A good sports betting column should be backed by a profitable gambler with a proven track record. It should offer picks generated by a sophisticated and conceptually sound model. Most importantly, it should treat the subject with the seriousness it warrants.
This is not that column.
Instead, this will be an offbeat look at the sports betting industry-- why Vegas keeps winning, why gambling advice is almost certainly not worth the money, and the structural reasons why, even if a bettor were profitable, anything they wrote would be unlikely to make their readers net profitable, too.
While we're at it, we'll discuss ways to minimize Vegas' edge and make recreational betting more fun, explain how to gain an advantage in your office pick pools, preview games through an offbeat lens (with picks guaranteed to be no worse than chance), and touch on various other Odds and Ends along the way.
Some Trends of Note
As everyone knows, the key to succeeding as a sports bettor is slicing the data super thin and overfitting on any spurious trends you might notice. With that in mind, here are some notable trends as we head into the Divisional Round.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos managed to cover the spread against a Chargers squad that had pulled all of its meaningful starters in Week 18. This is notable because it's the only time they've covered the spread as a favorite since October; they were otherwise 0-6 against the spread in that span.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are 8-3 all-time in games where Mike Vrabel scores a touchdown, including 2-0 in the playoffs. Vrabel is unlikely to score a touchdown this weekend since he's a coach now, but I thought that was kind of neat.
Houston Texans
Last week was the first time in franchise history that the Houston Texans won a playoff game that didn't kick off at 4:30 Eastern. They are 6-5 in that time slot, but 1-3 in all others. Kickoff against the Patriots is set for 3 pm.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are undefeated against the Denver Broncos in the playoffs and have never allowed more than seven points in a game. (The Buffalo Bills have played the Denver Broncos twice in the playoffs.)
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is the #1 seed and the biggest favorite of the weekend, but a note of caution: Seattle faces off against division rival San Francisco, who split the season series this year. In NFL history, teams that split the season series have won exactly 50% of the playoff rematches. (Proof is left to the reader.)
Chicago Bears
The Bears won last week as 1-point underdogs. It was the first time they won a playoff game as an underdog in more than thirty years. Working in their favor is the fact that they've never lost a game—regular season or postseason—that was started by a quarterback with 3900 or more passing yards for the season. (Last week was the first such game in franchise history.)
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams travel to Chicago this week as a road favorite, which seems risky given the tendency of dome teams to struggle when traveling to cold-weather cities in the playoffs. Not only are the Rams winless in Chicago in the playoffs, but they also have yet to score a single point. (They lost 24-0 to the 1985 Chicago Bears in their lone visit.)
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers have never lost a Saturday evening playoff game in franchise history. (They've also never won a Saturday evening playoff game against anyone other than the Green Bay Packers, against whom they are 3-0. One of these streaks will definitely be coming to an end this weekend.)