Let’s have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here’s how this article will work: each week, I’ll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it’ll just be a gut call. For every pick, I’ll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for. All else being equal, I’ll try to focus on prime-time games and the most entertaining spots on the schedule. However, I won’t force plays just to have action on every night game.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Payouts
Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:
- Two picks: 3x your entry
- Three picks: 6x your entry
- Four picks: 10x your entry
- Five picks: 20x your entry
Tracking
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
Pick 1
T.J. Hockenson
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T.J. Hockenson was less than a year removed from an ACL injury in 2024 but still averaged 4.2 receptions per game.
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Before his Week 15 injury in 2023, Hockenson averaged 6.5 catches per game and had at least five receptions in 11 of 14 games (79%). My expectation is that Hockenson's 2025 numbers mirror his 2023 numbers now that he is back to full health.
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson ready to bounce back after initially being "a step slower" during his return from injury last year: "I'm one of the top route-running tight ends in the league"https://t.co/fn6ROk31uq pic.twitter.com/J1yHK15YyW
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) September 1, 2025
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With Jordan Addison suspended for the first three weeks, Hockenson should open the season as the Vikings’ No. 2 receiving option behind Justin Jefferson.
D'Andre Swift
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There may be questions about D’Andre Swift’s chances of being a true every-down back under Ben Johnson, but his role as a pass catcher is secure. Johnson featured him heavily as a receiver during their time together in Detroit.
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In three seasons with the Lions, Swift averaged 3.9 receptions for 30.0 yards on 5.1 targets per game.
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He recorded at least 15 receiving yards in 31 of 40 games (78%) with Detroit.
