Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Predicting the Future is Tricky
Fantasy football is tough. We have to sort through a mountain of information to make the best lineup and roster decisions possible.
But that's not the hardest part.
The hardest part is connecting the dots created by each week's outcomes to try to determine which direction a given situation is taking.
Assessing in Real Time
If you want to get a feel for just how difficult predicting the future is, go back and review the Footballguys Average Draft Position (ADP) data heading into the season.
Turns out the things we consider mortal locks are anything but. Conversely, it's not at all unusual for players we're convinced will fall short to rise up and outperform our expectations.
When that happens, we have to reassess, redirect, and make new predictions based on the changing information.
Here's the Job
Specifically, we need to figure out if the players who are blowing past our anticipated outcomes can keep doing that or if the surprising production is nothing more than a momentary blip on the fantasy radar.
Let's look at some examples and see what we can sort out. We'll start with the . . .
Running Backs
We all know the drill at running back. Opportunities matter. Unexpected opportunities open the door to unexpected value. There are no guarantees. Players have to have the ability and the offensive ecosystem necessary to leverage those opportunities. But we have multiple success stories five weeks into the season.
The Biggest Steel(er)
Jaylen Warren racked up a career-high 36.8 fantasy points against the Colts this past Sunday, and he has now scored 20 or more in two of his past three games.
He's also had at least 20 touches per game over the past three weeks.
But volume is only part of the story.
Against the Colts, Warren became the first player since Herschel Walker in 1986 to record a 50-yard touchdown run and an 80-yard touchdown reception in the same game.
That combination of volume and big-play ability has yielded huge fantasy dividends.
Warren is at the top of the ADP All-Star running back list because he's delivering clear RB1 production despite being drafted as a lower-end RB3 (RB27).
Through five games, he has 410 rushing yards, 230 receiving yards, 19 receptions, and two touchdowns. His 95 fantasy points rank eighth among running backs, representing a 19-position improvement over his draft slot.
How'd We Get Here?
As ESPN.com's Brooke Pryor reminded readers this week, since earning a spot on the roster with a standout training camp performance as an undrafted rookie in 2022, Warren has almost always been part of a split backfield.
That was coach Mike McCarthy's vision, too, when the team signed free agent Rico Dowdle in the offseason. But with Dowdle still recovering from a twice-dislocated toe in the Week 2 loss to the New England Patriots, Warren was forced into the spotlight.
He took it and ran with it. Since Week 3, Warren has played at least 85 percent of the Steelers' offensive snaps.
Sustainable or Not?
McCarthy said Sunday that the Steelers hope to have Dowdle back on the field in Week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the coach admitted Warren has thrived with a heavier workload.
"He's hauling it right now for us," McCarthy said of Warren. "There's a number you'd like to continue to give him. He's produced, so it's been heavy. It'd be great to get Rico back this week, too . . . Having him as a one-two punch was the vision of this offense, but Jaylen's crushing it right now. He's been awesome for us."
Dowdle isn't going away, but expecting Warren to continue getting the lion's share of the carries (and receiving work out of the backfield) is reasonable.
I wouldn't expect him to continue at a top-10 pace, but a solid RB2 with RB1 upside any given week?
Absolutely.
Panther On the Prowl
A lot of things have gone right for the Carolina Panthers so far this season. As USA Today's Tim Weaver notes, quarterback Bryce Young is finally playing up to his lofty draft status. His receiving corps is maximizing Young's ability, and he's doing the same for them.
Fantasy investors are getting great returns across the board here, but Chuba Hubbard, who appears to have regained his former explosiveness, is a thing again.
Last we saw him was in Week 4, when Hubbard finished with 20 carries for 122 yards and two rushing touchdowns against the Lions; big plays were part of the equation.
Hubbard matched his career high with four explosive runs (10-plus yards). According to Next Gen Stats, he also gained 82 yards after contact and forced seven missed tackles for 42 extra yards, all season highs.
It marked his third career game with at least 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Sustainable or Not?
Coming off the bye week, Hubbard has played only four games but has already accumulated 79 fantasy points, ranking RB14 overall after being drafted as RB36. More impressively, his 19.8 points per game rank among the better rates at the position.
The combination of production and modest draft cost makes him one of the strongest values this season, and there's reason to believe he can sustain it.
We've seen it before.
In 2024, as the primary back in this same Dave Canales offense, Hubbard was RB15 overall and RB13 on a points-per-game basis. With Jonathon Brooks on IR, nobody on the current roster is going to cut into Hubbard's workload.
Viking Conquering with Workload
Against the Saints in Week 5, Aaron Jones Sr. played his highest percentage of offensive snaps in a game this season despite briefly leaving with a knee injury. He has had at least 23 touches in three of the past four games with Jordan Mason on injured reserve, scoring 15 points per game during that stretch.
Since Week 2, Jones ranks third in snap share, third in rush share, and 11th in fantasy points scored.
His ceiling isn't sky-high, but he's making the most of a huge workload.
Available around pick 125 as RB42, Jones is currently RB15 with 72.2 points. That's a 27-position gain.
Sustainable or Not?
Jones' 97 rushing attempts, 410 rushing yards, and 12 receptions suggest he's providing meaningful volume rather than simply benefiting from an unsustainable touchdown spike.
But there's an issue.
ESPN's Ben Solak wrote on Tuesday that the impending return of Mason, viewed as a co-starter before injuring his thumb, should not be underrated.
Solak said the Vikings "want to do so much more in the designed running game with Kyler Murray and in the power play-action game with Mason as a bruising back."
As impressive as Jones has been in Mason's absence, it was already fair to wonder if the workload the 31-year-old Jones has seen the last four weeks is sustainable.
Minnesota is on its bye in Week 6 and resumes play in Week 7. Proactive fantasy managers should be checking Mason's availability in their leagues, and Jones investors might want to start resetting their expectations.
In the Conversation
Ollie Gordon II and Emanuel Wilson have delivered extraordinary returns relative to their draft prices. In fact, Wilson's 56-position gain and Gordon's 66-position gain are larger than those of Warren, Hubbard, and Jones.
But neither has provided the weekly impact of Warren or Hubbard.
Conversely, Ken Walker III was drafted as a top-10 running back and has produced as a top-three performer on a points-per-game basis. That's tremendous value in absolute terms, but not quite the same draft-day steal.
Wide Receivers
As with the running backs, we're going to continue separating the biggest statistical bargains from the players who have provided the most meaningful fantasy advantage.
The key distinction is that a receiver drafted as WR80 who is currently WR30 represents an enormous positional gain, but a receiver drafted as WR45 who is producing as a WR10 has delivered a more significant weekly lineup advantage.