Talent, Situation, Opportunity
Jets' running back Breece Hall was a popular second-round pick in 2024 fantasy drafts. He offered a disappointing return on that investment as the Jets' season fizzled.
Last summer, fantasy gamers waited until the third or fourth round of typical fantasy drafts, not because Hall isn't a talented player, but because the team's outlook for 2025 was tepid at best. Gamers were rightly concerned about Hall's situation. Braelon Allen appeared to pose a challenge to Hall's opportunity (volume) in August.
Adjusting Expectations
After the season's midpoint, two of the past summer's hottest names in IDP drafts are letting gamers down. Those in tackle-heavy formats drafted Indianapolis linebacker Zaire Franklin nearly by consensus. Green Bay's sophomore linebacker Edgerrin Cooper was a breakout candidate in big-play formats following an explosive rookie year.
In both cases, gamers overweight the player's responsibility for statistical compilation and underweight the contributions of situation and opportunity. No one played more zone coverage last year than the Colts (80%). As this column routinely reminds readers, zone coverage boosts linebackers' tackling frequency. The 2025 Colts, under a new coordinator, are playing zone coverage 65 percent of the time—the 23rd-highest rate in the league.
Zaire Franklin made 167, 179, and 173 tackles in three seasons manning the middle of Gus Bradley's conservative defense from 2022 to 2024. He's recorded just 60 in 10 games of the 2025 season. Franklin has fallen from 1st to 35th in fantasy points from Week 18 of 2024 to Week 10 of 2025.
Someone who argues that tackle volume is a strong indicator of high individual performance must account for Jacksonville's Devin Lloyd. He's made just 36 tackles combined in 320 snaps across 7 outings.
"[Devin Lloyd is] your Defensive Player of the Year one month into the season."@PSchrags talks about how Jaguars' DC Anthony Campanile has unlocked Devin Lloyd 🔓 pic.twitter.com/rCLJoPydxz
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 9, 2025
The Packers' defense played effectively last season, finishing 5th in expected points added (-72), 8th in sacks (45), and 4th in turnovers (31). Last spring, Green Bay replaced enigmatic Jaire Alexander with former Las Vegas slot cornerback Nate Hobbs on a 4-year $48 million deal in unrestricted free agency. The team made headlines by trading its nose tackle and two first-round draft picks for All-Pro edge defender Micah Parsons.
Despite its reputation, the Packers' defense has taken a step back in 2025. Through nine games, the unit is behind its 2024 pace with 22 sacks. They have forced just six turnovers, tied for the second-fewest in the league. The defense's EPA, in no small part due to the lack of turnovers, is merely -6.6, according to Sumer Sports.
Edgerrin Cooper, the Packers' LB2, is playing full-time, just as fantasy gamers hoped. He's already played 100 more snaps this year than last. He recovered two fumbles last year but none so far this year. He is credited with 0.5 sacks in 2025, 3 fewer than in 2024.
Cooper rushed the passer 56 times last year, according to Pro Football Focus. He's rushing slightly less frequently this season, with 40 attempts to date. Loss of opportunity to rush, therefore, is not Cooper's reason for fewer sacks. The defensive situation in which he plays is.
Cooper, like the unit around him, is not playing consistently great football this season. Hobbs has not been the answer on the boundary and has been benched. The 2024 defense put opposing offenses under greater duress, leading to more mistakes.
Cooper resides 22nd among fantasy linebackers to date. His running mate, Quay Walker, ranks 17th. Both have been adequate, even good fantasy assets, but not week winners.
This play was superhuman from Edgerrin Cooper.
— TitletownTalks (@TitleTownTalks) October 21, 2025
99% of linebackers in this league don't make that play.
Even in a bit of a down year, you still see the flashes — this dude's special. pic.twitter.com/ql9Ow56He4
A Study in Contrasts
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for IDP (individual defensive players) leagues. If this league is not a IDP (individual defensive players) league, you can edit your leagues here.