This series of articles premiered exclusively at Footballguys last year. This year, we are bringing it back following the updates from the 2024 season.
I have spent time studying injury timelines and fantasy performance outcomes specifically for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends from 2017 to 2024. Altogether, there are over 2,000 injuries in my database. However, to avoid any confusion, it is important to lay some ground rules.
I am not saying that this is exactly what will happen. I do not have a crystal ball, nor should this report be used as one. Like most things in life, context is important. Every injury is unique.
Positional Volatility
You have likely heard that running backs are more susceptible to injury and that wide receivers are safer picks. It's one of the foundational pieces of the "Zero RB Strategy."
The graphs below show the range of outcomes for QB, RB, WR, and TE to play a full-season game merely based on historical comps for fantasy-relevant players, not considering ADP or injury history.
The table below provides more details about the likelihood of each position playing a full season (17 games), 14 games, or 12 games, based on historical comparisons from 2020 and 2024.