Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 4

Week three was a wild one. It was full of injuries, players emerging, and surprise lineup situations. For many managers, our actions and reactions to this and the next two or three weeks will be the difference between a playoff run and a total dud of a season. Keep in mind that one manager's disaster is another's opportunity. Here we go!

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

Mack Wilson Sr. had his best game of the season by far, both on the field and in the box score. At 6-6 with two pass breakups, he is finally starting to produce like a starting middle linebacker.

Wilson was not the only Arizona linebacker whose stock is on the rise. After a disappointing snap count in the opener, Akeem Davis-Gaither has seen his role steadily increase along with his numbers. He reached an 80% play share against San Francisco with a respectable 5-3 to show for it.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

With six tackles, eleven assists, and no splash plays to date, no defender has been a bigger disappointment thus far than Jessie Bates III. I would love to tell everyone that this is a coincidence and everything will be fine, but that is not the case. The Falcons have a different defensive philosophy this year. That is evident by the six sack performance they had in week two. One of the ripple effects of the scheme change is that Bates is not being used as aggressively. With a rookie at the other safety spot, Bates is seeing a lot more time as a single high, last line of defense, taking him out of the action too often.

The other part of the ripple is that Xavier Watts is emerging. He is working closer to the line in more of a traditional strong safety role, moving up into the box in many situations. The result was a solid 6 solo stops and a pair of batted passes in week one, and a mark of 8-1 in week three. I have a feeling we will see a lot more quality production from him going forward.

Kaden Ellis stepped up in week three, going 5-4-1. That said, his role remains the same. Ellis continues to walk up on the line as an extra pass rusher in many passing situations. If he continues to get to the quarterback, that is not necessarily a bad thing; however, his tackle production could continue to be a bit less than many of us expected.

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

I called out the expanded role of Teddye Buchanan in week two. The transition was completed on Monday night as he played 64 of a possible 68 snaps, going 4-4 in the game. Trenton Simpson contributed one assist on special teams but did not play on defense. Buchanan will be second fiddle to Roquan Smith, but the way Baltimore has been lit up on defense so far, there could be plenty of opportunities to go around.

With Justin Madibuike sidelined, John Jenkins had an expanded role in week three. He turned it into a strong (for a tackle) 5-3. Don't chase the numbers, though, as this is undoubtedly a mirage.

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Matt Milano missed week three with a pectoral injury. The Bills elected not to put him on IR, suggesting the injury is a minor strain that will not keep him out for long. With Milano sidelined, Dorian Williams (3-3) collected 75% of the snaps with Shaq Thompson going 4-2 in the third linebacker role on 34% of the action.

On a positive note, the Bills seem to be moving away from the even rotation we saw in week one. Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau saw a little increase in action in week two. Then, against Miami, Bosa barely came off the field, recording an 87% share while Rousseau was up to 66%.

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

The Lathon Ransom watch is heating up. The more this guy plays, the harder it is to keep him off the field. Ransom played 9 snaps in week one, 12 in week two, and topped 50% with 34 against the Falcons. Once again, his presence was felt as Ransom finished 4-1 with a forced fumble. One slight twist is that his increased role has come more at the expense of linebacker Trevin Wallace than safety Nick Scott. Scott lost a handful of snaps to Ransom in week three, while Wallace has seen his participation steadily slip from an 86% share in the opener to 58% in week three. It is a situation we need to keep watching, as Ransom would make a good box safety/nickel linebacker if the team turns to a big nickel as their base defense.

With Patrick Jones II sidelined, rookie Nic Scourton moved into the starting role, playing 85% of the snaps. He was unable to take advantage of the opportunity on the stat sheet, but this is a strong sign that the coaching staff has faith in him.

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

With fifteen combined stops and a pair of interceptions, Tremaine Edmunds had the best game of his career versus Dallas. History tells us that Edmunds is good for three or four big games each year with mediocre production in the rest. The point is, don't get too excited about it; he's still no more than a good third starter for us.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals got their rear ends handed to them by the Vikings, but there was one silver lining. On a defensive line that has been much maligned, Kris Jenkins Jr. stood out. His final stat line was 2-4-1.5. He has strong potential and could emerge as an IDP factor if the Bengals let him. Right now, Jenkins is mired in a relatively even four-man rotation.

Despite Cincinnati surrendering 48 points to Minnesota, Dax Hill turned in a real stinker at 2-0. The guy had 18 tackles and an interception in the first two games, so I'm writing this one off as a bad bounce, at least for now. With the Broncos, Lions, Packers, and Steelers on the schedule over the next month, I'll be putting him in my lineups.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

It was a slow start to the season for rookie Carson Schwesinger. Apparently, all he needed was a good matchup to get things rolling. He totaled 7-3-1 against the Packers and has an even better matchup on the schedule with the Lions this week. Through three games, opposing linebackers, as a position, are averaging over 18 tackles against Detroit. Get the kid into your lineup.

Grant Delpit stepped up big in the upset over Green Bay as well, going 6-3 with an interception.  The Lions have allowed four sacks and turned the ball over once in three games, so don't expect much in the big play columns for any Cleveland defenders this week. That said, Baltimore safeties combined for 17 tackles on Monday night. Don't hesitate to roll with Delpit in week four.

I will never tell anyone to sit Myles Garrett, but I will point out that Detroit has not allowed a sack since week one.

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

I wonder if Jerry Jones is second-guessing the trade that sent Micah Parsons to Green Bay? If not, I'll bet he will be after this week's game. Dallas has three sacks on the season as a team, and thus far, no one is showing signs of stepping up.

We know from his past that Jack Sanborn has the potential to post big tackle totals. Thus far, he has been so-so, averaging three solos and four assists. On the positive side, Sanborn has been on the field for more than 80% of the snaps in each of the last two games. Considering that the linebacker position has averaged nearly 18 combined stops against the Packers, this could be the week to slip Sanborn into our lineups.

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

We got good production from Alex Singleton (5-5) and Brandon Jones (7-4 Int.) last week. Pay attention to the matchup before plugging them in against the Bengals, especially when it comes to Jones. Cincinnati has not provided many opportunities for tackles. Safeties are averaging five solo and two assists as a position. It is a bit better for linebackers, but still nothing to get excited about. On the other hand, the Bengals' offense has been a goldmine of splash play production for opponents, giving up ten sacks to date and turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Managers have to decide if they are willing to risk the low tackle numbers on the chances of a big play. There is no doubt that we should have Jonathan Cooper and Nick Bonito on our lineups, though.

Denver drafted Jahdae Barron to be their slot defender for the next several years, but his reign has not yet started. The Broncos were in a nickel or dime on 89% of the snaps last week, with Jaquan McMillan working on 70% of them.

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

The Lions' defense fielded three linebackers more often than any other team in 2024. It looks like they will do so again this year. Jack Campbell went 8-0-1 with a forced fumble in week three and is on the verge of becoming an IDP stud. Despite playing every snap, the move outside seems to have rendered Alex Anzalone useless. Three games in, his season total is six tackles, eight assists, and half a sack. Anzalone struggled to produce consistently useful numbers from the outside linebacker positions in the past, but even then, it was not this bad. The difference is Derrick Barnes, who is becoming a viable option for us. He has been on the field for right around 80% of the snaps and has at least six combined stops in all three games. Barnes posted a season-best 4-3-1 on Monday night. He's not someone we want to count on as an every-week starter, but is roster worthy as solid, high-floor depth in many formats.  

For all of us waiting on Aidan Hutchinson to show that he is back both physically and mentally, Monday night was the sign we needed. He may not yet be 100% in either area, but Hutchinson now has a sack in each of the last two games and was all over the field against Baltimore, finishing at 2-0-1 with a forced fumble. He had Cleveland this week and Cincinnati in week five.

Al-Quadin Muhammad will be a red-hot waiver addition this week, and rightly so. In his two games as a starter following the injury to Marcus Davenport, Muhammad was 3-1-1 and 3-1-2.5. However, I remain hesitant to go all in on him. A late-round pick of the Saints in 2017, he never played a down for the team. Muhammad was an early down starter over much of his four years with the Colts, with a career best of 32-15-6 in 2021. An uneventful 2022 with the Bears was followed by a limited role as a backup for the Lions for nine games last year. He was very impressive on Monday night. I just have a hard time accepting that a player would suddenly break out seven years into his career. Stranger things have happened.

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

Edgerrin Cooper had no stats in the first half against Cleveland, but there is nothing to see here. He finished at 2-2 with a pass breakup while it was Quay Walker's day. My guess is that the Cleveland game plan was to run away from Cooper. That and the fact that neither team had much offense were the likely contributors.  

I had mentioned earlier my concerns for the Green Bay safeties. The deeper we get into the season, the more those concerns are proving correct. It doesn't help that Evan Williams and Javon Bullard have not had consistent roles. Bullard played about 85% of the snaps in the first two games, with more than Williams in week one. Against Cleveland, Williams went 4-2 on 95%, Javon Bullard 1-3 on 56%, and Xavier McKinney 2-4 with a pick on 100%. At this point, McKinney is the only real consideration as a starter for us, and that has more to do with big play potential than tackle production.  

If you have Keisean Nixon or Nate Hobbs on your roster, get them into your lineup this week against Dallas. The position is averaging nearly 18 solo stops, 5 assists, over 3 passes defended, and almost a turnover and a half versus the Cowboys.

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

E.J. Speed is not seeing much action on defense, but he is showing that he can still put up numbers if the chance comes his way. He played eight snaps in week three and was in on five stops. Meanwhile, Henry To'oto'o logged 89% of the snaps, totaling 3-1.

Danielle Hunter was shut out by the Jaguars, but don't let that keep you from starting him against the Titans this week. Tennessee has already allowed a league-high 15 sacks.  

Derek Stingley Jr. left Sunday's game with an oblique injury, which has his status for Week 4 in question.  If he sits, look for Tremon Smith to get the start.

The Texans parted ways with C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who had apparently rubbed people the wrong way in Houston. M.J. Stewart likely takes over as the starting free safety.

Guru's IDP Notes: Indianapolis Colts