A good sports betting column should be backed by a profitable gambler with a proven track record. It should offer picks generated by a sophisticated and conceptually sound model. Most importantly, it should treat the subject with the seriousness it warrants.
This is not that column.
Instead, this will be an offbeat look at the sports betting industry-- why Vegas keeps winning, why gambling advice is almost certainly not worth the money, and the structural reasons why, even if a bettor were profitable, anything they wrote would be unlikely to make their readers net profitable, too.
While we're at it, we'll discuss ways to minimize Vegas' edge and make recreational betting more fun, explain how to gain an advantage in your office pick pools, preview games through an offbeat lens (with picks guaranteed to be no worse than chance), and touch on various other Odds and Ends along the way.
Looking at the Futures
Since it's the start of the playoffs, I wanted to kick us off with a look at the current Super Bowl futures for all remaining teams. Newer readers should know that in three seasons of making Super Bowl picks, I have correctly identified the eventual champion each time. Picking the Chiefs to win after the 2022 season arguably wasn't that impressive since they were the front-runner (+330), but I also took them after 2023 when they had the 5th-best odds (+1000), writing:
Hello? +1000 odds on the defending Super Bowl Champions? A team with two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes II, first-ballot Hall of Fame head coach Andy Reid, and their best defense since 2016? Am I missing something here? They're a slam-dunk bet.
Then in 2024, I followed it up by picking the Eagles (again with the 5th-best odds, +700), writing:
Saquon Barkley had a chance to break the single-season rushing yardage record, but he told his coaches he'd rather be healthy and rested to maximize their chances in the playoffs. The Football Gods look favorably on this kind of sacrifice and will surely reward him with a ring
Will my hot streak continue this year? I guarantee it. (Because I'm picking everyone in the field again.)
Seattle Seahawks (+375)
The Seahawks led the NFL in average margin of victory despite facing the 7th-hardest schedule in the league (based on opponents' average margin of victory). They can win high-scoring games (38-37 against the Rams) as easily as low-scoring games (13-3 against the 49ers). They also have a bye and home-field advantage. Realistically, who is beating them?
Los Angeles Rams (+425)
They have the best offense in the league, and are uniquely balanced (ranking 3rd in net yards per attempt passing and 6th in yards per attempt rushing). The story that "defense wins championships" was written in the '70s; offense rules today's NFL. (The Rams have a pretty good defense, anyway.)
Denver Broncos (+650)
People will say they're not as good as their record, but the Broncos haven't lost a 1-score game since September. They've won 10 straight, including against three playoff teams. They had a game where they had three points through three quarters, only to score 18 in the fourth to win. They had a game where they had zero points through three quarters, only to score 33(!!!) in the fourth to win. They also have home-field advantage and a first-round bye. Is anyone on the field beating them by two scores?
Philadelphia Eagles (+850)
In 2023, the Chiefs stumbled to an 11-6 record. Their defense remained Top 3 in the league, but their offense fell below league average (in terms of schedule-adjusted points per game). In the playoffs, Kansas City reminded everyone that you're still the champion until you're not.
This year, the Eagles stumbled to an 11-6 record. Their defense remained Top 3 in the league, but their offense fell below league average (in terms of schedule-adjusted points per game). Just a reminder that Philadelphia is still the champion until they're not.
New England Patriots (+1000)
Why is the team with the presumptive MVP at quarterback and the best record and point differential in the AFC only at +1000 to win it all? Is this not just free money? Can someone please make it make sense to me?
Buffalo Bills (+1000)
Josh Allen sees his passer rating rise in the postseason (from 94.4 to 101.7—only Patrick Mahomes II and Kurt Warner have a higher mark on 400+ attempts). He sees his adjusted yards per attempt (which accounts for touchdowns and interceptions) rise from 7.4 to 8.0. He sees his yards per rush rise from 5.4 to 6.0. He's a perennial MVP candidate, arguably the best quarterback in the league, and when the stakes are the highest and the competition is the toughest, he gets even better. And you're going to bet against him to win it all? I think not.
Houston Texans (+1300)
The Texans' defense held opponents 7.2 points below their scoring average this year. For comparison, the 2015 Broncos (the last historically great defense to win the title) held teams 5.5 points below their season-long average. And unlike the 2015 Broncos, the Texans' offense is above league average.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500)
The AFC Playoffs run through Denver, which is a problem because no team has gone into Denver and beaten the Broncos this year. You know, except for the Jaguars, who trounced them by 14 points just three weeks ago. The Jaguars have spent the last two months ripping off dominant wins and complaining about being overlooked. They'll probably spend the next month doing it, too.
Green Bay Packers (+2200)
Ignore the fact that Green Bay limps into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. Historically, "finishing cold" doesn't tell us anything about a team's title chances. (To wit: the 2012 Ravens, who put up one of the hottest playoff runs in living memory, opened the year 9-2 before skidding into the playoffs with a 1-4 finish.) When healthy, the Packers are one of the most-feared teams in the league.
Chicago Bears (+2200)
Is Ben Johnson a wizard? Yes.
San Francisco 49ers (+2800)
Who's the best team in the NFC? The Seahawks? San Francisco beat them in Seattle. The Rams? San Francisco beat them in Los Angeles. The Eagles? Come on—Philadelphia posted a worse record against an easier schedule. Does anyone really buy that "you're still the champion until you're not" nonsense?
Head coach Kyle Shanahan has made the playoffs four times and made it at least to the conference championship game four times. Bet against him at your own risk.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3000)
Look, let's level—this franchise is cursed. Outside of the Minnesota Vikings, it's perhaps the most-cursed franchise in the NFL. (Note that "cursed" is different than "bad". In fact, you have to be fairly consistently good in order to qualify as cursed.) The team had Dan Fouts, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers starting for a combined 33 seasons and got a whopping zero titles out of it (but plenty of heartbreaking playoff losses). Every promising season has seen something go wrong and doom their chances.
What are the odds of a team drafting FOUR potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks and not getting a single title out of any of them? It seems extraordinarily unlikely. And this has been a century for breaking curses. We've bid farewell to the Curse of the Bambino, the Curse of the Black Sox, and the Curse of the Billy Goat. Peyton Manning won a championship (two, even!) Bill Cowher won a championship. The Bills won their first playoff game since 1995. The Lions won their first playoff game since 1991. The Bengals won their first playoff game since 1990. The Chargers' time is now.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000)
Experience matters in the playoffs, and Aaron Rodgers (22 career postseason games) has as much of it as the rest of the AFC field combined. (Josh Allen has 13 games, C.J. Stroud has 4, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert have 2 each, Bo Nix has 1, and Drake Maye will be making his first playoff start.)
Rodgers may be old. He may look washed up. So did Peyton Manning in 2015. Sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famers typically find a way.
Carolina Panthers (+20000)
Let's see, reasons to bet on the Panthers to win it all. Statistically speaking, it's better than just lighting your money on fire.
