This series of articles premiered exclusively at Footballguys last year. This year, we are bringing it back following the updates from the 2024 season.
I have spent time studying injury timelines and fantasy performance outcomes specifically for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends from 2017 to 2024. Altogether, there are over 2,000 injuries in my database. However, to avoid any confusion, it is important to lay some ground rules.
I am not saying that this is exactly what will happen. I do not have a crystal ball, nor should this report be used as one. Like most things in life, context is important. Every injury is unique.
Enjoy.
Fantasy Performance and Re-Injury Rate by Position
This section examines how different injuries affect a player's fantasy production. For example, High Ankle Sprains are notoriously bad for running backs, but are all injuries this devastating? Additionally, you'll get an analysis of how specific injuries might affect different positions.
I recommend bookmarking this article so that you can reference it in-season. It will help you navigate injuries that occur during the fantasy football season. Because in the NFL, injuries are inevitable.
Key:
- Avg Weeks Missed: How many weeks (including byes) a player missed on average
- Missed 5+ Weeks (%): Percent of sample that missed 5 or more weeks
- Re-Injury Rate (%): Calculated based on the percentage of players who experienced the same injury in the same season after returning. There are four buckets:
- Very High
- High
- Moderate
- Low
- Fantasy Points: Shows how a player performs in the first game post-injury. There are three buckets here:
- Severe Decline
- Moderate Decline
- Minimal Decline
- Lingering Effects: Examines if fantasy production continues to decline compared to a player's healthy fantasy points per game. These scores were placed into these tiers:
- Severe
- Moderate
- Minimal
- Snap Share Trend: Shows how a player performs in the first game post-injury. There are three buckets:
- Severe Decline
- Moderate Decline
- Minimal Decline
- Target Share Trend: Only for WRs and TEs, it shows how a player's target share was impacted post-injury with three buckets:
- Severe Decline
- Moderate Decline
- Minimal Decline
- When the sample was not large enough to portray accurate information, "NA" is depicted.
Injuries such as a torn ACL or a ruptured Achilles are not listed below, as they typically end a player's season and would impact the numbers below based on when the injury occurred.
Quarterbacks
| Injury | Avg. Weeks Missed | Missed 5+ Weeks (%) | Re-Injury Rate (%) | Fantasy Points | Lingering Effects |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Ankle Sprain | 2.3 | 8 | Low | Minimal Decline | Low |
| High Ankle Sprain | 3.7 | 23 | High | Minimal Decline | Low |
| Knee | 5 | 48 | Moderate | Minimal Decline | Low |
| Hip | 1.8 | 10 | Low | NA | NA |
| Elbow | 3.1 | 18 | Low | NA | NA |
| Hand/Wrist | 3.3 | 28 | Low | Moderate Decline | NA |
| Shoulder | 3.4 | 31 | High | Moderate Decline | Moderate |
| AC Joint Sprain | 3.1 | 25 | High | Moderate Decline | Moderate |
| Back | 3.2 | 25 | Low | NA | NA |
| Rib | 1.5 | 8 | Low | Moderate Decline | NA |
| Concussion | 1.3 | 4 | Moderate | Moderate Decline | NA |
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