Every fantasy football offseason, the conversation inevitably turns to running back "mileage" and the belief that high-volume backs are more likely to get hurt the following year. It's a compelling narrative, but does the data actually support it?
I've collected data from 2017, examining NFL running backs who have achieved at least 300 total touches in a season and analyzing how many games they missed due to injury the following season. The results are below.
Running Back Injury Rate
Let's start with the baseline reality of the running back position. Accumulating data from 2017 to 2024, the numbers show that NFL RBs only have a 27% chance of playing a full season. Put another way, more than seven out of ten running backs will miss at least one game. The odds improve when we lower the threshold.
- 14 Games: 65% chance
- 12 Games: 79% chance
- Average Games Played: 13.7
However, for the most part, injuries are simply part of the territory for NFL running backs. Compared to other positions in fantasy (QB, WR, TE), it typically results in the most time missed. This is partly why some people have shifted to a "Zero RB" draft strategy.
Running Backs With Heavy Workloads
Now, what happens when we focus specifically on high-workload players? Using the same 2017–present window, I filtered out players who accumulated 300 or more touches in a season. Of the sample, 43 running backs qualified.
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