Week one is in the books, and it's time to get busy. Those of you who have been reading my work for a while have heard this sermon before. Week one always brings success stories, surprises, opportunities, disappointments, landmines, and mirages. The challenge is to figure out which category players fit into so we don't shoot ourselves in the foot.
Simply put, don't overreact to raw numbers. If a player overperforms or underperforms expectations, do your best to figure out why before picking up or cutting him. This is particularly important when it comes to those guys you were really high on during draft season, who put a turd in the week one punch bowl. I'll do my best to help you avoid the bobbytraps, so let's go!
Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals
Not only did Jack Gibbens make the start at linebacker and put up decent numbers at 5-2-.5, but he played virtually every snap and outperformed Mack Wilson Sr., who was a rather disappointing 2-4 with a pass breakup. The decision on Wilson is case by case, depending on your roster situation. He should have better numbers on most weeks. Gibbens, however, should be on the waiver list of managers in need at the position.
Josh Sweat finds himself in an ugly but familiar situation. He led the team's edge position in snaps with just 29. It is the same situation that has plagued his fantasy career since his time in Philadelphia. A four-man rotation with everyone seeing virtually equal playing time.
Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons
Divine Deablo was the Falcons' three-down linebacker as expected. With three tackles and four assists, his numbers were not impressive. That has also become expected, though he did bail out anyone who started him with a fumble recovery.
The unknown going into week one was at the other linebacker position. Unfortunately, chapter one of that story is not what we were hoping for. The good news is that Atlanta had two linebackers on the field full time. The bad news is that rookies Kendal Daniels and Harold Perkins Jr. shared playing time, with Kendal seeing about 67% of the action. We'll have to keep an eye on this one. For now, keep Daniels on your taxi squad or find a better use for the roster spot. Christian Harris was inactive (coach's choice).
Za'Darius Smith turned heads with his stats at 3-0-2. Unless we count Brandon Dorlus, who saw action on the outside at times, the rest of the players at the position combined for 1-2 with a forced fumble. Dorlus and Cameron Thomas were the starters while Smith played 16 snaps. It's hard to say if the limited time is because he joined the team late, or that is just his role. Week two will give us a better idea.
Veteran safety Sydney Brown and rookie corner Avieon Terrell split time as the nickel DB.
Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens
Trey Hendrickson and Tavius Robinson made the start at edge. The good news is that both played at least 74% of the snaps. The bad news is that Hendrickson was virtually invisible at 1-0-0. Robinson was a little better at 1-2-1. The fact that he was on the field for 81% of the snaps is enough to put him on the radar.
Baltimore played a big nickel on 52 of 54 plays with Jaylinn Hawkins as the third safety.
With Teddye Buchanan still recovering from last year's injury, Trenton Simpson made the start next to Roquan Smith. Simpson was 3-1 with 2 tackles for loss on a 60% playshare.
Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills
Terrel Bernard slid well down draft boards this summer, largely due to the injuries that have hampered him over the last few years. He is always productive when all the parts work, and week one was no exception at 6-6 and a recovery. Now, if he can just stay healthy.
Signs during the summer and preseason pointed to rookie Kaleb Elarms-Orr starting at the weak side position. Buffalo pulled that rug out from under us, starting Dorian Williams instead. Williams managed 9 stops with 4 solos, but saw less than 70% of the snaps. Elarms-Orr logged eight plays on defense.
Greg Rousseau opened the year big, going 4-0-2, with 2 forced fumbles and a batted pass. The question is, will he turn out to be the same Rousseau who has about 3 games like that every year and does next to nothing in about ten others? I'll venture to say yes. He came out of the gate hot in 2025 as well. He even played over 70% of the snaps in most weeks, but was not able to sustain the production with any consistency. On the other hand, both he and Bradley Chubb had an 80% playshare in the opener, so there is a hint of optimism. Chubb was a disappointing 0-4-0 despite all the opportunities.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson played in the slot for much of the 2025 season. He has settled in at strong safety for 2026. His 6-2 on 100% playing time is no surprise. Gardner-Johnson is always productive when healthy; he simply hasn't been able to stay on the field.
Ed Oliver logged 82% of the snaps and had a solid outing against the Texans, going 2-3 with a fumble recovery. He will not be available in most leagues that require tackles, but Deone Walker probably is. After going 3-3-1 against the Texans, he will be a hot commodity on this week's waiver wire. With the position being so shallow, we can't afford to wait on a second good week before making a move for him. If you have a need, roll the dice.
Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers
The Carolina defense came within a sniff of allowing 60 points to the Bears. If they had other options, we might expect a bunch of personnel changes before week two. In an every-down role, Devin Lloyd had good numbers at 9-4. Bobby Okereke was the other starter despite being with the team for a couple of weeks. His 88% play share is encouraging, though his 3-3 on the stat sheet had to be subsidized by a forced fumble to salvage his fantasy value. I expect both of these players to give us solid production on most weeks, but keep an eye on Tyrel Dodson, who was signed to the practice squad.
Though his numbers were not particularly impressive at 2-1-1, Jaelan Phillips was on the field for 77% of the snaps against Chicago.
Tre'von Moehrig played every snap, posting an ugly 0-3. Meanwhile, Nick Scott had a solid 5-2 on 96%. I'm putting this one in the mirage column. Moehrig is the strong safety on what could be a struggling defense. He will bounce back.
Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears
Devin Bush turned in a disappointing 2-4 despite playing 96% of the snaps against Carolina. Adding a fumble recovery, he was still much more productive than teammate T.J. Edwards, who was credited with one assist on 68 plays. I'm leaning toward putting this one in the mirage column, though I'm concerned it may be a landmine. It's been a while since Edwards was that highly productive guy we had to start every week. The injuries may have taken a toll. I'm not giving up on him this early, but he's on a short leash for me.
It was a productive game for rookie safety Dillon Thieneman, who finished 8-2 with a pass breakup. Everyone is talking about the Bears' offensive explosion. No one seems to have noticed that they gave up 37 points to a mediocre Panthers offense. Between the questions week one brings up about the linebackers and the fact that Kevin Byard III was a perennial IDP stud at the position, this could be the tip of the iceberg for Thieneman.
Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals spent a lot of money and draft capital on the defense, and it showed. Everyone expected them to be better. Four sacks, four takeaways, and a score is above and beyond. It started up front, where Dexter Lawrence II had a marginal impact on the stat sheet, but a huge impact on the field. What stood out most to me, however, was the play of the second-year linebackers. Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight Jr. are not rookies anymore. Flying around, hitting people, and making impact plays, they looked like different players. Carter stepped up with 5-4-.5 and a forced fumble on 100% of the snaps. Knight went 5-2 with a recovery for a score on 89% and may have played 100% had he not missed some snaps with cramps.
The numbers weren't huge, but Myles Murphy and Boye Mafe each contributed big plays with a sack and a half, two forced fumbles, and a recovery between them. I am a bit concerned that neither player exceeded 65% of the snaps, but there is room for optimism.
Daxton Hill had a strong outing with seven solo stops. He played every snap, working in the slot when the team fielded nickel personnel, sliding outside in base looks. He was productive in a similar role early in his career, so the numbers are probably not a mirage.
Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns
In a game where the Jaguars ran the ball over 30 times in a blowout, Cleveland's linebackers were ominously quiet. Carson Schwesinger managed ten tackles, but seven of them were assists, while Quincy Williams went 3-1. On the bright side, both were on the field full time, with Williams missing a couple of plays. Disappointing as the numbers were, I am not concerned about either of these players.
The Browns' lone sack went to tackle Mason Graham, who turned in a solid 3-2-1. The 2025 first-round pick had a less-than-stellar rookie campaign, failing to land a sack all season, but he is a player who came with grand expectations. It's only one game, but put him on the radar and see what happens in week two.
It would have been nice to see Jared Verse get the 75% play share he was used to with the Rams, but the 65% he and Isaiah McGuire both saw in week one will have to do. Verse finished 3-1 with a tackle for loss, but was a bigger factor on the field than the numbers suggest, particularly against the run.
Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys
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