish were at least in part due to the injuries that limited him to eight games the season before. But Bolton's 2022 (right now) rampage looks to be the exception and not the rule--and that could have as much to do with scheme and role as anything. Bolton's an excellent NFL linebacker. But he's overvalued by many IDP drafters.
LB Alex Singleton, Denver
No, this isn't piling on the Broncos. This analyst is still bitter as hell about "The Drive" and "The Fumble." But still, no piling on.
There's no denying that when healthy, Singleton is a wildly productive player. In both 2022 and 2023, Singleton surpassed 160 total tackles. He was seventh among linebackers in fantasy points two years ago and has four years with 120 tackles in six NFL seasons.
However, "when healthy" is a real caveat with Singleton, and in 2024, he made it just three games into the season before tearing his ACL. Singleton is 31, coming off a major injury, and could have increased competition for tackle opportunities with Dre Greenlaw's arrival. Drafting him inside LB1 territory is asking for trouble.
LB Bobby Wagner, Washington
Bobby Wagner is arguably the best linebacker of his generation. In 13 years in the NFL, Wagner has never failed to record triple-digit tackles. In each of the past nine years, Wagner has amassed at least 130 total stops. He has led the NFL in total tackles three times. Been named a first-team All-Pro five times. Wagner is a 10-time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl champion, and a likely Hall of Famer.
He's also overvalued by IDP managers because he's Bobby Wagner, and we can't help it.
Last season, Wagner had "just" 132 total tackles--his lowest output in that category in a decade. His 75 solo tackles were Wagner's fewest since 2015. His big play numbers were down. And while the Commanders made the NFC title game, Wagner was just 18th in fantasy points at his position.
Don't overpay for the name--even if it's Bobby Wagner.
_jpg)
S Budda Baker, Arizona
Baker is my No. 1 defensive back for 2025, and with good reason--Baker's ridonkulous 164 total tackles last year were the most by any defensive player in the NFC. It's not the first time he's led the league in a tackle stat, either--back in 2019, Baker's 104 solo stops paced the NFL. Over the past five seasons, Baker has been about as consistent on a per-game basis as IDP managers can reasonably expect a defensive back to be.
But every defensive back who goes first at his position (with the potential exception of cheat-code Travis Hunter) is overvalued. Defensive backs are deep. And volatile--Baker missed five games two years ago and finished the season 47th in fantasy points at his position. A pick spent on an elite fantasy defensive back is wasted draft capital better used on defensive linemen or linebackers.
S Brian Branch, Detroit
The Lions drafted Branch to be an impact player in the secondary. And just two years into his professional career, the former Alabama star hasn't disappointed. On the way to a DB3 fantasy finish last season, Branch did just about everything an IDP manager could hope for--109 total tackles, four interceptions, and a couple more big plays. He's one of the best young safeties in the NFL.
He's also being drafted at his IDP ceiling--at least.
Branch is the consensus DB1 at Fantasy Pros, and those IDP pundits can no doubt make a valid argument for his being drafted there. But Branch's role isn't especially conducive to triple-digit tackles. If his big plays dip, so will his production.
Say it with me. Fade elite defensive backs.
S Tre'von Moehrig, Carolina
I'll lay off the "fade defensive backs" dogma now. For a second. In this column.
Seriously, though. Fade them like that guy with a cough in London in 1665. Look it up. Learn something. Be a first for one of my columns.
Moehrig is the poster dude in 2025 for "chasing ghosts" in the secondary. He was admittedly an IDP bargain last year, surpassing 100 total tackles and finishing inside the top-15 defensive backs. That players like Moehrig pop up each and every season is the reason behind that strategy we aren't talking about anymore.
Moehrig's breakout season got him $34.5 million in guaranteed cheese from the Panthers. But it doesn't make him an elite talent. Or change the fact he'll likely play deep more than in the box in Charlotte.
Iceberg, right ahead!
Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPGodfather.
_(1000_x_500_px)_png)