Reading the Defense: Week 4

Preseason Valuations May Yet Be Right!

In 2013, Footballguy Adam Harstad wondered how many weeks into the season would pass before to-date scoring became more predictive of year-end finish than preseason ADP. His analysis of the 2012 season and several subsequent seasons concluded that the answer is roughly four games.

Harstad conducted his analysis only for skill-position players. The average draft position for individual defensive players varies significantly from source to source compared to offensive players, making parallel analysis futile. Nevertheless, defenders who have disappointed for three weeks might be playing better than their box scores indicate. They could be primed for breakthrough games in Week 4 that would vault them up leaderboards nearer to their average draft positions.

Week 4 might be the last best chance to acquire a defensive lineman who's performing well but not quite finishing plays to generate fantasy points. The Week 4 waiver wire is once again testing the patience of fantasy gamers. The hottest commodity is a 30-year-old journeyman playing in relief of an injured starter on national television. Detroit's Al-Quadin Muhammad has almost certainly played the best, most productive game of his career. Muhammad is taking the roster spot of NFL starters and superior players for whom the stars haven't aligned.

Pass Rush Win Rate

A confluence of events results in a quarterback sack. The quarterback must drop back to pass and hold the ball long enough for a defender to reach and tackle him. Good coverage helps. Good offensive-line play neutralizes pass rush. Some say, "A sack is a quarterback stat." The aspect of the sack over which the pass rusher has the most control is how quickly he beats the blocker in front of him.

ESPN collects "pass-rush wins" from NFL Next Gen Stats. A pass rusher who beats the block within 2.5 seconds is credited with a win. ESPN then charts the rate of wins versus pass-rush attempts along with the rate at which blockers double-team the defender. If the opposite of a pass-rush win is a loss, the double-team mitigates the negative impact on the defense of the loss. Other defenders have fewer obstacles in their path to the quarterback.

Pro Football Focus also charts pass-rush wins but does not constrain itself with the 2.5-second time limit. PFF's leaderboard on this statistic thus differs somewhat from ESPN's.

Edge Rusher Pass Rush: Double Teams x Pass Rush Wins through week 3 pic.twitter.com/N4NG2MvkDC

— Stat Acccount (@AcccountStat) September 24, 2025

Stars Performing Like Stars?

All-Pros Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are head-and-shoulders above their competition on the PFF chart. Garrett is entrenched among the top twelve edge defenders on the Footballguys leaderboard. Parsons, meanwhile, is buried. He was dealt to Green Bay just days before the season started and was recovering from a back injury. His production will ramp up with his playing time and integration into the Packers' defense.

While Garrett and Chubb were two of the top five players selected at their position in summer fantasy drafts, Bradley Chubb was a deep-league target. The former Denver first-rounder missed all of 2024 after suffering a severe injury very late in his 2023 campaign. Chubb has collected a sack in each of his first three games, making him a fantasy DE1 after three weeks, but his statistical output belies his performance. He and the entire Miami defense are not playing well. Chubb should be considered a strong sell.

Yet another former first-rounder, Josh Hines-Allen, is frustrating fantasy gamers and attracting bad press from fantasy writers. The Jaguar has just 0.5 sacks, but he's registered 7 quarterback hits through 3 weeks. Both ESPN and PFF report him as one of the league's best at the snap. He'll rise toward his preseason DE2 status as 2025 progresses.

Only 7 EDGE in the NFL have a higher pressure rate through 3 weeks than Josh Hines-Allen, according to NFL Pro.

Getting pressure more consistently than ... Myles Garrett, Crosby, Hendrickson, Hutchinson, to name a few. Singlehandedly prevented TDs in Week 1 and 3. pic.twitter.com/4GpVtfprwc

— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) September 22, 2025

Dynamic Duos

Several sets of teammates appear close to each other on the pass-rush win rate leaderboards. Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter of the Texans were highly drafted and are performing near the top of the league, according to the analytics. They're also both top 25 fantasy options.

All of the same could be said for Denver's duo of Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, except that Cooper slid down expert rankings and drafts despite two strong seasons. Both Rams are highly regarded by PFF, but Byron Young is the player catching fantasy gamers' eyes. Sophomore Jared Verse was the more highly coveted player over the summer. The imbalance in production between the two Rams will level out in time.

The Seahawks' duo of Boye Mafe and Derick Hall is available on waiver wires almost everywhere. Mafe was a deep sleeper over the summer, but has yet to record a sack in 2025. Hall hasn't collected a sack either. Both are beating blocks with regularity; however, they play in a deep rotation that limits their opportunities. They should be monitored for growth as the season progresses and added in deeper leagues if other Seattle edge defenders get hurt and miss games.

Mike Macdonald has said the Seahawks need more quick pass-rush wins. Boye Mafe has delivered several of them. He ranks fourth among edge players in pass rush win rate, which measures how often a rusher beats his block within 2.5 seconds.

Here was a good one vs. Pittsburgh: pic.twitter.com/pdKCDb7jkK

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) September 18, 2025

Deep Sleepers Stirring?