A good sports betting column should be backed by a profitable gambler with a proven track record. It should offer picks generated by a sophisticated and conceptually sound model. Most importantly, it should treat the subject with the seriousness it warrants.
This is not that column.
Instead, this will be an offbeat look at the sports betting industry-- why Vegas keeps winning, why gambling advice is almost certainly not worth the money, and the structural reasons why, even if a bettor were profitable, anything they wrote would be unlikely to make their readers net profitable, too.
While we're at it, we'll discuss ways to minimize Vegas' edge and make recreational betting more fun, explain how to gain an advantage in your office pick pools, preview games through an offbeat lens (with picks guaranteed to be no worse than chance), and touch on various other Odds and Ends along the way.
Some Trends of Note
As everyone knows, the key to succeeding as a sports bettor is slicing the data super thin and overfitting on any spurious trends you might notice. Here are your Trends of Note(tm) for the Conference Championships!
Denver Broncos
A season-ending injury to Bo Nix greatly complicates the Broncos' path to a title, but it's worth mentioning that Denver hasn't lost a game in which Jarrett Stidham attempted a pass since the 2023 season. (I suppose it's also worth mentioning that the Denver Broncos are the only team in the NFL whose backup quarterback hasn't attempted a pass since the 2023 season.)
New England Patriots
In their entire 66-year franchise history, the New England Patriots have only ever lost one championship game as a 4.5-point favorite against a team starting its backup quarterback.
Seattle Seahawks
Last week, the Seattle Seahawks scored more points in the first 15 seconds than their opponent scored in the entire game. In the last three years, Seattle has never lost a game where it scored more points on returns than it allowed on defense.
Los Angeles Rams
A pair of three-point victories in the postseason has caused many to lose sight of the fact that the Rams were 2nd in the NFL in scoring differential this year, which is notable because each of the last ten Super Bowl champions has scored more points than it allowed during its run to the title.
Rams fans can take comfort in this fact as long as they don't check to see which team ranked 1st.